Miami Dade local issues poll, Part Three: Cuba ... by gimleteye

Some observations:

The final part of the Miami Dade local issues poll for Univision and the Miami Herald, by Bendixen & Amandi, was released yesterday. This section of the poll, conducted May 1 - 4, 2016, analyzed results on the political issue that defines Miami: relations with Cuba. In particular, the poll explored public attitudes toward the Obama rapprochement with Cuba.

There has been so much written about this issue, why go on except to note that most polled, including a full 80% of Cuban Americans who watched, were deeply impressed by Obama's speech in Havana. We opined at the time, this speech was the best of his presidency. You can watch it here:

Local Issues Poll WAVE 3

Miami Dade Local Issues Poll, Part 2 ... by gimleteye

Some Observations, Part 2

Correction: The Channel 23/ Univision/ Miami Herald poll by Bendixen & Amandi was conducted via live telephone operator with a mixture of both landline AND cell phones, so my observation yesterday about the population skewed by land line only was inaccurate.

Regarding today's poll, "Image and Job Ratings": Kathy Fernandez Rundle and Alberto Carvalho appears to be well regarded in the community, although 30 percent of respondents don't know Rundle is the Miami Dade state attorney and by nearly the same margin, that Carvalho is the Miami Dade school superintendent.

Carvalho is the most popular public official of those polled by a substantial margin, with a 73% excellent/good favorability rating, and uniquely among those polled -- through all ethnicities. This indicates that if he chose to run as county mayor, Carvalho could be a formidable candidate.

On the question, "What do you think is the most important issue facing Miami Dade county today?", the categories 'jobs and the economy' and 'gun violence' both polled at 19%. 'Traffic congestion' was not far behind, at 14%. And our bellwether at Eye On Miami, 'climate change and sea level rise', at 5%.

However, when questioned specifically on whether sea level rise is an important issue, an astounding 84% of respondents affirmed positively. 76% of Republicans compared to 90% of Democrats and 86% of Independents. On what to do about sea level rise and whether Miami Dade is doing enough, 19% don't know and 66%, that the county is not doing enough.

On the issue of whether the county is doing enough, there is still a wide gap -- nearly 25% -- between Republicans and Democrats who believe that the county is NOT doing enough. But the 52% of Republicans who believe the county is not doing enough should permanently lay to rest the perception that Republicans do not believe in climate change.

In other words, Miami Dade Republican candidates for office can no longer afford positions against science and against climate change. Prediction: within the next generation's lifespan, 'jobs and the economy' and 'climate change and sea level rise' will become the same issue.

Taking the poll results out of sequence, some comments by EOM on FPL. 70% of respondents have a favorable opinion of the monopolistic supplier of electricity in the region: Florida Power and Light. This attests to the non-stop public relations machinery deployed by the corporate giant, especially when unfavorable news appears in the mainstream media.

That said, 65% are following to some extent the problems (the poll calls it 'questions') at Turkey Point nuclear facility. A follow up question asked to only those following the issue, "how satisfied are you with FPL's response to possible chemical threats to drinking water supplies', 56% said they were not very or not at all satisfied with the FPL response. On this response, there was a 20% margin between Spanish language and English language respondents. Perhaps Eye On Miami ought to begin a Spanish language edition.

It is interesting to note how public perceptions differ on the issue of supporting museums/sports stadiums with public tax dollars. By nearly a wide margin (57%), respondents support a privatized Beckham-led soccer stadium in Overtown and oppose the $49 million public bailout -- by the Miami Dade County Commission -- of the Frost Museum of Science (51%). The gulf on public funding versus private, between Republican and Democrat voters and between Hispanic and Anglo, was 10%.

On the issue of gun violence among youth, the visceral reaction by all respondents that Miami Dade county elected officials are not doing enough to stem the tide was very high; but Hispanics polled at 71%, Anglos at 75% and African-Americans at 89%.

69% of respondents believe that Miami Dade county leaders are not doing enough to relieve traffic congestion plaguing the region, although there is a full 11% difference between Republicans and Democrats and a 15% difference between Republicans and Independents. By the same margin, Anglos are more troubled by traffic congestion than Hispanics. Interesting.

By a margin of 22%, respondents favor expansion of mass transit over roadway expansion. Amen, to that. 18-34 age voters and Anglos appear strongly to favor the mass transit preference.

Local Issues Poll WAVE 2 by Alan Farago

Miami Dade Local Issues, Mayoral Marijuana And Presidential Election Preferences ... by gimleteye

Some Observations

The Bendixen & Amandi poll on local Miami-Dade issues just arrived, published with the cooperation of local media including the Miami Herald and Univision; a preview of important issues facing voters in the August primary and November election.

Some take-aways: a significant percentage of the population reachable by land line telephone is living in la-la land.

For whatever reason, a large number polled in Miami-Dade are poorly informed on local politics. Perhaps they believe politics are too irritating, too unchangeable, or too depressing to pay attention. How else to explain that 44% of respondents do not recognize Raquel Regalado and 47% of Anglos?

The ethnic divisions in Miami-Dade County continue to be notable. By language of interview, 50% of Spanish language respondents had a favorable opinion of Regalado, but a full 52% of English language had not heard of her.

It would be interesting to poll, in the future, on the question of interest with political issues in Miami-Dade and ethnic affiliation.

The clueless and inattentive narrative is underlined by largely favorable views of Carlos Gimenez among both Hispanics and Anglos.

There is probably latent opportunity for Regalado here, with 43% of respondents having an unfavorable view of the job Gimenez is doing as mayor; a result pulled from the “throw all the bums out” category of voters whether they know anything or not. Regalado has not made strong enough inroads in informing voters on exactly where Gimenez has let down ordinary voters, like identifying Gimenez with Donald Trump.

