Charlie Cook Election Briefing in DC ... by gimleteye

Charlie Cook briefing on elections in DC this morning.


Top Takeaways

· Pending redistricting, GOP will lose 5 - 15 House seats in 2012 election

· GOP will gain 3 - 5 Senate seats in 2012 election

· Redistricting will likely lead to zero net gains for either party, but GOP incumbents will have increased security

· Presidential race is GOP's to lose

· Independents will again play key role (Obama needs to shore up white voters over 50, non-educated white voters, and women)

· Job approval will be an important poll to watch, but not until December or January

o Presidents with over 48% Job Approval usually win, below 48% they lose

· Change (from prior year) in real disposable income (after taxes/inflation) will be a key indicator as well

· Glen Bolger says GOP must win OH, FL, and NC to win Presidency in 2012

o And they can win without VA

· Extended GOP primary season could hurt GOP Latino vote based on rhetoric around immigration


Additional Information on Takeaways

US House

§ Only House seats with hotly contested primaries or reside in truly competitive districts will have a chance to switch party control (thinking 10 races nationally where GOP have a good shot).

§ For Dems to win more than 15 House seats is very unlikely. Only in midterm elections or when the opposite party controls the White House do more than 15 seats switch control in House.


US Senate

§ There are about 10 endangered Democratic Senate seats and currently only 2 GOP Senate seats in play.

§ Watch for sleeper Senate race where Dem could lose due to disconnect with working class white voters.


Presidency

§ Unemployment data and GDP growth are also two other good trends to watch.

§ GOP will have a hard time winning with Perry, Palin or Bachmann.

§ Can win with Romney, Huntsman (long shot to be nominee) or Christie (who just said he isn't running).

§ Low approval numbers among current GOP governors will help Obama win states like WI, OH, ME, etc.

§ Most agree that Dems will win Michigan.

§ Cook says 2012 map will be similar to 2008 re: battleground states.

§ Indiana is pointless for Dems to pursue.

§ Question marks around Pennsylvania.

§ Anna says OH, FL, and CO will go for Obama in 2012 and to begin with the 2004 map instead.

o Also thinks Dems will win NM.


Redistricting

§ Florida, California, Texas, and Maryland could generate explosive redistricting results, but will still end up with few raw seat adds on either side.


Other

§ Anna Greenberg says GOP has an issue with their brand.

§ Obama's favorability numbers are still higher than GOP's, aside from most economic issues.

§ Obama and GOP poll even on the issue of deficits.

§ Glen Bolger says Obama likely needs to climb higher in consumer confidence, but can still win where it now stands.

o Also says Obama has issues with Latino and white voters.

§ 1/3 of the GOP identifies with the Tea Party.