Polling, Press, and the Miami-Dade Mayor's Race ... by gimleteye

The GOP kingmakers who supported Julio Robaina have some thinking to do. First of all, one of the tactics has been to run down The Miami Herald. It happens in the Spanish-language, bought-and-paid for media. It happens through officials, like former county commissioner VNS whose harangues against and refusal to speak to the Herald has carried over to fellow commissioners. But Herald coverage does matter and does have influence.

Then there is the matter of polling. Some readers and anonymous posters have run down Bendixen and Amandi's poll results, published in the Herald before the election showing Gimenez (surprisingly) leading Robaina by 10 points. Robaina supporters are crying foul but their own, and Giminez' too, tracked Bendixen Amandi. At the end, Gimenez only won by three points. Apparently it took the GOP kingmakers right to the very end to believe their candidate was in trouble. In the last days of the campaign, they poured hundreds of thousands into precincts where they believed they could make the difference. Hialeah and Hialeah Gardens voted for Robaina by 77 and 68 percent majorities.

What is more interesting, though, is what happened in Sweetwater, unincorporated Dade and West Dade, where Gimenez support might have been nicked by the local county commissioners; Pepe Diaz and Joe Martinez. In those districts, voting results were in favor of Gimenez by 55, 54, and 51 percent. Clearly, voters --- albeit in small numbers-- paid attention to news about the candidates.

Anyone can read the tea leaves, however they want, but they cannot conclude that pollsters "pushed" voters. Bendixen Amandi were right. The Herald was right on its endorsement (as was, Eyeonmiami).

Here are a few more tea leaves: 1) voters will not let a Rick Scott stunt go unpunished next time for refusing to speak to newspaper editorial boards. Picking up where Sarah Palin left off, Scott refused to speak to the editorial boards. By 2012, the bluster and fury of the Tea Party / independents will have run its course on its antagonism to the press. It is too late to reverse Scott as governor, but his was a one-time event. 2) a moderate candidate could win the office of county mayor in Miami-Dade. It is not clear that a non-Hispanic, like former county commissioner Katy Sorenson, could win. But assuming a moderate like Sorenson could raise enough cash and survive a primary to a run-off: he or she would be a shoe-in. I don't have to poll-test this observation: the sound of GOP kingmakers gnashing their teeth is loud, even here. 3) Gimenez has an opportunity. But he needs to surround himself with higher caliber people and listen, and by listening, push the edge of his political envelope.

Can Gimenez evolve as a leader, or, will he accept the honors of office like borrowed furniture until it is time to move on to some other honoraria? What are the odds, of Carlos Gimenez becoming a leader with endurance, compassion, and a willingness to box out the monied interests that pushed for Julio Robaina? We will find out, soon enough.