Miami Dade Cuban-American Support for Obama: Huge ... by gimleteye

Amandi and Bendixen continue to provide an earth-shattering analysis of the recent election: "Miami Dade County Precinct Analysis Confirms Exit Poll Data Conclusions on Unprecedented Cuban-American Support for Obama".

With final precinct results now available from the Miami-Dade County Division of Elections, an analysis of the top Hispanic precincts in Miami-Dade County confirms the exit poll findings from Bendixen & Amandi International, Edison Research, Pew Hispanic Center, NBC News and Fox News that a historic percentage of Cuban voters cast ballots for a Democratic candidate for President in the 2012 elections.

The analysis was performed by examining the 48 largest Hispanic precincts across Miami-Dade County, each with a minimum of 2500 Hispanic voters. These precincts also have the highest concentration of Hispanic voters in the county (between 68% and 92%).

These precincts are located primarily in Hialeah, Westchester, Little Havana, Doral, Kendall and other predominately Cuban-American neighborhoods across Miami-Dade County.

The average of the Presidential vote in these 48 precincts is: Barack Obama 51% and Mitt Romney 49%. The B&A exit poll of Cuban Americans had the following results: Mitt Romney 52% and Barack Obama 48%.

It should be noted that voters of Cuban origin account for approximately 75% of the Hispanic electorate in Miami-Dade County.

Bendixen & Amandi International conducted a statewide exit poll of more than 4800 Hispanic voters which revealed that President Obama secured 48% of the Cuban American vote in the state of Florida – an historic high for a Democratic Presidential candidate in Florida.

So why is this earth-shattering? The analysis confirms that the political status quo, organized around Cuban American Republicans, has finally collapsed under its own weight. This has enormous implications for both political parties, but especially for the political lobbyists who run campaigns.

If you are a candidate for office in Miami Dade, you no longer need to ingratiate yourself to the status quo: the campaign funding machinery leveraged through the Latin Builders Association and other entities/ cartels controlled by the Cuban American business elite. "The Castro Card"? It's finished!

Probably the best example of this, is the near win by Ross Hancock against Erik Fresen for state legislature. Hancock, vastly outspent by Fresen (who was funded by pro-gambling, sugar, and other interests) came within a few percentage points of winning.

What the new demographics of the election also throw into doubt: the political future of Marco Rubio. Rubio is weighted by history and by alliances with Bush/ GOP machinery that faltered badly in the recent election. It is not just a matter of immigration: the non-Cuban Hispanic demographic is socially liberal in ways that act as an anti-magnetic force to conservative values like the obsessive focus on women's right-to-choose.

The obsessive character of the radical GOP right will continue to repel non-Cuban and younger Cuban American Hispanics.

Finally, a rumor arrives that Ana Sol Alliegro, the self-proclaimed political "bad girl" of the GOP -- and the woman who can tie David Rivera and Marco Rubio together -- has fled to Australia, until the feds drop their investigation. Maybe she's hanging with Joe Gersten and his support group. It could be a long wait. Any tips, welcome.

Type of Voting for President in Miami Dade County. By Geniusofdespair

There is something unacceptable here. Can you find it? Almost 1,000 votes were provisional and of that they are overwhelmingly for Obama.  I think this number has to be examined. How did it get so high? Provisional ballots are what they give you at the polls to shut you up when they won't allow you to vote.  Why were so many given out to valid voters? Also, how many did they actually have that they didn't count in the election?

Nice to Look At. By Geniusofdespair

Not so nice to look, the Conservative spin:

That $155 Million Jury Settlement Reversed by the Judge, I Hope the Principal Can Collect. By Geniusofdespair

Eric Soroka

I do know Eric Soroka the subject of this lawsuit. He has always been consistently rude to  me so I cannot believe he was acting in good faith in this instance.

As you may or may not have read, the Principal of the Aventura School of Excellence says she was wrongfully fired and was abused by the Aventura City Manager (City is in charge of charter school). Katherine Murphy, the Principal, brought suit against Aventura City Manager Eric Soroka and the Charter School Company running the school for the City.  In a jury trial Katherine Murphy prevailed and won a $155 Million dollar lawsuit including $500,000 against Eric personally. Circuit Court Judge Rosa Rodriguez didn't agree with the Jury.

The judge overturned the award 5 days later. Benedict Kuehne, her able attorney said: "In a single ruling that was expedited for no apparent reason, Judge Rodriguez undid the tremendous work done by the jury in assessing and evaluating the wrongs done to Dr. Murphy by the defendants. This unprecedented decision will be the subject of further review as Dr. Murphy continues her necessary and vigorous fight for justice that has been against denied her. She intends to press for reinstatement of the jury’s $155.7 million verdict in her favor."

 As I stated in my last article "Dumb Shit", written in 2011, Soroka is the City Manager of Aventura, and his wife is City Clerk. Most Cities I have been to, you can pretty much just walk in.  They take your license and your photo to walk in Aventura City Hall (and the public Library in the building). You must then RETURN the picture tag when you leave. I suppose so Eric can look at who was in the building. I crumbled mine up and the guard had a cow, lecturing me on not following directions. He actually tried to flatten it out. I have never had my photo taken at any other City hall I have been to in Miami Dade County (Homestead, Coral Gables, South Miami, Key Biscayne, City of Miami, Miami Beach, etc.)

