A federal stress test for land use, not just banks ... by gimleteye

The following appears today on the online daily journal, Counterpunch. It is an expansion of themes I've developed here, at EOM. (please click, 'read more')

May 7, 2009

Federal Stress Test for Land Use, Not Just Banks

No Place Like Home

By ALAN FARAGO

Economists agree that the collapse in housing markets in the United States plunged world economies into the worst crisis since the 1930’s. A revival of housing markets and new construction is one of the anticipated signs of recovery. In the meantime, the US taxpayer is on the hook for trillions of dollars of debt constituted from the detritus of the housing boom. If value is to be created in service of a new economic order, it is imperative that stimulus money be directed in ways that prevent reigniting a model of growth through construction and development that has demonstrably failed: namely, through the fraudulent wealth creator called suburban sprawl.

Congress recently permitted banks to no longer mark to market their toxic assets. In a real sense, this action postpones the day of reckoning for sprawl and its rotted foundation: derivative debt tied to mortgage backed securities. This wink and nod papers over—at immense taxpayer expense—and delays accounting for the excesses of the debt that showered billions on Wall Street and its supply chain.

In the final stage of the housing boom, from California’s Central Valley to the suburbs of Washington DC, it was called “the ownership society”: a marriage of greed and political imperatives accruing mainly to operatives and special interests identified with the Republican Party. Although we are through all that, by not confronting suburban sprawl and its costs directly, the Obama White House takes on considerable risk.

Here, there is danger in letting sleeping dogs lie. The construction and building industries, related to sprawl housing and construction of fringe suburbs, is dead as a doornail. Perhaps it is a pragmatic not to ask too directly; who owns what? On the other hand, the taxpayer does own a multi-trillion dollar share of assets that are rotten, toxic, cratered: our choice.

And since it is our choice, really, whether to shoulder such enormous fiscal burdens as the costs of suburban sprawl rotting on balance sheets everywhere, we might ask some common sense questions. For instance, if the day of reckoning of asset values is being delayed so that an incipient recovery (‘green shoots’) can help financial institutions and jobs through the crisis, what is the end result we have in mind?

A very small, powerful, and wealthy constituency is waiting for the pump to be primed, so that suburban sprawl can rise from its ashes and all asset bubbles begin inflating again. This is, after all, the path of least resistance. Marriages of convenience are convenient precisely because roles are well established. Economists offer no solution to the way greed lubricates political ambition and deforms democracy at the same time.

So if this is where we are headed, then it stands to reason that the recovery-to-be looks exactly like the same sprawling, platted opportunities for growth that are now half-empty subdivisions, or, millions of square feet of empty condos and strip malls and other commercial space built in the last gasp of an artificial boom serving hedge funds, flippers, and banks turned speculators. President Obama says otherwise, but there is nothing in TARP, or TALF, or any other specific funding measure to prevent stimulus moneys from flowing down exactly the same channels in respect to the built landscapes of America's suburbs.

If we want, as a nation, another model of economic growth; one that does land us in the same crisis we are in, today, then “stress tests” for banks are a very rough tool for a job that requires fine thought and action. Banks are agnostic. They will sell loans to whatever the market wants and is within legal parameters. The market pretends to be agnostic, but it is not.

Indeed, if you pull the thread of controlling regulations intended to keep solid financial institutions far from the hands of speculators—in particular as relates to property development—where you end up is a place much closer to the need for “stress testing”: the underlying zoning and land use for construction and development.

The question of the hour is not why banks should be subject to stress tests but why land use decisions by local—and sometimes state—government are not. This is, after all, the fertile soil from which so much debt exploded like noxious weeds.

Banks and other financial institutions involve economic activities that link the interests of all Americans and so are regulated by the federal government. But test of federal interest is also true of land use, especially in farmland that converts to fringe suburbs through zoning changes by local government. Why should “one size fit all” when it comes to federal regulation of banks and insurance companies, but that control of private property is whatever owners can persuade local government to allow?

Both financial markets and raw land for suburbs have provided the opportunity for speculators arbitrage the inefficiency of laws regulating financial derivatives and what can be built from those confections of debt. The absence of regulations in financial derivatives marches hand in hand with the blushing bride: an empty, hollowed out regulatory structure that has failed to protect quality of life, environment, and communities.

