Mitt Romney decided on Paul Ryan as his VP selection to shake up his campaign that still can't gain traction in the polls. Many Republicans from Florida had been praying for Romney to select Florida Senator Marco Rubio, but there are very good reasons -- all disclosed by polling -- Romney decided against him.
When Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan visit Miami tomorrow, the smartest thing they could do to put Obama on his heels in Florida is to come out against the Cuba embargo; a position that Ryan has repeatedly endorsed.
What's the reasoning? Romney has Republican Cuban Americans in the bag. Repeating the thread-worn, legacy support for the Cuba embargo among a voting bloc that will not split for Obama, gains him nothing.
The embargo is a legacy litmus test only in Miami, increasingly to a segment of the vote that is aged and elderly. As EOM has written in the past, the embargo is being broken every single day to benefit Cuban American families and their relatives on both sides of the Florida Straits.
Coming to Versailles or Palacios de los Jugos is like checking a box in South Florida. The real contest is for independents and non-Cuban Hispanics. The entire election comes down to swing voters and Hispanics that view the Miami obsession with Castro as penalizing both sides of the divide.
Romney and Ryan can win Florida with an anti-embargo platform because both groups of crucial voters -- independents and non-Cuban Hispanics -- view the embargo with resentment.
Finally, if Romney comes out against the embargo tomorrow there will be a rainbow effect with large non Cuban Hispanics in crucial electoral states in the west.
Romney and Ryan can win Florida with an anti-embargo platform because both groups of crucial voters -- independents and non-Cuban Hispanics -- view the embargo with resentment.
Finally, if Romney comes out against the embargo tomorrow there will be a rainbow effect with large non Cuban Hispanics in crucial electoral states in the west.
The expression, "when the people lead, the leaders will follow", applies. On Cuba, the people are leading every day. Just look at the lines for the morning flights out of Miami International Airport; a better location for Mr. Romney's press conference tomorrow.
The people for Romney to pay attention to is not the crowd at Palacios de los Jugos. They are likely to view the embargo as a weapon mainly effective in enforcing political orthodoxies in Miami-Dade. But its logic has petered out. If Mitt Romney wants an immediate impact, he will take Paul Ryan's advice: drop the Cuba embargo.
5 comments:
I respectfully diagree. Alienating the conservative Cuban community (and others who are hawkish on foreign policy) will reduce thier turnout, without any real offset by moderates who support a repeal of the embargo. The Cuban embargo ranks very high among conservative Cubans and very low among everybody else. Romney won't net an increase in votes by flip-flopping, and he will definitely lose millions of votes among Republicans and Independants for the flip-flop itself. A porous embargo is better than none, and the US must not ease sanctions against this brutal regime.
I don't think so. Ryan will 'moderate' his position on this one.
Lifting the embargo will prompt pro-embargo Cuban hardliners to sit out the election rather than doing something they simply can't do. They might be 'in the bag', but that doesn't mean they will come out and vote. At the same time, it would go against the still-strong anti-Communist (and growing anti-China) sentiment in the 6-pack, gun cradling Republican base.
Wait. The hard liners will never vote for Obama and they are not going to stay home. The business community in Miami need a jump start. The black-market, under the table Miami economy isn't enough. This would screw up the Democrats big time because it would carry to New Mexico and Nevada and Colorado.
I think that sometimes we tend to underestimate the Cuban vote. The younger generation of Cubans, say 45 and under, are more moderate than their elders. They are increasing the NPA and Independent regisration. Although they might not say it out loud, Cuba is not a primary issue to resolve and they are far more likely to believe in relaxing our dealings with Havana.
Let us just pray that they turn out to vote.
I disagree. The younger Cuban-Americans (30 - 45) are increasingly more conservative and more involved in bringing about true freedom and liberty to the island, before lifting the embargo. I dont rely on polls, I participate in professional organizations and social clubs, and I see this every day.
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