Here's what Bloomberg is reporting this afternoon: "Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for a second month, indicating that rising unemployment is prompting consumers to conserve cash." The market is down 150 points. But if you really want to know what is going to happen to retail in the months ahead, another news report serves as an indicator: "Cargo ships treading water off Singapore, waiting for work." According to the NY Times, 735 cargo ships are idled offshore. "Hundreds of cargo ships — some up to 300,000 tons, with many weighing more than the entire 130-ship Spanish Armada — seem to perch on top of the water rather than in it, their red rudders and bulbous noses, submerged when the vessels are loaded, sticking a dozen feet out of the water... The root of the problem lies in an unusually steep slump in global trade, confirmed by trade statistics announced on Tuesday. China said that its exports nose-dived 22.6 percent in April from a year earlier, while the Philippines said that its exports in March were down 30.9 percent from a year earlier. The United States announced on Tuesday that its exports had declined 2.4 percent in March." The flu seems a perfect reflection of the economy. And students of the stock market are about to learn the lesson of bear market rallies.
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