A truer scenario for economic recovery would impose a stress test on zoning for land development, incorporating a higher set of hurdles than “concurrency” models that turn local zoning decisions into a game of counting angels on the head of a pin.

Almost as soon as the housing markets began to crash, the air at conservative foundations was filled with noise that land use regulations were to blame for our economic ills. Indeed, in state legislatures like Florida’s, the economic crisis has provided lobbyists from the Growth Machine with energy to knock down what marginal protections exist for sustainable growth. Instead of solving the budget crises, Florida’s Idiocracy is chasing down and mauling the state agency charged with growth management, pinning blame on too much regulation of development. The truth is that the sorts of development local and state government lavished attention to matched up exactly to the shape and cut of financial derivatives that wrecked the nation’s financial institutions.

Those responsible for the economic disaster are excellent at counting angels on a pin. Instead of medieval monks, we have land use and property rights lawyers, spurred on by speculators and local bankers who bought mortgages and sold them in packages and pools without looking or raising a single eyebrow. They are anti-regulation Idiocrats in a daisy chain with local title companies, mortgage brokers in Florida, and cement manufacturers promoting infrastructure by the ton, scooping up zoning officials and local politicians of every stripe along the way.

They are former Wall Street risk analysts lying low behind gated estates in Fairfield County, Connecticut and executives from Standard and Poor’s, Moody's and AMBAC, paid billions to miscalculate risk of derivatives bundling suburban sprawl. They are Congressmen and White House economic advisors, past and present, who made sure that derivatives received communion every time they came from the pews. Everyone took a slice. Everyone ate a wafer. Everyone skimmed from the top. (The Miami Herald detailed how more than 10,000 felons permitted to become Florida mortgage brokers. Regrettably, Herald executives never unleashed its investigative team to track the fraud up the political food chain. They had the beast in its hands and let it go.)

Few in the supply chain thought there was a risk to the fetid, lousy development that passed for sound judgment and property rights.

When bankers and the real estate development lobby get hold of reporters, what they say is this: be careful not to throw out the baby with the bath water. But a stress test of what suburban sprawl has done to our nation would pass no one’s muster except those who profited mightily from making derivatives out of every kind of stable value. The simple home and wetland is equally orphaned by the madness that has allowed “private property rights” to triumph over every reasonable protection of the public commons.

Here is one example that stands for thousands: Vitran Homes of the Preserve; a failed platted subdivision of two baker’s dozen in Southern Miami Dade County. Miami Dade is the epicenter of the housing boom and bust for this reason: the code was broken, here, in the mid 1990’s, tying conservative values in the political sphere, to deregulation of financial instruments in the economic sphere, permitting unfettered building and construction to bludgeon laws protecting the environment, and government agencies, like a copper penny flattened on a railroad track. And it all went very badly wrong.

Today, Vitran Homes exists as shells formed of concrete blocks shaped into a single story, false gabled homes set in weed-strewn, former farmland. To say the development is unfinished is an understatement. Its window openings are open to violation by the elements and squatters: spaces for doors and half-completed stick frame joists propping up Mediterranean tiled roofs.

That’s the outside. Inside, the “homes” have been christened by broken bottles, crushed shopping carts, an aquarium lying in a pool of its own glass, a discarded pair of pants hardened into unintelligible evidence. The development is post apocalyptic; a place for teenagers seeking relief from boredom, drugs and the ritual testing how reality shatters on cement, a haven for stray dogs and squatters. Vitran Homes is not a work-in-progress: it is a work in collapse.

What Vitran Homes does “preserve”, and all that it preserves, is the hubris that accompanied the building boom, scattering low cost production housing into Florida farmland and wetlands like confetti. According to a recent AP story, nearly one in four houses in the neighboring Homestead and Florida City areas are in foreclosure: one of the highest rates in the nation.

When you hear the term “toxic assets”, think: these access roads, these lots, these concrete shells occupy an address in the portfolio of a bank or insurance company or hedge fund that may have used properties like this as collateral for a loan, for another insurance-related product like a credit default swap. Today, you may own it. It may be yours.

