Friday, March 07, 2014

How to Unseat an Incumbent. By Geniusofdespair

Fighting Incumbents...Not Easy: Jean Monestime and Daniella Levine Cava

In 2010 Jean Monestime ran against Dorrin Rolle. Jean got 53.26% of the vote and Dorrin, the incumbent got 46.74%. In that race Dorrin Rolle collected $388,408 and Jean Monestime raised $106,775. Monestime won.  You don't need as much money as the incumbent: You need a respectable amount. A candidate against an incumbent will get about 20% to 30% of the vote with about $20,000 collected. That is not enough money. Jean Monestime had a lot of donations under $50. He had a lot of $5 donations but few $500 donations. He had the money from the REAL people in his district. Monestime won with a little over a quarter of the funds. Let's get serious, a candidate CAN NEVER RAISE AS MUCH MONEY AS AN INCUMBENT. It can't be done, especially when the incumbent is vindictive, and Lynda Bell the County Commissioner in District 8 is known to be very vindictive. Just ask Elaine Navarre...oops she is dead.

So when I look at Danielle Levine Cava's numbers I am very pleased. She has already out-raised Jean Monestime - almost double what he raised. Money doesn't always do it. It helps, but there is more to a campaign than money.  The Miami Herald says:
Dorrin Rolle, Money didn't help him


The numbers, which have not yet been published by the elections department, would bring Bell's total campaign cash to $330,000, plus about $80,000 in her ECO, and Levine Cava's total to nearly $210,000. Those totals don't take into account expenditures, so they're not a true measure of how much cash each candidate has on hand.



16 comments:

Anonymous said...

I am praying that Daniella will take the golden ring. I know that lynda thinks she's the only one on God 's team, God sometimes works with or through those people who are a bit less self-righteous.

Best of what God can offer to District 8 and to Daniella. We need better, more mature, and less questionable services for our community.

Anonymous said...

I watched The Day it Snowed in Miami last night on PBS. The parallel of Bell and Bryant are scary. In the end, Bryant disappeared in to nowhere land after she prevailed in the 1st round. Hopefully history will repeat itself. Lynda Bell barely winning District 8 was an enigma. It's long past time for her to do something else other then meddling in the County sandbox or with individuals who she doesn't like or don't agree with her stupidity. My only fear with Daniella is the local Democratic Party. If they go far too left the District won't go for it due to the gerrymandered right leaning redistricting since the last election.

Anonymous said...

Dorrin Rolle was a clown. Too bad Monestine is not more well rounded. His district has more than one nationality.

Anonymous said...

Small contributors are very important, especially if they live and vote in the district. Each $5, $10, or $25 contributor represents votes in the election because when poor, struggling middle class, limited income people give of their limited disposable income, they will vote for that candidate at the election and encourage others to do likewise. So, while the total dollar value of these contributions may be small, their actual value for an election will be much greater than large dollar value contributions which represent no votes. One way to look at these small contributions is votes in the bank.

Anonymous said...

Candidates, get out and WALK your District. Have a plan, because the special money avalanche … the one that hides until the trigger is pulled at the end, is going to be there no matter who you are.

Anonymous said...

When you meet Daniella, you respect her. Her experience with Catalyst Miami, honestly makes me feel that she can be the change that straightens out the downward spiral of county government. The current administration has failed due to poor communications between the bullying Mayors Office and the BCC. She'll be skilled with intelligence and charm to break down barriers and demand transparency.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Last anon, I highly doubt what you're saying is true. If it is, that means Daniella will win for sure because Seijas was the one who helped Bell beat Flinn in 2010.

Geniusofdespair said...

That comment wasn't going to fly but you knew that. This isn't an open forum to try to trash Daniella. Do it on your own blog.

Geniusofdespair said...

Natacha, like just about everyone else that helped Lynda Bell in her campaign was double-crossed by Bell, like long time friend, Republican Lois Jones who now supports Daniella. Daniella accepts support, it doesn't mean she is beholden to the people supporting her.

Anonymous said...

Last Anon Also same Seijas that didnt even get 10% support in her recall.

Anonymous said...

Voters overwhelmingly voted against vile Seijas in the election to Recall Seijas. Smart voters. 90% right?

Anonymous said...

Smart Voters? How about greedy voters. They didn't want their taxes raised and she raised their taxes.

Anonymous said...

i so love knowing that Bell is reading and submitting stupid comments. Bell, you are evil and simply must go. try Russia.

MSW said...

Hmmm. Spare us the Natacha drama. As a social worker, I appreciated natacha from her social interest point of view. Doesn't mean I had to like her politics.
P

Anonymous said...

The point is that a majority of voters might be smart enough to dump Bell.