If you write to your City Commissioner or the Mayor to complain about either the City Manager or City Clerk in Aventura, be warned that either Eric or his wife Teresa Soroka reads your email and, in my case, they were the only ones to ever respond to emails NOT addressed to them.  How do you get in touch with the Commissioners in Aventura? You have to call them at home.

How do the Commissioners and Mayor know that Eric and Teresa are doing a good job?  Because Eric and Teresa tell them so.  You really can't get past this cartel of power in Aventura.  You might wonder how this could happen. Well I can only believe that the people elected are lazy.  They don't have to do anything but show up at meetings and the dynamic duo does the rest. It has worked well for all involved.  The people in Aventura are pretty happy with the nicely landscaped city, unless they have a problem and then the nightmare begins for them personally. They can never get past the firewall. The Aventura Mayor and Commission, avert their eyes but they know what is going on.  Mayor Gottlieb came in insisting that she and the Commission have a secretary not beholden to Soroka but in a short time she came around like a good Stepford wife and is now in lockstep with the rest. Effortless governing has its appeal.

When I read the court documents, I believed everything that Dr. Katherine Murphy said.  Not because he cursed at me or belittled me but because I think he has a flawed character from my dealings with him.  He is a bully. I don't like bullies. It appears that the Jury also believed Dr. Murphy and didn't have much regard for Soroka. I think the judge was wrong to overturn the award. In my opinion the City government in Aventura should have fired him long ago. Let me leave you with a quote from her Attorney Ben Kuehne:

The ruling is unprecedented, unwise, and entirely subject to question. The appellate court will be the next decider. Meanwhile, Dr Murphy is victimized again for proven outrageous conduct that the City of Aventura explains is just part of what it expects its Manager to do. Disgraceful!

Read some of the outrageous things that the Principal says happened (you will be shocked):

Florida Firewall Fails GOP Strategists ... by gimleteye

It is clear enough now, in retrospect of the dismal performance of county elections in Florida's most populous counties. The Midwest and Ohio were the Obama firewall for the Democrats. Florida was the firewall for the GOP.

The way the GOP firewall was meant to work was this: 1) voter suppression by shortening voting hours and 2) a 10 page ballot stuffed with ridiculous measures by right wing majority dominating the Florida legislature (many, from Miami-Dade County).

As Karl Rove demonstrated in his own election eve ether on Fox News, it was necessary for Ohio to remain in dispute in order to throw the chaos to Florida, just like what happened in 2000 -- the election through which Rovian vanity was cemented into GOP politics. The nation suffered the consequences, and so have GOP billionaires ever since.

It is classic disinformation strategy to claim as the GOP is claiming today that Florida's election processing delays were inadvertent.

County election officials assign blame to the volume of paperwork. Mayor Carlos Gimenez convenes a blue-ribbon panel of "fair and balanced" county commissioners. Nonsense.

Chaos in Florida in the recount was a GOP strategy, not a mistake.

There is further proof in yesterday's attack by Rove, accusing the Obama campaign of "voter suppression": if you want to know the heaviest tool in the Rove electioneering box, it as attacking at exactly his opponent's point of strength. (ie. 2004 Swiftboat and John Kerry) It is not going to work this time.

I would not want to be a billionaire investor in GOP candidates and causes these days.

The Obama election highlights how enervating GOP campaigns through fear and loathing of 'the other' points to a shrinking white voter base. But John Boehner and Mitch McConnell, the GOP standard bearers in Congress,  don't have the willpower or guts to tell their donors the bad news. Rove is too invested in the politics and psy-ops based on the Bush model.

Today's news from Florida will be anticlimactic, of course. The Florida Firewall will be mothballed by the GOP who now need to figure out how to keep Florida from turning to a blue state. Meanwhile the blue ribbon panels to fix Florida voting (once and for all!) and dissembling by state officials will go into high gear, throwing out a smokescreen like clouds of DDT to wave off West Nile mosquitoes.

There are a couple of local races that EOM will pay more attention to, once the final campaign finance reports are filed.

First of all, Jose Javier Rodriguez defeated Alex Diaz de la Portilla for the state house. Rodriguez, a Democrat, is exactly the profile -- well educated, reasonable, and committed to public service -- that is needed to repel the radical right.

Ross Hancock, a political newcomer, very nearly defeated GOP leader Erik Fresen for state senate. In the evening's most interesting outcome, Hancock ran with the support of Sierra Club and civic activists who were deeply opposed to Fresen's leadership on the pro-casino issue and embrace of every other right-wing scheme that energizes Tallahassee. Hancock's effort should send shivers through the status quo in Tallahassee. We'll look closely at those campaign finance reports.

There are two main conclusions to draw from the elections in Miami-Dade with deep implications for Florida. First, the tyranny of the old Cuban American guard -- that has weakened over successive election cycles -- is finally finished. Credit to Sergio Bendixen who, for twenty years, has predicted this outcome.