Appropriately, Vitran Homes is identified as “theoretical” SW 226th Street. It is theoretical the way that the asset value is represented as theoretical debt still marked on some bank’s balance sheet, and now pegged to a level that retains the simulacrum of value on a balance sheet. There is nothing theoretical about the weeds reclaiming Vitran Homes. There is not a job in sight, unless you count the new hospital at Homestead whose patients were scavenged from other nearby hospitals, mostly uninsured and uninsurable in the wealthiest nation on earth. It was all good, until it was crap.

On the other side of the street from Vitran in South Miami Dade, a Google Earth satellite image shows a massive development by Miami’s homegrown heavyweight production homebuilder—Lennar Corporation--, scarified and prepped and ready for cement. The Google photo is only a few years old. It shows the green land scraped bare: white as bone or the dust of ancient, pulverized coral reef.

Today the Lennar development is finished in a manner of speaking. The entire development has the look as if its building plans were printed from a single computer file: this one has two hundred fifty units, Mediterranean like the rest of South Florida off the Turnpike, fire hydrants spaced and cul de sacs measured according to code, building materials spec’ed in China, etc.

A key feature of the financing underlying platted subdivisions like this is sameness. Ratings agencies like Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s bless derivatives according to computer models that match the theoretical housing, from cement to every other cost element, to theoretical addresses and surrounding demographics: the imagined pool of American consumers who flock to sameness because it is low-cost and filled with features that support consumer “preferences”.

Back in the day, the proponents of so much Lennar-type sprawl called it “what the market wants”. What the market wants was shouted from the rafters of the National Association of Homebuilders to the National Association of Realtors, from Associated Industries to the Chambers of Commerce. The mainstream media, especially newspapers, bought it hook-line-and-sinker because it came attached with muscular advertising dollars. Today, the entire region feels as though the oxygen has been sucked out and all that remains are hapless passengers stranded by a bus that never will never arrive.

The Lennar regional VP is the president of the Latin Builders Association; the influential Miami-based lobbying group that controlled Miami politics through vilification of Castro while imposing its own hegemony through the award of county contracts, from road building to the painting of highway stripes, from insider deals at Miami International Airport to the conversion of the last remaining farmland in South Florida to suburban sprawl. The owner of Vitran Homes of the Preserve is a director of the South Florida Builders Association.

Theirs was a game of risk to play private profit through artificial demand, inflated by land use lawyers paid $500 to $750 an hour and especially, to berate citizen objectors ("They don't know what they are talking about.") and bedazzle officials with powerpoint presentations and slick graphics papering over campaign contributions delivered, sometimes, in paper sacks. No one knew what they were talking about, and especially not in the vegetable fields where farmers loved pallets of sheet rock more than pole beans, cement trucks more than tomatoes, and the certainty of road graders and ditch witches in irrigation fields.

When it comes to suburban sprawl, everyone was paid and paid well to be dumb as dirt.

Production homebuilders and their associations do excel in this: use profits from mass production housing to blow through calculations of risk in zoning and permitting of development. Whether risk to investors or the environment, it is all the same: a blazing confidence that public policy must keep its mitts off the formulas that worked so well in the past; an imaginary tide lifting all fictitious names and luxury yachts registered in the Bahamas. Developments like Vitran Homes are exactly what the builders' lobby wanted and lobbied for, turning valuable farmland into the fiction of demand and manageable risk. They were neither.

Lennar recently took out an unusual advertisement in the Miami Herald: “Builder Closeout: Every Condo Must Be Sold”. It was a full page ad in bold red, white and black graphics. No longer, at least in the case of its two enormous Miami developments called Colonnade and North Bay Village, is Lennar trying to lure buyers with the promise of protection if the buyer loses his or her job. Now it’s a “Sealed-Bid Auction: Your Best Price Plus Zero Dollars Closing Costs!”

At the very same time, the corporation is offloading its stale inventory at auction. In the midst of the worst housing markets in a century, Lennar is promoting zoning changes in Miami-Dade farmland—a multi-thousand unit development called Parkland-- outside Miami-Dade’s Urban Development Boundary, close to the Everglades. The company wants the zoning change today, even though it will be 2014 before the development is ready for occupancy.

Lennar wants its cake and eat it too: fair enough. As long as you are inside the legal boundaries, why not?

