Sunday, June 08, 2014

New Bendixen & Amandi Poll plumbs the depths of Miami-Dade Voters: the bottom line is WHO will actually decide to vote in August and then in November … by gimleteye

From June 3 to June 5, Bendixen & Amandi polled 400 Miami-Dade County voters on topical issues, in English and in Spanish with a margin of error of 4.3 percent. It separately polled Cuban American voters.

The first release of poll data tested public attitudes on the race for Florida governor and attitudes of Cuban American voters.

Poll results disclose that incumbent Gov. Rick Scott remains burdened by negative public perception and suffers in comparison to Democratic challenger Charlie Crist. If the race tightens, it will hinge on undecideds, women, and young Hispanic voters and the extent to which the incumbent and challenger can mobilize voters to the polls.

White Anglo and Black voters polled are nearly twice as likely to view Gov. Scott unfavorably, compared to Hispanic voters. By a nearly equal margin, close to 70%, Democratic and Republican voters are hardened to their party's candidate. While independent voters appear to favor Crist beyond the statistical margin of error, there are still some 21% of independents who have not made up their minds on the race.

In a straight out question; who would you vote for; Charlie Crist wins by 47% compared to Rick Scott at 35%. The race for governor is clearly going to be for the 18% of total respondents who said they "did not know" who they would vote for in November.

The divide between Hispanic Republicans and Democratic Anglo Whites and Blacks is as wide as ever. Among all ethnic/party affiliations there is a significant percentage who remain undecided.

The undecideds further lean to the younger generations, defined in the Bendixen & Amandi polls as 18-49. These voters, as Cuban Americans, also turn up as less convinced that the embargo against Cuba is serving a worthwhile purpose.

Interestingly, 57% of all Miami-Dade voters are women, indicating that the vote for women and independents is likely to determine the winner in Miami-Dade for governor.

During the same polling timeframe, Bendixen & Amandi interviewed 305 Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade. Their results have a 4.6% margin of error.

By a fairly significant margin, US born Cuban voters are more likely to view Charlie Crist favorably and Gov. Scott, unfavorably. If the election were held today, Scott would win among all Cuban voters by 28%. But for US born Cuban voters, the race between Scott and Crist is dead even.

The poll tests attitudes of Miami-Dade voters to Charlie Crist's announcement of his intent to visit Cuba. Although the issue is predictably flammable among conservative Cuban Americans, for most Miami-Dade voters -- on the order of 67% -- it is a non-issue in terms of the election. Still, some 34% of Hispanic voters are inclined to view Crist less favorably if he visits Cuba.

The shift is evident in the question whether unrestricted travel to Cuba should be supported or opposed. Only 40 percent of all Miami-Dade voters oppose unrestricted travel. 51% are for, and 9% are undecided. Among all Cuban voters, a startling 61% of US born Cubans support unrestricted travel to Cuba.

There remains a wide generational gulf between older Cuban American voters, defined as 50 and older, and younger: the older oppose unrestricted travel by 2/3 compared to the support by the younger generation, where 2 out of 3 are in favor of unrestricted travel.

Among all Miami-Dade voters, support and opposition to ending the embargo is nearly evenly divided, with 9% undecided.

In other words, for the Charlie Crist campaign the decision whether to visit Cuba or not mostly turns on its electoral significance among independent, undecideds, and the young Hispanic vote.

More importantly for both candidates for governor, what matters most is actually getting core constituencies to vote. Despite continued weakness, Republicans tend to be driven harder to the polls by perceived ideological conflicts. Democrats have reason to be concerned whether Black voters will vote with as much enthusiasm as during the last presidential election cycle. In many ways, the most important question of all is whether Charlie Crist can energize Democrats or whether the tens of millions being invested by the Scott camp to undermine Crist's credibility will weaken Democratic turnout.


Anonymous said...

I hate these polls because they call only land lines. The information is thus based on a population that still believes in corded phones during hurricane season. We are a group of mature folks who can foot the additional utility bill.

So, every time I answer I become a Hispanic aged 50-65.
I'm not, but I feel the need to be an "influencer" in Miami-Dade.

Anonymous said...

They still have land lines for residential customers?

Anonymous said...

No one under 50 answers a landline poll. Pollsters are idiots and the guys hiring them even more so.

Anonymous said...

Tomas Regalado was not born yesterday. He knows Beckham's scammers will buy absentee ballots and old folks votes.