GOP primary politics in Florida: who is persuadable? ... by gimleteye

(graph, from Bill Moyers and Company)

For political operators in their respective GOP camps, the fate of the upcoming presidential primary in Florida -- a little more than a week from now-- is a chess game on at least a few levels. The competition between Jeb Bush and Newt Gingrich for the mantle of the Republican Party began long ago: back in the early 1990's when it was Jeb, not George, who was trying to surface for air within the GOP leadership and Newt was holding him down, armed with a raft of brilliant ideas aimed directly at Bill Clinton, Hillary, and the Democrats.

That was long before the real now: a depression engulfing the nation in bits and pieces-- excepting, of course, the one percent. The bitter resentments of economic collapse are just barely below the surface in the state that bought into the housing bubble lock, stock and barrel.

A weekend poll by Bendixen and Amandi International for The Miami Herald indicates twice as many Hispanics as Anglos believe the local economy and availability of jobs in Florida's most populous county, Miami-Dade, is getting worse. As the fraud capital of America, South Florida shows how the entrepreneurial engines of the economy thrive at the edges. Those edges are frayed so badly that locals are willing to embrace casinos and full scale gambling in a conservative, values-voter state that only a few years ago used houses and condos as ATM's for personal lines of credit.

One looks at the results and wonders, instantly, how did we get here? How did Florida engage in a race to the bottom, all the while championing its "exceptionalism"? On these points, Floridians don't want to be educated. Another point raised by the Bendixen poll: people who didn't pay attention to the economy or politics when the economy was strong-- buttressed by layers of debt-- are paying even less attention now.

So the resentments burn. In his South Carolina victory speech, Gingrich flitted about those resentments like a moth to a bright light. He certainly knows his re-incarnation as a presidential candidate was not due to the embrace of the Republican establishment. As a victim of his own slash and burn style of politics, Gingrich had his solo show to himself and paying corporate audiences until the Tea Party decided to like his act. The Gingrich allure is not about redemption-- the marriages, the divorces, the miserable behavior of an adult who was also Speaker of the House -- it is about persuading Republicans that his brand of guts, intelligence, and pure meanness is just what is needed to build a new future from the carcasses of his enemies. He knows his audience.

But Gingrich's enemies in Florida are the same Republicans who helped inflate the housing bubble through Jeb! and George W. Bush's policies, letting money supply flow like a carburetor set to wide open. Between ex-Senator Phil Gramm and ex-Fed Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, they flooded the engine but good. Newt in Florida has company. He may have worked as a "consultant and not a lobbyist" for Freddie Mac, but Jeb did the same for Lehman Brothers.

Both Jeb and his proxy, Senator Marco Rubio, will be lying low this week, or, rally the troops in digestible, mild sound bites. Yes attack Obama. No do not criticize the GOP. The Latin Builders Association-- Republican to the core-- will be welcoming Newt. Who knows if the anti-Bush Gingrich will pick up any markers in Miami or whether it will be more like Roman senators welcoming Caesar to make his last speech.

It could be that Mitt Romney achieves in Florida what he failed to do in South Carolina and begins to put to rest the insurgency. If he doesn't, and Gingrich prevails here, the long slog could turn into one of those wild fires sweeping through tinder dry forests. 

Meanwhile, the concentration of Republicans is being diverted from their task in November: persuading independent voters that the great income inequality in America today is the natural result of the free market. For that, they will have Citizens United to help.