This is bad news for the GOP and its local funders from the Growth Machine. As we have documented on EOM, the GOP political model that worked in the past was based on contributions organized through the Latin Builders Association and funneled toward organizing districts based on hatred against Castro. The Miami-Dade GOP has a problem: anti-Castro vitriol (that was, by the way, the content of the anti-Obama ad that fell flat on its face in the last weekend of the campaign) is boring and tiresome to non-Cuban Hispanics. The opportunity is for Democrats to find clear and compelling messages to organize non-Cuban Hispanic voters.

The second conclusion from the election: Gov. Rick Scott is finished.

Who will defeat Scott in 2014? I certainly hope it is NOT from the north Florida / Bill Nelson wing of the state Democrats. They have let down Democrats ever since Buddy McKay. My vote would be for Dan Gelber who remains the only reliable, articulate Democrat in the state of Florida.

Friggin' Commissioner Joe Martinez's Departing Shot. By Geniusofdespair

Is this presentation a parting shot of disrespect to Dennis Moss by outgoing Commissioner Joe Martinez?  The WATF group (Wetland's Task Force was charged with recommending rewritten rules for DERM) is having a presentation of their findings. Why on earth do we have to hear separately from Alice Pena who ran a lousy campaign against Dennis Moss in retaliation for his steadfast stand against her wacky wishes.

This woman was part of the WATF group and her voice was heard there ad nauseam. She never shut up. She trotted out all her pals to make comments at every meetings. If she didn't like the outcome of the group's findings, it is only because she is so radical and her views are so off base. Shut this woman up already. She is being heard first at the Commission meeting today. Why couldn't Martinez have recognized her when the group was making the presentation instead? This is an end run around the group and a kick in the butt to Moss. I hope Dennis Moss is there to set the record straight on Pena.  Commissioner Suarez, Heyman, Sosa, Monestime and Edmonson, lets see you flex your muscles against the unreformable majority on the Commission, and send this woman packing.

National Disgrace: A planned election fiasco in Florida ... by gimleteye

Florida still hasn't declared. Another bungled presidential election cycle where the process failed. While the nation's pundits are all competing to interpret the Obama victory, Eye On Miami would like to ask the US Department of Justice to investigate and for readers to dwell, for a moment, on the disaster that would have unfolded if Obama had not held the Midwest firewall or not held Ohio.

That scenario would have thrown the election right back to Florida, just like 2000, where eventually the US Supreme Court selected a president. So far, we haven't heard a single Democratic leader in the state (are there any?) raise a peep of protest at the near train wreck. It is Thursday morning. Florida still hasn't declared.

The worst of it: the press documented how the Republican legislature and Gov. Rick Scott conspired to suppress the vote, diminishing chances of an Obama victory. The lengthy ballot wasn't inadvertent. It was loaded with right-wing, extremist measures on purpose: to make it more difficult to process ballots from people who have a hard time reading English. Hispanics and African Americans.

This isn't speculation. The intent of voter suppression is fully briefed in acrimonious litigation between state GOP officials and the former head of the state Republican Party, Jim Greer. As noted by Politico this morning, "... exit polls showed the same share of African Americans turned out as four years ago, something that GOP turnout models did not anticipate."

Gov. Rick Scott could have authorized and expanded early voting. The early voting lines in Miami-Dade were extraordinarily long. Mayor Carlos Gimenez, a Republican, could have insisted on a competent response to what was clearly heading to an election day logjam that would hold for days beyond the closing of polls. The absentee and provisional ballots are still being counted by hand, one by one. That is a strategy, not a mistake. "We didn't think they'd turn out more of their base than they did in 2008, but they smoked us," one Romney operative told Politico. "It's unbelievable that they turned out more from the African American community than in 2008. Somehow they got 'em to vote."

It is excruciating to imagine the entire nation could now be hostage to Miami's incompetence and GOP radicals, again.

We are at Thursday morning. The nation would be in an uproar, waiting for Florida. Again. Had that happened, GOP operatives; Jeb! Bush, Rick Scott, Marco Rubio and the legions of GOP lobbyists and attorneys who infest the state capitol like fleas on a dog would be racing to the TV cameras.

This scenario occurred to me instantly, in that brief, extraordinary moment after three networks had projected Ohio for Obama and on Fox News, Karl Rove anchored the news desk and exposed his plan to an audience of millions: Fox needed to stonewall, reject the professional analysis of its own election experts, and delay projecting Ohio. Fair and balanced? This was not a "Hail Mary Pass" by a political quarterback who had cost his investors billions and the nation, trillions. You couldn't fit this guy's balls in a Boeing Dreamliner.

The New York Times raised the question more delicately: "What role was Karl Rove playing when he heatedly contradicted Fox News?"

To the Times, Rove offers the excuse that "the ghosts of 2000 prompted him to act." Those weren't ghosts. Rove was setting up Florida and the federal judiciary, where he has leverage through judges he personally vetted during the Bush terms, to put Mitt Romney in the White House.

