Sunday, November 04, 2012

The Election: some final thoughts. By Geniusofdespair

The early voting numbers yesterday were the highest for the week at 39,046. During early voting 235,733 people voted overall. Absentee ballots are at 188,593. That means 424,326 people have voted out of about 1,281,368 registered voters: a third of Miami Dade's registered voters have voted. In 2008 Miami Dade County had a 70.05% voter turnout or 872,260 ballots cast out of 1,245,138 registered voters.  If we again have a 70% turnout that would mean about 896,957 will vote in this election. So, almost half the people, who will probably vote in Miami Dade County, have already voted. Also remember, there will be more absentee ballots coming in on Monday (27,009 came in Friday so I would expect to see a number close to that on Monday).  Note: Always check my math!

We did not make endorsements on all State and County races but I did have opinions on a few (The ones in bold we did endorse together).

On the local front tomorrow, I would like to see:

Audrey Edmonson win in District 3 for County Commissioner.
Luis Garcia win in District 5 for County Commissioner.
Juan Zapata win in District 11 for County Commissioner.
Gwen Margolis win as State Senator in District 35 (I endorsed only. Gimleteye did not.)
Dwight Bullard win as State Senator in District 39. (I endorsed only. Gimleteye did not.)
Jose Javier Rodriguez win as State Representative in District 112.
Ross Hancock win as State Representative in District 114.
Jeffrey Solomon win as State Representative in District 115.

In municipal races I only have one opinion, and it is strong:
I want to see John Dubois lose for Vice Mayor of Palmetto Bay.



Anonymous said...

Hmmmmm. I think the translation of the bumper sticker means get rid of Obama

Anonymous said...

I like all your local pic's.

Dist. 5 will probably be close. Zapata is going to really have his hands full but I think he'll be okay. As to Edmunson, I'd rather have a viable candidate run against her which was not this particular election. No one in the primary's could fill her commission seat, from what I saw, and her current opponent looks like a very, very bad apple, no matter whether you like her or not. It reminds me of the Moss/Pena thing. She was also a very, very bad apple.

Anonymous said...

Congratulations are in order for North Dade Regional Library and its surrounding communities who were the county's top early voter producer (16,625). Other top performers were 2) West Dade Reg. Library (15,266); 3)West Kendall Reg. Library(14,685); 4)Coral Gables (13,781); and 5) Model City (13,754)Library. Great job! Now these communities turn to getting the vote out on election day.

Anonymous said...

As we turn our focus to election day, it is becoming clear that the election day experience will vary for voters depending on four factors. Namely, precinct size, expected turnout rate, number of voters who already voted in early voting and absentee voting thus residual exppected turnout, and election infrastructure. Precinct size in Miami-Dade varies from 1 person to 8,168 persons in one precinct. There are 73 precincts with between 3,000-8,168 voters in them, plus there are a host of precincts with between 2,000-2,999voters. While the countywide mean turnout rate in the last presidental election was 70%, there were precincts that had very high turnout rates of 80%, and some even 90+%. Others had turn out rates below the mean. Elections Department decisions about voting infrastructure based on precinct size and residual expected turnout will have a direct impact on the voter experience. We know from the early voting experience, that only the top performers produced 2,000 votes per day near the end. A lot of precincts will have residual expected turnout rates of 2,000 voters, but will they have the voting infrastructue of North Dade Regional Library? For those precincts that have residual expected turnout rates of 4,000 voters, will they have double the infrastructure of North Dade Regional? For 6,000 triple the infrastructure? Elections should have a formula for allocating resources.

Given these election day dynamics, everyone, who can should get to the polls first thing in the morning on election day. In some places wait time will be long, and in many precincts, voters will be in line until the next morning.

Anonymous said...

I agree with all of your endorsements except the chiropractor (Solomon).

Anonymous said...

You guys did a great job covering early voting. The pictures were wonderful. And the hook-up to the wait time screen put us on the frontline. We could check anytime to see what was going on. I also liked the music in the movies of the lines.