Sunday, December 21, 2014

There Won’t Be A Backlash To Ending The Cuba Embargo
538 Blog/ Nate Silver

Nearly 15 years ago, President Bill Clinton authorized federal agents to return Elian Gonzalez, who had been rescued at sea and sent to live with relatives in Florida, to his father in Cuba. The outcry from the Cuban community in Florida was loud and may have cost Al Gore the presidency in 2000. But we shouldn’t expect anything close to the same political ramifications after President Obama’s announcement that the United States will restore full diplomatic relations with Cuba and open an embassy in Havana.

Opinions on U.S.-Cuban relations have changed vastly in the past 15 years. The Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University has been polling Cuban-Americans living in South Florida since 1991. On the embargo question, Cuban-Americans had favored maintaining or strengthening it; today, a slight majority oppose it.

Only 48 percent favor the embargo. That compares with 87 percent when the question was first asked 23 years ago and 62 percent in 2000. Although all generations have turned more against the embargo in recent years, opposition to it is especially strong among those who have recently arrived from Cuba. Only 42 percent of those who came to the U.S. in the past 20 years are in favor of keeping it, compared with a majority of those who came before 1994. Cuban-Americans older than 65 favor continuing it; all age groups below 65 oppose it.

The American public overall has also grown more favorable to Cuba in recent years. Going back to 1999, Gallup has always found that more Americans have been in favor of ending the embargo than continuing it. And in Gallup’s 2009 survey, the most recent available, 60 percent of respondents said they favored “re-establishing U.S. diplomatic relations with Cuba.”

Finally, Cuban-Americans in Florida made up only 6 percent of all Florida voters in 2012. That means for the embargo to have much of an electoral impact, there would have to be a big backlash from the Cuban-American community. It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

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HARRY ENTEN @forecasterenten

Harry Enten is a senior political writer and analyst for FiveThirtyEight.


Anonymous said...

Ok, you have made your point about Cuban exiles, the embargo and now raising the Elian affair. These are all emotional issues to Cuban exiles but trust me, just like they have done over half a century, they will get up off the floor dust off and go back to work tomorrow. I'm sure if you discuss Auschwitz, the potato famine or the lynchings in the South you'd get similar reactions from the applicable ethnicities. Please move on.

neither armed nor dangerous said...

Get up off the floor? These exiles are the ruling elite of Miami, or at least they think they are. They believe they built this town and are entitled not only to say how it is run but how the US runs its foreign policy...They have not succeeded based on the logic of their argument but the volume of the debate, They won by being able to shout down any opposition.

In fact few foreign policies have failed as miserably as theirs (well maybe our mid east policies) After 50 years all we have to show for it is some aging millionaire despots sitting pretty and neither armed or dangerous millions still suffering.

Obama actions says. "OK guys, you've dicked around with this long enough, now sit down, shut up, nobody wants to hear your whining anymore. We're going let the big boys take care of this"

Anonymous said...

@U. S. Senator Marco Rubio Who are the terrorist in Miami? Cuban Americans? Shouldn't Miami be put on the "remains a state sponsor of terrorism." Will U. S. Senator Marco Rubio sponsor that Resolution?
By Jim Mullin Thursday, Apr 20 2000"Phrases like "mob rule" evoke frightening images of violence, which in turn sends Miami's damage-control specialists rushing to the microphones and insisting to the world that the Cuban-exile community is peace-loving, law-abiding, and (with emphasis now) nonviolent. Miami Mayor Joe Carollo in particular has been tireless in promoting that message. "Miami has been a peaceful, nonviolent community," he stressed to CNN last week. The historical record, however, clearly contradicts those assertions.

Lawless violence and intimidation have been hallmarks of el exilio for more than 30 years. Given that fact, it's not only understandable many people would be deeply worried, it's prudent to be worried. Of course it goes without saying that the majority of Cuban Americans in Miami do not sanction violence, but its long tradition within the exile community cannot be ignored and cannot simply be wished away.

The following list of violent incidents I compiled from a variety of databases and news sources (a few come from personal experience)."

Anonymous said...

"Saturday, December 20, 2014
Marco Rubio has a selective memory when he talks about Cuban terrorism
Note to Senator Rubio: Next time you want to use history to make a point, why not include all of it? "

Anonymous said...

Not only won't there be a backlash, there will be welcome signs all over Miami for the tourists stopping over going to Cuba. People are moving forward aggressively.

A company in New England is booking tours for a week in Cuba for $4,000. In Europe they are selling trips to Europeans with lines like "Explore Cuba before it becomes Americanized . . . See the unspoiled heritage of Cuba now while it is still there . . . See the real Cuba before it is gone. . . See the time wrap, go to Cuba . .Go back in time to Cuba. . . Go now to experience the country's unique character and charm before it changes forever".

We need to get our tourism operations ready for the masses of foreign visitors who will be coming!

Anonymous said...

I see what you mean. If Cuba is going to become like another Disneyland, then we have to rethink our tourism approach. If they are going to have a week in Cuba, then perhaps they could also have a week in Miami. But we would have to think through the Miami experience so we could give them a cohesive, enjoyable,and memorable experience.

Anonymous said...


"Get up off the floor? These exiles are the ruling elite of Miami, or at least they think they are. They believe they bui"

Your hatred for Cuban exiles is obvious since you pigeonhole every Cuban American in the same box. Go to Boston and Irish Americans control that city. Go to New York and i'ts the Jews. Go to Detroit and it's the African Americans. Trust me, there is plenty more corruption in those cities than here. Out of every Cuban American corrupt official you have a 1000 decent citizens who pays taxes and works hard. They do not need to apologize to any of you for their success.

Anonymous said...

Cuba survives on sex tourism and on all the idiots who send money to Cubans. The Castro's are laughing all the way to the bank. Sex tourism can now increase.

Anonymous said...

Why go to Cuba for sex? You can buy it in any street of this corripted nation.

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

As far as I know Cubans in Miami do not write or execute foreign policy. The U.S. Congress does. Instead of blaming Miami Cubans, blame every administration from Eisenhower to Bush W. for creating the conditions that led to Fidel Castro coming to power and subsequently allowed him to exile 3 million Cubans, seize American owned properties, export tons of marihuana and cocaine to the U.S., create guerrilas in every Latin American country and commit the worst human rights violations in this hemisphere over the last 55 years. Has anybody forgotten lunatic Castro asking the Soviets to deploy nuclear weapons against the U.S?

Anonymous said...

None issue if the Castro brothers no longer walked this earth. Old Cubans just waiting for Castors to die - this issue will die with them.

Anonymous said...

When it becomes open to American tourists, the cruise ships will be the best option. They can visit various sites of interest on the island during the day, and back on the ships for dinner at night, and enjoy luxury accommodations. The question is, can Cuba handle the ships and large numbers of people getting on and off ships?

Anonymous said...

The issue of the crimes committed by the Castro brothers will not "die with the old Cubans" as stated above. The destruction of families by execution or imprisonment of family members, the theft by expropiation of property and the forced exile of Cuban citizens remains latent in the minds of the younger generations. These are the kinds of things that will become clear when both Castro brothers are dead. All of these dreams of making friends with a communist regime can backfire very quick.

Anonymous said...

Anon dis you read the survey results?