A lengthy ballot -- stacked with ridiculous measures stuffed by right-wing GOP legislators, confusion, inadequate voting equipment -- caused outrageous and lengthy delays. But those waits of up to six hours are nothing compared to the controlled experiment of botching a presidential election in order to prevail through post-election chaos.

According to the Miami Herald, "Deputy Elections Supervisor Christina White insisted Wednesday morning that an unusually long ballot and high voter turnout, which was 64 percent, was to blame, not a lack of resources. “Its not that there were any problems or glitches,” White told reporters. "It’s about volume and paper left to be processed,"

The result is a disgrace, but in its fundamental respects mirrors the government-designed-to-fail that we document at Eye On Miami. The anger should be directed where it belongs: at incumbent legislators and county officials that Floridians dumbly return to office one election cycle after another.

How many of those standing in long lines even know the names of their state representatives and state senators? Or why, in November 2000, then mayor of Miami-Dade County Alex Penelas took a flight to Spain "on personal business" instead of staying with the ship, at the elections department, where GOP operatives helicoptered in from Washington DC successfully disrupted the recount?

So there it is: thank you, Ohio, because you have shown the nation the real political face of Florida.

Fernand Amandi, from Miami, hits a grand slam in presidential election ... by gimleteye

You know Fernand Amandi, of Bendixen & Amandi International in Miami.

Fernand, Sergio Bendixen and their team managed and implemented the Obama campaign's Hispanic outreach. While the reporters and TV cameras were at Palacios de los Jugos, chasing Mitt Romney having Cuban coffee, only a few miles away Fernand was at work on the Hispanic vote for Obama. Important? You tell me.

On EOM's list of most influential in Miami, Fernand Amandi is at the top. (Photo taken with David Axelrod, election night in Chicago.)

Winner: New York Times FiveThirtyEight Blog and Nate Silver ... by gimleteye

In the weeks leading up to the national election, we paid very close attention to the statistical analyses and polling data assessments updated daily by Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight blog. Silver became a star with his predictions for the 2008 election cycle; he hit every mark.

FiveThirtyEight was extraordinarily accurate in tracking the probabilities leading to the Obama victory. When the Miami Herald put a top of the fold, front page story of a late Mason Dixon poll showing Romney with a 6 point advantage, I quickly turned to FiveThirtyEight where that poll was an extraordinary anomaly.

It was another dismal moment for the Herald, that otherwise endorsed Obama. Nate Silver sets a very high bar for data analysis in American politics.

Nate Silver/538 on how he got it so right. By Geniusofdespair

He had the election map right! If you have not seen his blog this is the link...

Here is the map he had posted BEFORE the election.

Great loss for the nation, from California ... by gimleteye

A tidal wave of corporate farming money swamped Proposition 37, that would have required the labeling of food with GMO components (genetically modified organisms). What a shame. Prop 37 would have mandated labels on “raw or processed food offered for sale to consumers if the food is made from plants or animals with genetic material changed in specified ways.” It would also prohibit any food with genetically modified (GM) ingredients from being labeled as “natural." The politics of food will wait for another battle to protect consumers. Thank DuPont, PepsiCo, and Monsanto for the havoc to our food supply.

Great embarrassment for the nation, from Florida ... by gimleteye

It's Wednesday morning, and Florida electoral votes still have not declared. Truth be told: voter suppression tactics by Gov. Rick Scott and the Republican legislature accounted for a disgraceful election process in Florida. Why? To minimize the opportunities for President Obama and Democratic candidates. Early voting should have been expanded, not sharply curtailed as Gov. Scott ordered. In my precinct, only one scanner was working with more than a dozen voters filling out ballots all over the room. In hundreds of precincts in Florida's most populous counties, it took voters many hours to reach their ballots. This shouldn't happen in America. Yesterday, we looked like a third world country. These failures were by design, and Gov. Scott will be held accountable by voters.

Great wins for the nation, from Florida ... by gimleteye

It doesn't get better than this: Joe Garcia finally defeated GOP Congressman David Rivera. Amazing that Rivera garnered any votes at all. The low set by Rivera was only matched by Broward congressman Allen West, apparently defeated by newcomer Democrat Patrick Murphy. Where Republican donors abandoned Rivera in droves, the opposite occurred with West -- his inflammatory rhetoric and conspiracy theories made him the darling of Tea Party acolytes and corporate sponsors-- who raised $17 million compared to Murphy's $3.7 million.

Tea Party, "pro-life" ballot measures promoted by radical GOP extremists including the Florida Chamber of Commerce, also lost at the polls. 

Allen West: Ding Dong The Warlock is gone. By Geniusofdespair

It is official Patrick Murphy has been declared the winner over Allen West, NBC called it according to Huffington Post:

"Among his more memorable comments, West called fellow Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) "vile" and "not a lady," said that more than 80 House Democrats are Communist Party members, compared being gay to liking chocolate chip ice cream, and said two times that Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels would "truly be proud" of the current Democratic Party.

Wasserman Schultz later told HuffPost that voters all over the country, including those in West's district, sent a strong message on Tuesday that they want people to work together in Washington. "In races across the country, the West-Murphy race included, the voters rejected extremism," Wasserman Schultz said."

