On politics, Miami Herald has some explaining to do ... by gimleteye

Miami Herald reporters are a sharp bunch. Maybe not. Every now and again -- on very important stories -- the Herald shows itself to readers as a paper puppet to larger powers and forces.

Take the insider piggy-bank, US Century Bank for example, where the other day a Herald news report was cribbed from South Florida Business Daily that has had the guts to take on the biggest source of public corruption in Miami-Dade County. Who is protecting US Century Bank, because the bank should have been closed down by the feds long, long ago?

We will never know from the Herald, because Herald executives, past and perhaps present, have strong bonds to the interests and lobbyists who represent and to shareholders of the most corrupt little bank in Florida. (Brian Bandell deserves recognition for excellent reporting on the US Century Bank disaster that the Miami Herald won't. But to get the full scope of that disaster, readers would do better to consult our archives.)

Of the Herald's sins of commission and omission, one startling example was putting on the front page before the recent election a Mason-Dixon poll. It is well known that Mason Dixon is favored by GOP candidates and funders.

The Marc Caputo report of the poll showed Romney up by six points. It certainly raised some eyebrows, given that the Herald had written a strong endorsement of President Obama. Who was at the editorial gate house, allowing a partisan pollster to the head of the line?

In the Nov. 2nd story, Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said, "The debate was the tipping point." On the Herald political blog and in a story last week, Caputo and then the Times tried to dismiss the error: "(Brad Coker) said the shift was not caused by polling error, but because Obama moved the needle with his handling of Hurricane Sandy."

But the needle didn't move. On Nov. 2nd, Caputo wrote as fact: "Obama’s numbers nose-dived with Hispanics, independents and women. Obama was already on unsteady ground in Florida, where unemployment and home foreclosure rates are higher than the national average." Ouch! What moved was The Miami Herald.

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

No: we couldn't count in the first place thanks to the GOP.

Credit the New York Times FiveThirtyEight Blog by Nate Silver for doing the work of analyzing the pollsters: "... polls that were Republican-leaning relative to the consensus did especially poorlt." Like Mason-Dixon for example.

In its Nov. 2 report, The Miami Herald editors ought to have pointed out that the Mason-Dixon poll was a statistical outlier. Instead, Caputo's famous ending will stand: "“Romney’s painting the bigger picture, the broader long-term — as Bush used to call it, ‘the vision thing,’"Coker said. “Whereas Obama’s basically down here just preaching to the choir and trying to get them excited." Uh, not exactly.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/v-print/3080246/poll-mitt-romney-maintains-lead.html#storylink=cpy

Coral Gables Gets a Push Poll. By Geniusofdespair

My spouse says I am a hater...I guess I am. I add to my hate list: Push Polls. For those of you who don't know what one is, according to the Mystery Pollster:

"The important thing to remember is that a "push poll" is not a poll at all. It's a fraud, an attempt to disseminate information under the guise of a legitimate survey. The proof is in the intent of the person doing it."

Someone in the Coral Gables District 4 Commission Race just put out a push poll, apparently after Gonzalo Sanabria (who can blame them) and Brad Rosenblatt. Take a look at an in depth description of this Coral Gables push poll over at the Discourse Blog. Nasty stuff going on in Coral Gables. I thought rich people behaved better (LOL).

Exclusive: Pollster Dario Moreno on Anti-Amendment 4 Poll. By Geniusofdespair

Professional Pollster Dario Moreno saw me last night wearing a T Shirt supporting Amendment 4. He told me that he was called the day before by a poll against Amendment 4 and he told me about their unfair tactics.

Dario Moreno said the beginning of the poll was okay but the "push questions" that came later against Amendment 4 were unprofessional. There you have it from someone who CONDUCTS POLLS, a professional pollster. This campaign against Amendment 4 is run by the scum of the earth, unethical bottom feeders trying to twist the truth.

What is a "push poll" you might ask? According to the Mystery Pollster:

The important thing to remember is that a "push poll" is not a poll at all. It's a fraud, an attempt to disseminate information under the guise of a legitimate survey. The proof is in the intent of the person doing it.

To understand what I mean, imagine for a moment that you are an ethically challenged political operative ready to play the hardest of hardball. Perhaps you want to spread an untruth about an opponent or "rumor" so salacious or farfetched that you dare not spread it yourself (such as the classic lie about John McCain's supposed "illegitimate black child"). Or perhaps your opponent has taken a "moderate" position consistent with that of your boss, but likely to inflame the opponent's base (such as Republican voting to raise taxes or a Democrat supporting "Bush's wiretapping program").

You want to spread the rumor or exploit the issue without leaving fingerprints. So you hire a telemarketer to make phone calls that pretend to be a political poll. You "ask" only a question or two aimed at spreading the rumor (example: "would you be more or less likely to support John McCain if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate child who was black?").

The information presented in a true push poll is usually false or highly distorted, but not always. A call made for the purposes of disseminating information under the guise of survey is still a fraud - and thus still a "push poll" - even if the facts of the "questions" are technically true or defensible.

Who is paying for the anti-Amendment 4 poll? (hit read more)

These are some of the big donors (how much they gave to fight Amendment 4 is the first number, how much public bail-out money they got is the second number):
Lennar Homes FL $367,000 $251.1 million
Meritage Homes $34,000 $93 million
M.D.C. Holdings $39,000 $142.6 million
Standard Pacific of Tampa $132,000 $103 million
Pulte Homes $567,000 $800 million
Ryland Homes $135,000 $97.6 million
KB Homes $255,000 $191.7 million
K. Hovnanian Companies $96,000 $250 to $275 million
Beazer Homes $75,000 $101 million
M/I Homes $73,000 $31 million
Toll Brothers $43,000 $78.8 million
MDC Holdings $39,000 $142.6 million

Another $2.5 million since April came from a who’s who of lobbying groups who represent the over-builders/speculators: Broward Workshop ($260,000), Floridians for Smarter Growth ($488,000), Florida Chamber of Commerce ($240,000) and the Florida Association of Realtors ($1million), to name a few.