The script -- polished to a fine shine by the GOP media message machine -- is that the public will turn on the Democrats when the government is shut down this week and revolt against the roll out of Obamacare. This two pronged strategy is a GOP disaster in the making and bound to backfire with the voting public.
How do we know? For one, when Karl Rove tries to wipe his fingerprints off a political disaster -- as happening right now -- you know that running from the impending meltdown is the only sane choice. Of course that's not what's happening on Capitol Hill, where video cameras are catching Republican members of Congress acting with the hubris and confidence of Japanese nuclear power engineers.
The Obama administration predicts that in the first month of the Obamacare rollout, 7 million Americans will avail themselves of the opportunity to enroll in new healthcare opportunities. The number is likely vastly understated. Under promise and over deliver: that's the first rule of marketing. But the Republican "business experts" seem to be blinded by their own products.
What they can't fathom is that the silent majority of Americans have been standing in the background, scared and shocked by the nasty political assaults -- launched by Republicans for the insurance industry and backed by Tea Party enthusiasts. Yes, the polarization of American politics is real. But, when Americans can save money -- alot of money -- on healthcare, the divisions dissolve.
Just wait for the assessment of how many Americans flood to change their insurance to take advantage of the new competitiveness and coverages. For the Republicans, that is going to be Disaster Number One.
Disaster Number Two, the government shutdown, is tied to Disaster Number One. GOP leaders who calculate that the refusal of Americans to embrace Obamacare will link up with revulsion against government spending and thereby drive a final nail in the Democratic/ Obama coffin are off their rockers. First of all, President Obama will be vindicated through the success of health care reform: an epochal event. Secondly, GOP leadership who triggered the government shutdown will be held accountable by an energized public who will use the example of successful health care reform -- Obama was right on health care, Republicans were wrong -- and Democrats were right: government is not the problem, the problem is Republican corporatism.
In the 2014 election cycle, Republican leadership will stand before the American public, like contrite engineers apologizing for the meltdown of Japanese nuclear reactors. You will see a lot of Republican members of Congress changing into street clothes, trying to be inconspicuous. No one wants their fingerprints on the GOP disaster.