What did West raise? A gazillion dollars? Money doesn't always work, especially from out of State. Now this one makes me VERY happy. Michelle Bachmann's win doesn't feel quite as bad with this West loss. West lost by .78% which avoids the automatic recount at .5%. Bye bye Allen!

For the GOP, opportunity knocks through a different door ... by gimleteye

Give President Obama’s team their due: a game plan that was organized, focused, well executed, and aimed to win. There were a dozen reasons he should have lost, but only one that counts: the Republican Party that animated the Romney campaign.

Give Mitt Romney’s team its due: organized, focused, well executed with an aim to win. There are a dozen reasons he should have won, and one reason he lost: the Republican Party. Going forward, there is one political party with a grand opportunity: that would be the Republican Party.

Ohio had not yet been declared by Fox News, before its commentators began sputtering. All the talking points of the GOP message machine – buttressed by billions of dollars of dark money from corporate America and its totemic leaders, the Koch Brothers, and the media empire of Rupert Murdoch – had failed with a majority of American voters.

The Fox News anchors struggled for a story line, without their back room helpers. And there, on the set, was Karl Rove, GOP architect, clinging to hope and expressing it clearly -- that if Fox News held out and stonewalled declaring Ohio that something would materialize to arrest Ohio’s slide to President Obama. He didn’t say so, but it was there in his body language: a rich man who had cost the nation trillions through the Bush term failures and had now cost his patrons, billions. It was all there on live TV.

The pitchfork politics of the Republican Party hit the ceiling with the American electorate last night. There were no more voters yesterday and will be no more voters in the next presidential cycle to bring to the fold. Charles Krauthammer, on Fox, instantly offered hope that the Republican Party would fall to the new generation of leaders, like Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio. A pipe dream, but a revealing one.

The younger generation has been propelled by the same extremists – including Jeb Bush and Newt Gingrich – that only generate support among a dwindling demographic drawn to the polls by fear and loathing.

In 1964 Barry Goldwater won the Republican nomination to be president, articulating the the principle that has animated the GOP for nearly fifty years: “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.” Then, Goldwater's message appealed mainly to John Birchers. Today the John Birchers, reformatted as the Tea Party and supported by special interest billions, control the Republican Party. Senate losses in Indiana and Missouri—Mourdock and Aiken – despite the infusion of untold millions by the radical right, tell the story. (click, 'read more')

Thank you, Eye On Miami readers ... by gimleteye

There is a lot to discuss about this morning, but first: thank you, EOM readers. We had a spectacular jump in our audience numbers at the end of the campaign season. It is gratifying to see our exercise in civic journalism and opinion -- a true not-for-profit -- at work.

Fox News Crazy People Let Karl, Rove ... unreal!

11:54 PM. Fox News, a news network? Come on. Karl Rove, who directed billions of shady money for Republican candidates is ALONE and there he is, commandeering the stage at Fox News, objecting to the networks calling the Obama victory in Ohio based on numbers crunching. I mean, look: does Karl Rove have the keys to the front door at Fox? Does he have a direct line into the Secretary State of Ohio, and the computer codes used in electronic balloting. Can't believe what I'm watching! The Fox News anchors have ceded the platform to Blossom Turd (W.'s nickname for Rove.) There is a total disconnect here: Roger Ailes, do you know how embarrassing this moment is for Fox News???? At least it is clear who runs Fox.

2012 Election Results - Miami Dade County Early Voting and Absentee Ballots. By Geniusofdespair

MIAMI DADE COUNTY RESULTS FOR EARLY VOTING AND ABSENTEE BALLOTS WILL BE POSTED ABOUT 7:30 PM AS SOON AS THEY COME OUT

Early Voting Combined with Absentee Ballots Results, if the numbers aren't close on LOCAL races you can figure out who is going to win  based on these numbers without looking at the final numbers.  BTW Allen West is losing 49.59% (8.52pm)

You can tell a lot with the early numbers. Remember in the National Races and the State Charter Amendments that these are ONLY Miami Dade county numbers. You must add in the rest of the State.
 
President of the US:
Mitt Romney ab 96,910 early 65, 652 - 162,574
Barack Obama ab 97,292 early 168,109 - 265,458
 
US Senator:
Connie Mack ab 85,368 early 59,234 - 144,615
Bill Nelson ab 98,183 early 163,094 - 261,330

Representative in Congress
District 23: (This District includes Broward)
Debbie Wasserman Shultz ab 8,694 early 11,480 -  20,182
Karen Harrington ab 6,007 early 4,942 - 10,951

District 26:  (This District includes Monroe)
Joe Garcia ab  21,018, early 34,000 - 55,020  (53.57% Statewide)
David Rivera ab 24,820, early 19404 - 44,227  
I Predict Joe Garcia is a winner

State Senator:

District 35
Senator Gwen Margolis ab 21,745 early 31,805 - 53,572
John Courier ab16,479 early 13,864 - 30,347
I Predict Gwen Margolis winner