For future mayoral candidates, there is a solid ten percent spread separating the divide between ethnic affinities of voters. That is a significant opportunity for a high recognition candidate like Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava who may run for mayor in the future.

That is also the spread that Regalado will have to quickly capture if she is to have any chance in the mayoral election in August. Her appeal to Cuban voters is statistically the same as Gimenez, so between now and August she ought to be concentrating in both Anglo and African American constituencies. Another way forward for Regalado would be to focus on female voters where fully 40% are undecided in the mayoral campaign.

A series of questions on medical marijuana made me light up. I suspect that support, nearly sixty one percent among respondents, is understated because it does not take into account how many young people exclusively use cell phones and not available otherwise for polling purposes.

On the presidential election, Donald Trump is in big trouble in Miami-Dade. 1/3rd of GOP voters are undecideds. In the March primary, Donald Trump had strong loyalty among primary Republican voters state-wide, but he failed to carry Miami-Dade. Of those polled, many are unsure if they would cast their vote for Trump. This speaks to a deep reservoir of unhappiness among grass roots Republican voters toward standard bearers. That said, Cuban voters were nearly twice as inclined to vote for Trump as Anglos, and African Americans — by nearly 80 percent — inclined to vote for Clinton. The results speak to the probability that Trump will concentrate in North Florida.

Tomorrow, the next part of the Bendixen & Amandi poll continues and will be available here.

Miami Dade Local Issues Poll WAVE 1

How Stupid are our Voters? Very Stupid. By Geniusofdespair

 According to the Bendixen & Amandi International Poll.....that the Miami Herald won't confirm or deny they paid for:

Question: Which of the following do you think is the most important issue facing Miami-Dade County  (and the people answering are voters, that is the scary part)?

Gimleteye, a very smart man, spends most of his time writing about climate change and sea level rise and as you can see the electorate does not give a shit about it, rating it at 2%. We are in a drought and our drinking water supply is seriously facing salt water intrusion. No worries, as long as you don't have traffic congestion. The people complain about traffic congestion but then only come up with 2% on development as a problem. Where do they think the traffic is coming from? They complain about Government Corruption but then elect the same stupid politicians over and over.

78% of Miami Dade County support the soccer stadium near the Orange Bowl. and a whopping 67% favor that ridiculous Wet Dream Mall. Like we need another mall. What are these people thinking? Don't they ever go swimming, or to a park? They want jobs for more money to spend at a mall?

Readers, if you don't like Carlos Gimenez or Raquel Regalado for Miami Dade County Mayor....Who do you think should run for Mayor of Miami Dade County? Give us some suggestions.....

By the way pollsters: do you have cell phone numbers or are you relying on home phones? I am told they do in fact have cell phone numbers too and a fleet of  UAV's hovering over your houses watching what you eat. Didn't you ever get one of those mysterious phone calls about your sugar intake or Cholesterol level? Yep, it was the pollster drones that ratted you out.

Interviews coming next week. By Geniusofdespair

I sent some really hard-hitting interview questions to some County Commissioners, Mayors and Candidates. The questions encompass everything you wanted to know about some of our community leaders....the really important stuff. I sent them to the people I believed were most likely to answer. I have 5 back so far and I must say they are fun to read. Look for the interview answers next week. I think it will be a column we all will enjoy...especially if we get their pin numbers.

What is your favorite color?

What is your favorite food?

What is your favorite ice cream flavor?

What is your least favorite road to travel on because of traffic?

What is the password of your bank account?

If you didn't answer the previous question, answer this: what is your mother's maiden name? Pets name, first car/job?

What do you like to do in your spare time?

Did you ever fall asleep at a meeting? Did you ever want to?

Do you get cranky? How do you get out of that mode?

Do you have a relative that drives you crazy?

What is your worst habit that you would like to change?

Are you a dog or cat person?

Who is your hero?

What would you say is your best attribute?

Is Florida on the right or wrong road?

Did you ever say the words "Global Warming"?

What are the last 4 digits of your social security number?

Where would you like to retire?

Brag about one thing in your community (that you didn't marry or give birth to).

What did I miss that I should have asked you?

The Poll for the Next Mayor of Miami Dade County Pretty Close. By Geniusofdespair

Margin of error 4%

 From the Miami Herald:

The poll shows Regalado with 34 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to 26 percent for Gimenez and 18 percent for Suarez. But Gimenez dominates in the other ethnic categories, taking 30 percent of the black vote (Regalado gets 10 percent and Suarez 12 percent) and 43 percent of the “white anglo” vote (compared to 8 percent for Regalado and 10 percent for Suarez.)

Regalado, a Spanish-language radio host, sees the numbers reflecting the core of her strategy: run up the score among Hispanic voters, then chip away at Gimenez’s decent showing with black voters and his popularity with anglo voters.

White vote?  Uninformed.

In the ethnic breakdown, the black vote is the most up for grabs, with 48 percent undecided. That voting bloc also a top priority for Gimenez’s political team. He’s taken high-profile roles in promoting a jobs program targeting black neighborhoods and announcing the relaunch of the Liberty Square housing complex in the heart of one of Miami’s most crime-ridden black neighborhoods.

The poll was conducted between Jan. 26 and Jan. 29. The ethnic mix was 58 percent Hispanic, and 20 percent each for white-anglo and black respondents.

When the poll asked Gimenez supporters why they liked him, 54 percent cited a good job done as mayor. Supporters of Regalado cited her work on the school board, and the desire for “fresh ideas.”

“The poll is consistent with the concerns that I’ve heard from Miami-Dade County residents and the desire for a change in leadership,” Regalado said.