There is nothing mystical about the deals and hand-shakes between developers and officials charged with zoning decisions that lead to so much carnage in farmland and on waterfronts. Across the America’s suburban landscape, there has been nothing like “wise use”. The pattern of low density suburban sprawl has wrecked aquifers, destroyed natural habitats and, at during the political ascendancy of “family values” torn apart families by imposing huge costs on commuters and consumers.

If “wise use” worked, why have American taxpayers been forced to shoulder the trillions in debt, underwriting the horrendous miscalculation of risk that showered wealth from Wall Street down the supply chain of developers and production homebuilders, into the campaign coffers of local city and county commissioners?

In respect to promoting regulatory reform of banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies, the Obama White House has been exceedingly careful. Banks should be subject to stress tests.

But there should also be a federal “stress test” for local zoning, tied to subsidies to states and local jurisdictions. Without a federal stress test, including measures to prevent fiscal stimulus billions from reviving suburban sprawl, Americans will continue to be driven by a growth machine that is in key respects a Ponzi scheme, requiring future taxpayers to shoulder the costs of trillion dollar mistakes. A top-down approach to stress testing financial institutions will not lead to any kind of recovery—because the revolving door of big engineering firms, planners, government agencies, lobbyists, and elected officials is committed to reviving a failed economic model of growth.

Real estate developers, their supply chain, and land speculators are taking advantage of confusion and the appearance of relative calm in stock markets to harden their bunkers before citizens take up the pitchforks. The conservative foundation gin mills are hard at work buffing and polishing and re-branding failed models of growth.

If banks are stress tested but underlying land use is not, future growth will be along exactly the same pathways leading to the worst economic crisis since the Depression, green shoots and all. It doesn't have to be that way, but does President Obama understand why it is?

Put Your Money Up to Make It Better in Miami! By Geniusofdespair

Many of you are too shy to collect petition signatures but you have money to help a PAC to pay for petition collectors. Think about investing money in better government in Miami. Keep that wallet open for Gimenez's PAC on the transportation tax (If he forms a PAC).

Another use for your money, help Beba Mann (This is a link) who is running for City of Miami Commissioner. Have you given to her campaign? Why not? So what if she is not in your district, she can make a difference. We have to start somewhere to get HONEST people in office that aren't beholden to lobbyists. Let's start with Beba. When an honest person steps up to the plate, they need all the help they can get. We can't keep saying "Elect good people" and then we don't fund them so they don't have a fighting chance. That is like those anti-abortion people that say "Have the baby, have the baby" and then once the baby is born they are no where to be found to help the mother and baby. Mensa: Send Beba money! You are always saying good people should run. Everyone who can afford it, give her a hundred bucks. Tell her G.o.D. of E.o.M. thinks it is important. For those who can't afford it: Send her $10. It means a lot. Step up or stop whining.

Daily flu thermometer ... by gimleteye

Medical journalist Helen Branswell points to an excellent flu story on NPR this morning, to be broadcast on local public radio station WLRN. The speed with which scientists have been able to identify the possible agent of pandemic flu is unbelievable. Isn't it interesting to think how quickly we can mobilize science and incredible technologies to protect humanity from a microscopic virus for which we have no immunity, yet when it comes to violence we do to each other and the environment, we are still in the Stone Age.

Why was the PAC, Black Americans for Accountability in Government formed? By Geniusofdespair

I stumbled across this curious political action committee a while back, Jan. 2, 2008 blog. I think I finally got to the bottom of it.

Lobbyist Ron Book filed the Corporate Papers for a Corporation, Urban Initiatives, Inc., that gave $25,000 to this PAC called Black Americans for Accountability in Government. The Corporation's only Director is Willis Howard who also signed for the PAC, treasurer? The PAC spent $21,500 on printing 10/15/07 from Graphic Images in Opa Locka, it is now in Pompano Beach. The PAC purpose was slots/tax cuts. Wasn't Ron Book also involved in that slots vote in January 2008?

The Next Big Thing: The Unbelievable Nuclear Fiasco at the edge of Biscayne National Park: check out new sea level rise imagery ... by gimleteye

In 2007, the unreformable majority of Miami Dade County Commissioners approved a special use permit sought by FPL that committed county agencies and staff to help plan the pesky local details of two new nuclear reactors in South Dade. Fortunately, county government is not turning a blind eye to the real consequences of climate change. The problem is that we don't have leadership in local government to make the connection. It's cheaper, I guess, for electricity consumers to spend $20 billion until we're all wearing hip-waders. Doubly strange: while FPL is adapting its energy portfolio to global warming, its corporate officers and key planners are studiously ignoring how much global warming will cost rate payers who live at sea level, who pay for nuclear power, and who will be forced to shoulder costs of decommissioning nuclear plants stranded by sea level rise.