District 39 (Includes Monroe)
Scott Hopes ab 3,113, early 3,424 - 6,538
Dwight Bullard ab 12,120, early 29,350 - 41,477
I Predict Dwight Bullard the winner

State Representative, District 112: 
Jose Javier Rodriguez ab 5,395 early 8,939 - 14,835
Alex Diaz de la Portilla ab 7,401 early 5,191 - 12,593
(this one is a surprise to me. 9:30 Javier is pulling ahead 54%)

State Representative, District  114: (brain dead district)
Erik Fresen ab 8,408 early 6,865 - 15,273
Ross Hancock ab 5,846 early 8,928 - 14,774
(too close to call)

State Representative, District 115:
Michael Bileca ab 8,144 early 6,733 - 14,867
Jeffrey Doc Solomon ab 6,047 early 8,448 - 14,501
(too close to call)

Miami Dade County Commissioners:

District 3:
Audrey Edmonson ab 5,603 early 11,148 - 16,756
Keon Hardemon ab 2,863 early 6,779 - 9,645
I predict Audrey will win

District 5:
Bruno Barreiro ab 6,358 early 5,115 - 11,473
Luis Garcia ab 4,961 early 6,149 - 11,113
(Too close to call)

District 11:
Juan C. Zapata ab 6,547 early 7,199 - 13,746
Manny Machado ab 5,678 early 5,773 - 11,452

County Judges:  
County Judge, Group 24:
Greer Elaine Wallace 55,227 ab 80,861 early
Andrea Wolfson  70,592 ab  76,528 early

State Amendments: (need 60% Statewide this is just Miami Dade)
We endorsed NO on all
1 ab yes 75,986, no 77,642  both: no 58.60%
2 ab yes 122,126, no 42,109 both: yes 62.35% Disabled Veterans
3 ab yes 84,122, no 80,030 both: no 57.24%
4 ab yes 88,382, no 69,322 both: no 53.17%
5 ab yes 65,921, no 91,543 both: no 64.98%
6 ab yes 89,372, no 77,773 both no 56.37%
8 ab yes 89,264, no 71,522 both no 53.60%
9 ab yes 111,306, no 52,249 both yes 57.86%
10 ab yes 88,488, no 71,480 both no 54.46%
11 ab yes 131,269, no 40,410 both yes 63.68% Homestead Exemptions Seniorsc
12 ab yes 73,311, no 84,232 both yes 59.95%
(the above should all have been a big fat NO, they need 60% to pass  2, 11)

School Bond:
For bond 100,028 against ab 66,015 both for: 250,420 against: 117,863

County Charter Questions:
Term Limits  ab yes 135,750, no 29,296: both yes 280,424 no 79,196
Technical Amendment ab yes 103,812, no 36,998: both yes 232,120 no 84,234
2/3 vote for UDB line Movement ab yes 100,580, no 48,525: both yes 232,303 no 102,016
Incorporation (Creation of New Municipalities) ab yes 81,474, no 67,206 both yes 170,166 no 159,938
Enforcement of Citizens Bill of Rights ab yes 69,723 no 79,143: both yes 168,729 no 162,335
Filling Mayoral Vacancies  ab yes 91,628, no 60,826: both yes 210,876 no 126,078
Mayor Conflict in Procurement ab yes 85,916, no 64,060: both yes 200,092 no 132,995
Tennis Center ab yes 122,862, no 42,697: both yes 272,414, no 93,552
Straw vote on animal services (add to millage) ab yes 98,151, no 71,177: both yes 239,000 no 137,458
Straw vote prohibiting use of taxpayers' dollars for companies that do business with countries on the terrorism list ab yes 104,150, no 57,939: both yes 229,239 no 128,276

Coral Gables Truck Ordiance yes 2,847, no 2,812: both yes 6,127 no 5,576
  
Palmetto Bay Vice Mayor:
 Karen Cunningham ab 714 both 1,418
John Dubois ab 809 both 1,467
Brian Pariser ab 747 both 1,585

I am NOT checking the numbers, you guys do it. It is 8:30pm and they are still voting in Homestead.

These were our endorsements:

Election Day Voting In Miami Dade County: Your comments on precinct activities... by gimleteye

Please comment on the precinct / voting experience you had today.

We will post results for Miami-Dade County early voting and absentee ballots about 7:30pm - come back.

Photos from Precincts 

11:30am - Someone fainted at Centennial Middle School while waiting on line. Was just told that a man waiting in line here at 8 am,  finally left at 12.  He waited for 4 hours to vote.

10:15 am: Voting at Centennial Middle School in Cutler Bay. People in line at 6:30a.m. got done at 10.

Bank United Center at University of Miami. Students wait for polls to open before dawn.

North Miami, Keystone Point Tot Lot: About 2 1/2 hour wait at 11 am

Keystone Point North Miami, view around the corner.

Coral Gables Youth Center at 9a.m.

Washington Community Center, North Miami Beach at 11:30 am - Voters shield eyes from sun.

Washington Park Community Center - North Miami Beach 11:30am

Coral Gables Fire Station, 2 hours at 11:55pm

Simpson Park, Brickell, around noon.

