Monday, June 20, 2011

Bad news bears and a double-dip recession: whose "narrative" do you believe? by gimleteye

Last week, economist Robert Shiller said there was a "substantial" probability the US will enter into recession again. Again? Wonder what the 17.3 percent of unemployed in Hialeah think about the narrative of a "double dip" recession. When, the question begs asking, was there a recovery? Americans on fixed income or who have squirreled savings into the stock market might also have a different narrative about the decade in which the best investment category was precious metals. But back to Hialeah. What, I wonder, is the true unemployment rate if the stated rate is 17.3 percent? Surely, adding the underground economy and long-term unemployed who have given up, it is considerably more: at least 25 percent. What does a double dip recession mean? For one, it is a better way to tell the news than a long-term decline through which our politics have been commandeered by charlatans. If a recession is "called", don't count on the limited benefits of federal stimulus. That has been politicked out. A decade from now, looking in the rear view mirror, will we be wondering: what in the world were we thinking?


Anonymous said...

"Politicked out"--pure genius Alan!

Love from your friend in Palm Beach

Anonymous said...

Great post. The real unemployment rate you're referring to is the U-6 unemployment rate which includes the long-term unemployed who have given up trying to find work and the under-employed. It is hovering around 25%; with no relief in sight.

Anonymous said...

Government intervention and largess got us into this mess and if we continue on that same path will only serve to dig our hole even deeper.

Bushama 2012!!!!

Anonymous said...

Sure. We should have throttled up spending on infrastructure but didn't. Only 1/3 of the dreaded stimulus was new spending and the Feds still haven't spent it all.

So how was $300 billion going to dig us out of a recession in a $14trillion economy?

Other than the bank bailouts which were a travesty mostly because the Bush administration dumped money with no strings, and the auto industry bailout which worked better than expected (except that it spawned the Chrystler-Fiat mutant) the economic recovery has been largely happening on its own. And since the financial underpinnings haven't changed much, there's really nothing keeping a second dip from happening.

Anonymous said...

The Wall Street bailouts were the product of our Democratic Congress. Most Republicans voted against. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) was the bill sponsor. Senators Obama and Biden both voted "Aye." Put the blame where it belongs.

P.S. I bet you will censor this comment just like you did my other one.

Suzan said...

Looking in the rear-view mirror?

Most of us will be lucky to make it through the next year.

And I've seen 40% when you are counting all the people who will never work at jobs that pay the bills again.

I have a nice chart at my site if you'd like to see where the depression/debt came from.

And some ideas on how to "cure" them.

Thanks for the reporting!


Anonymous said...

Perhaps we should take some queues from the countries that pulled out of the recession quickly and are now powering along with 4%+ growth: Canada, Germany, Denmark.

Mind you, neither characterized for low taxes or UBER American Health insurance models.