Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Miami Dade Local Issues, Mayoral Marijuana And Presidential Election Preferences ... by gimleteye

Some Observations

The Bendixen & Amandi poll on local Miami-Dade issues just arrived, published with the cooperation of local media including the Miami Herald and Univision; a preview of important issues facing voters in the August primary and November election.

Some take-aways: a significant percentage of the population reachable by land line telephone is living in la-la land.

For whatever reason, a large number polled in Miami-Dade are poorly informed on local politics. Perhaps they believe politics are too irritating, too unchangeable, or too depressing to pay attention. How else to explain that 44% of respondents do not recognize Raquel Regalado and 47% of Anglos?

The ethnic divisions in Miami-Dade County continue to be notable. By language of interview, 50% of Spanish language respondents had a favorable opinion of Regalado, but a full 52% of English language had not heard of her.

It would be interesting to poll, in the future, on the question of interest with political issues in Miami-Dade and ethnic affiliation.

The clueless and inattentive narrative is underlined by largely favorable views of Carlos Gimenez among both Hispanics and Anglos.

There is probably latent opportunity for Regalado here, with 43% of respondents having an unfavorable view of the job Gimenez is doing as mayor; a result pulled from the “throw all the bums out” category of voters whether they know anything or not. Regalado has not made strong enough inroads in informing voters on exactly where Gimenez has let down ordinary voters, like identifying Gimenez with Donald Trump.

For future mayoral candidates, there is a solid ten percent spread separating the divide between ethnic affinities of voters. That is a significant opportunity for a high recognition candidate like Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava who may run for mayor in the future.

That is also the spread that Regalado will have to quickly capture if she is to have any chance in the mayoral election in August. Her appeal to Cuban voters is statistically the same as Gimenez, so between now and August she ought to be concentrating in both Anglo and African American constituencies. Another way forward for Regalado would be to focus on female voters where fully 40% are undecided in the mayoral campaign.

A series of questions on medical marijuana made me light up. I suspect that support, nearly sixty one percent among respondents, is understated because it does not take into account how many young people exclusively use cell phones and not available otherwise for polling purposes.

On the presidential election, Donald Trump is in big trouble in Miami-Dade. 1/3rd of GOP voters are undecideds. In the March primary, Donald Trump had strong loyalty among primary Republican voters state-wide, but he failed to carry Miami-Dade. Of those polled, many are unsure if they would cast their vote for Trump. This speaks to a deep reservoir of unhappiness among grass roots Republican voters toward standard bearers. That said, Cuban voters were nearly twice as inclined to vote for Trump as Anglos, and African Americans — by nearly 80 percent — inclined to vote for Clinton. The results speak to the probability that Trump will concentrate in North Florida.

Tomorrow, the next part of the Bendixen & Amandi poll continues and will be available here.


Anonymous said...

As the incumbent, Gimenez has topped out. It gives Raquel a great opportunity. Shortly many groups will be announcing their support for Raquel.

Anonymous said...

Local media? There is no local media. Al Crespo has exposed Rundle as making her own faked court orders and where is the Herald?

They choose to not report the scam afraid that they won't be invited to the next Miami Foundation shindig. Local media, don't make me laugh.

Anonymous said...

You seem to be surprised we have a clueless electorate, just look at what's happening in the GOP. We elected Rick Scott not once but twice and if folks don't get their heads out of the sand we'll elect Donald Trump for POTUS.

Anonymous said...

Pointing out land lines is focusing in on the fact that super voters are older residents. I answer my phone just waiting for those damn surveys. I take them with gusto. So 400 of us old folks over 50 years of age make the pattern for 2.6 million. What a joke.

Anonymous said...

If they polled the contributors to Gimenez, his numbers would suck worse. We are tired of getting harassed for money.

Anonymous said...

El Mayor is probably scratching his balding head and wondering what is happening. His small circle of friends are telling him "everything is fine, just keep raising money and we will win." Millions of dollars raised and the margin is shrinking. How can that be? When it's all over, maybe a real friend should explain it to him.

Anonymous said...

To the anon above: Carlos II has no real friends.

Anonymous said...

All of those donors from out of the county and the state - if their primary residence isn't Miami-Dade, my vote, my neighbors, and my fellow county employees' votes count more than their dollars.