Gina Mondi waited 3 hours in the hot sun with her 3 children ages 3, 10 and 10 months to vote at the Washington Park community center precinct. There is no public school today so mothers have had to bring their children.

Voting might be leveling off. This is polling place 603 in Coral Gables at 1pm, 1,609 are in this precinct.

Aventura City Hall at 3pm.

Palmetto Bay around 4pm.

Line growing at Centennial Middle School in Cutler Bay. Here it is at 6:30pm., wrapping around back of building.

Voting November 6th in Miami Dade County Florida.

Eye On Miami's 2012 Election Endorsements

Dear Readers, the bloggers at EOM mostly agree on our endorsements. We have strong views about a number of candidates and issues. For example, neither blogger here believes in pandering to fear of terrorism manifest through local county code or in candidates seeking support of the Christian Family Coalition in Miami-Dade who are haters. Incumbents -- especially the unreformable majority of the county commission-- need to be held accountable by voters. Finally, it is a sad assessment of Florida politics that we can only endorse so few in State Government races. 

President:
 
Barack Obama
Senator:
Bill Nelson
Representative in Congress:
District 23 Debbie Wasserman Schultz
District 26 Joe Garcia
State Senator:
District 35 Gwen Margolis (G.O.D. Only*)
District 39 Dwight Bullard (G.O.D. Only)
State Representatives:
District 112 Jose Javier Rodriguez
District 114 Ross Hancock
District 115 Jeffrey Doc Solomon
Justices of the Supreme Court:
Justice R. Fred Lewis YES
Barbara J. Pariente YES
Justice Peggy A. Quince YES
All the other State Judges: NO
County Commissioners:
District 5 Luis Garcia
District 11 Juan Zapata
Constitutional Amendments:
NO on all 12 of them
School Board Bond:
NO
Home Rule Charter "County Questions":
Term Limits YES
Technical Changes YES
Urban Development Boundary YES
Creation of New Municipalities NONE
Enforcement of Citizens Bill of Rights: Gimleteye, Yes ... G.O.D., No
Extend Time to Fill Vacancies of Mayor and Commission NO
Mayor Conflict in County Procurement NO
Tennis Center NO
Non-Binding on Animal Services NO
Non -Binding on Contracting with Companies Terrorism NO (Would you support, to the extent permitted by law, prohibiting further the use of taxpayers’ dollars to procure services or capital improvement projects from companies actively doing business in countries that are on the U.S. Department of State’s list of state sponsors of terrorism?)

Let's all vote today. By Geniusofdespair

Come back about 7:30pm to see the absentee ballot and early voting results. In the meantime...




Link to video.

Link to our Election Endorsements.

Something we can all agree on ... by gimleteye

A bold suggestion: it is time to take back the "news" from the false prophets.

Broadcasting standards need to be applied to what passes for partisan news networks and commentators. Fox News started it, as an extension of Rupert Murdoch's brilliant idea of an empire built on salacious content. And Fox News now has company.

The current status quo is based on a simple, immensely profitable idea: "news anchors" or media personalities like Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck take their talking points from whatever political interests that test as most profitable. That these "news figures" coordinate and often parrot each other's messages is simply to fortify through repetition the faithfulness and loyalty of target audiences.

Of course, there are true believers on all partisan sides of the media sundial; but the public needs to be informed in a fair and balanced way. Fox News thumbs its nose at the notion.

To complain that consumers are being manipulated is hardly forward thinking: this is the beating heart of the advertising industry.

But whether you are glued to Rupert Murdoch/ Roger Ailes or some other version of bias, you have to acknowledge the damage to democracy.

Yes: it is all being done under the banner of freedom of speech. But there need to be rules of engagement, just like there are in any contact sport, and penalties for violators.

We could go on, as we have, staggering like drunks or addicts from one election cycle to the next. But The end result is to prime our legislatures and governments for partisan gridlock and ceaseless antagonism. Where does it stop if reasonable leaders are not permitted to compromise, because the fanatics hold the advertisers' love? Civil war?

The influence of the news hucksters is such that they are dictating the terms of political engagement; not to make life better for people, but to make more money. Period.

I don't know where the leadership in Congress will arise, to engage this subject. Partisan media has turned the entire question of the media and political expression, radioactive. But look what's happened: it is proliferating cancer on our civic life. Are we too ignorant to stop what is polluting our politics?

Romney's Global Warming/Climate Change Joke. By Geniusofdespair

Scoffing at sea level rise isn't so funny anymore.

Eye On Miami will be reporting ELECTION RESULTS. By Geniusofdespair

Tomorrow night Miami Dade County absentee ballot and early voting results will be released by 7:30. We will report these results as they come in. Come back tomorrow after 7:30 to see these results. In some cases you can deduce the winners based on these numbers.

In other news today, the pretty reliable 538 blog is predicting a win for Obama. They say Obama's chance of winning is at 86.3%. They are predicting Obama has 307 Electoral votes.

Here is their prediction for Florida:

Will this election be stolen? ... by gimleteye

Florida voters who experienced the 2000 presidential election have post traumatic stress syndrome. It shaped our lives and fear of the consequences of every presidential election, since.

