Change is coming faster to Cuba, than Washington ... by gimleteye

Not many Cuban American business leaders in Miami felt an uptick of happiness with news that the longest economic downturn since the Great Depression ended in June 2009. More than a few cigars were lit by the news, to find comfort in smoke. In South Florida, the economic model based on converting raw land into subdivisions-- the bread and butter of the Latin Builders Association-- is still busted. In Florida's counties and municipalities, the carnage continues unabated. But the hurt is not equally shared. The developers and bankers who became rich supporting real estate and related development, identified as Hispanic but mainly lead by Cuban Americans, may be 'walking dead' in their corporate entities: they still control Miami politics.

If not for Bush and Obama policies allowing access to zero interest capital from the Federal Reserve, the entire apparatus would have collapsed in early 2009. Instead, in place of breadlines, MIami experiences a stagnant political order enforced by lobbying contracts, campaign fundraising according to the established order, government subsidies, and the fact that government employment is the most secure shelter in an economic storm that did not abate for Cuban American leaders in Miami or for anyone else in June 2009.

While drywall was flying off the shelves, the political order of Miami -- organized around hatred of Fidel Castro to deliver the block Cuban American vote-- also ordered the state legislature, in Tallahassee. The non-Hispanic development lobby and political order from Port St. Lucie to Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa, had plenty in common with Miami: if growth was good, more growth was better, and if government served the purpose of knocking down regulations and barriers to suburbs in wetlands and farmland, organizing public investment around the needs of campaign supporters and contributors, no one did it better than Miami-Dade's Cuban American leadership.

While the Cuban economy has been mired mostly in decay, it is not the same result as Miami and Miami-Dade where the tsunami built around the housing bubble created instant wealth in housing and, now, a depression in housing values. Cuban American business leaders are waiting for the miracle to come: the revival of the bubble. But all the tax breaks, all the tax credits and economic incentives for home ownership could not absorb the excess inventory in housing; not in a year and not in a decade.

In Cuba, the pent-up demand for new economic opportunity and latent creativity of human capital will be a more powerful engine than in Florida, where sodden, water-logged politics based on a stagnant political order weigh Miami down. The Cuban American business elite know this is true: they have been organizing in their imaginations to do business in Havana as long as they have hated Fidel. Meanwhile, Cuba turns to Brazil, to Spain, Germany and Canada-- not to mention, Caracas. The Miami Cubans have been brought up short by the depth of the economic crash. Their best idea is to hold the line: keep the political order, the government employment, the status quo in position. Keep the lobbyists at Greenberg Traurig and Cardenas busy selecting political candidates who will pass zoning changes whenever they are needed, keep tax dollars flowing to enterprises to benefit friends and family. And when challengers arise, push them down hard.

Because political conditions in Miami-- and in Florida-- are based on a decrepit economic model of growth, there is very little room for movement in US policies toward Cuba. In Cuba, the incentives for economic change are powerfully mobilizing. In Miami, there is no incentive for change. We wait for the miracle to come, looking for work in government. We hire more lobbyists. Vote for Rubio. Bring back the past, that brought us the present while the world changes around us.