In 2000, the memories of a botched recount in Palm Beach, or GOP operatives helicoptered into downtown Miami County Hall to stop the recount, the role of then Governor Jeb Bush and teams of lawyers protecting his brother's interests, are searing. The cascade of events in Miami: from the plan to capture the Homestead Air Force Base by political insiders (Fact: Bush loyalists Sergio Pino, Rodney Barreto, and Ramon Rasco's HABDI fiasco was supplanted by the formation of US Century Bank; now the largest recipient of TARP money in Florida, the largest undercapitalized bank in the United States, and about to walk away with $50 million in taxpayer dollars), to the commandeering of county government and the election of Alex Penelas as mayor, to the pressuring of the Clinton administration and avoidance by Gore, to the influence peddling by key lobbyists who controlled contracts at the airport, to the abandonment of the ship of state by Penelas and his buddy Herman Echevarria at the crucial moment of the recount, to the election thrown to the US Supreme Court, the subsequent wars waged on lies costing trillions, the triggering and collapse of the nation's housing markets: this cascade of history triggers panic now at the fact of Republican Gov. Rick Scott shortening voting hours -- to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters -- at the fact of a bomb scare in Orlando that shut down an important voting station over the weekend, and yesterday's near riot at the headquarters of the elections department in Miami-Dade because people promised their vote were denied.

Add to this, news percolating of last minute GOP moves to suppress the vote in Ohio and irregularities at key precincts: this presidential election suddenly in the final days gathers the force of doubt and suspicion that if voting rights are at stake on Tuesday, what other fundamental rights could we lose on Wednesday?

VOTING IN DORAL. By Geniusofdespair

Because of crowds chanting, voting was REOPENED at around 3:10pm. They had previously locked the doors at 2pm at elections in Doral. The Joe Garcia campaign summed it up perfectly:

Miami-Dade Elections Department Says Voters Can Vote After Saying Voters Can’t Vote After Saying Voters Can Vote – All Within Six Hours On A Sunday

ALERT THERE IS MORE TIME TO VOTE: TODAY and MONDAY! By Geniusofdespair

 UPDATE: 3:10 Doors unlocked people allowed to vote again. Maybe the chanting did it.

UPDATE: 2:46pm DORAL CLOSED DOWN OVERWHELMED BY VOTERS: PEOPLE ARE DEMANDING TO VOTE, "YELLING LET US VOTE!" read it in the Miami Herald (and watch the vido)...

“We had the best of intentions to provide this service today,” she said (Christina White of Elections). “We just can’t accommodate it to the degree that we would like to.”

Shortly after, however, the department locked its doors and shut down the operation without explanation. The people in line did not get to vote. “Let us vote!” they shouted.

This was written this morning:

VERY IMPORTANT:

In Miami-Dade, voters can request an absentee ballot in person, and turn it in, between 1 p.m. and 5 p.m. Sunday, between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. Monday, and between 8 a.m. and 7 p.m. Tuesday at the elections headquarters at 2700 NW 87th Ave., Doral.

YOU CAN VOTE TODAY!

The Election: some final thoughts. By Geniusofdespair

The early voting numbers yesterday were the highest for the week at 39,046. During early voting 235,733 people voted overall. Absentee ballots are at 188,593. That means 424,326 people have voted out of about 1,281,368 registered voters: a third of Miami Dade's registered voters have voted. In 2008 Miami Dade County had a 70.05% voter turnout or 872,260 ballots cast out of 1,245,138 registered voters.  If we again have a 70% turnout that would mean about 896,957 will vote in this election. So, almost half the people, who will probably vote in Miami Dade County, have already voted. Also remember, there will be more absentee ballots coming in on Monday (27,009 came in Friday so I would expect to see a number close to that on Monday).  Note: Always check my math!

We did not make endorsements on all State and County races but I did have opinions on a few (The ones in bold we did endorse together).

On the local front tomorrow, I would like to see:

Audrey Edmonson win in District 3 for County Commissioner.
Luis Garcia win in District 5 for County Commissioner.
Juan Zapata win in District 11 for County Commissioner.
Gwen Margolis win as State Senator in District 35 (I endorsed only. Gimleteye did not.)
Dwight Bullard win as State Senator in District 39. (I endorsed only. Gimleteye did not.)
Jose Javier Rodriguez win as State Representative in District 112.
Ross Hancock win as State Representative in District 114.
Jeffrey Solomon win as State Representative in District 115.

In municipal races I only have one opinion, and it is strong:
I want to see John Dubois lose for Vice Mayor of Palmetto Bay.

SEE OUR ENDORSEMENTS 

If you are an early voter, Gov. Rick Scott made you spend hours waiting in line ... by gimleteye

The Miami Herald reported on the good times had by all in early voting lines stretching as much as six hours in recent days. This is a case of voter suppression, pure and simple, and should give voters reason  enough to send Gov. Rick Scott packing, when his time comes in two years. 

FiveThirtyEight blog by NY Times Nate Silver

Voters on Saturday stretching around Miami City Hall.