On April 30th, Miami Dade's environmental agency made a presentation of imagery created in cooperation with other government agencies. The event was not reported by The Miami Herald. These images are not a tree-hugger, doom sayer's fervid imagination. They were built by Miami-Dade County planners and engineers using the latest data and software to overlay precise elevations with sea-level rise. (Here is the county website on climate change, well worth a visit.)

The science committee of the Miami-Dade Climate Change Advisory Task Force has reached several conclusions. These have been shared with the world's top climate change scientists. Here is what the science committee reports: "What is happening in the Arctic and Greenland, (there will be) a likely sea level rise of at least 1.5 feet in the coming 50 years and a total of at least 3-5 feet by the end of the century, possibly significantly more. Spring high tides would be at +7 to +9 feet. This does not take into account the possibility of a catastrophically rapid melt of land-bound ice from Greenland, and it makes no assumptions about Antarctica." (please click 'read more')

50 years is clearly within the serviceable lifetime of the two, new planned nuclear reactors at Turkey Point. So why hasn't sea level rise been incorporated early and often in discussions whether or not to permit them? What you are looking at, is a new graphic of what one foot of sea level rise will do to South Dade. What one foot in rise means is that these areas will be wet, most of the time. The little red square is Turkey Point. If you think this is something to be concerned about, wait until you see what two and four foot rise looks like. No longer are lands just wet: they are under water.

So how does FPL intend to address the threats to its facilities from sea level rise and the costs that will become apparent with each inch rise in sea level: emergency access? Who will pay to elevate all the roadways leading to the plant, the issue of the rate base model: ie. what happens to FPL's customer base? How long does de-commissioning a nuclear facility take and shouldn't FPL be including the timeline and costs of closing the plants be factored into the equation? Surely FPL can afford economists to paint that picture for permitting agencies and ratepayers.

These images need to be interpreted through common sense. Data shows not only will Turkey Point be isolated and likely unserviceable without major public infrastructure upgrades, but the entire rate base-- ie. future consumers-- will be severely disrupted by sea level rise.

The Governor and Cabinet should take a very close look at this imagery, even if the Miami-Dade County Commission won't because it is lead by an unreformable majority. Let's hope the Obama White House and the NRC also a hard look at the costs of both maintaining and decommissioning nuclear facilities that are surrounded by low-lying land at sea level.

Let the record show that at least a few people took the time to understand what the Idiocracy has done to the state of Florida. I am not categorically against nuclear power. But I am categorically against new nuclear power inside the time horizon and inside the footprint of anticipated sea level rise from global warming.

"Over-Promised Means You Lied" Said County Commissioner Carlos Gimenez. By Geniusofdespair

Great quote! I found it in the Matt Haggman, Miami Herald story which says that Carlos Gimenez is going to launch a petition drive so we can re-vote the 1/2 penny transit tax since it is not being used as promised. See yesterday's Eye column. I actually voted against the tax because I didn't trust them, but for all the rest of you, you might have a second chance. If you can't get them out of office, starve the beast. Get procurement out of their hands while you are at it Carlos.

Daily flu thermometer ... by gimleteye

Helen Branswell, the top medical reporter on flu, changed her Twitter address to here. I have been using the increase in her followers to measure public interest in the new influenza; partly tongue in cheek in mask, but also in part to draw attention to the medical journalist from Canada who consistently reports out on the important questions related to influenza. The Helen Branswell Twitter Meter is up 57 percent from my first flu blog. Here is the latest from Branswell.

A can of worms: Lehman Brothers and Jeb Bush ... why don't we know the facts? by gimleteye

According to the Miami Herald, Florida counties testified in Congress; asking that federal "stimulus" money be used to patch up investment accounts badly damaged by investments in toxic assets sold by Lehman Brothers. "The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings has pinched Florida, forcing Sarasota County to slice library and transit budgets and forgo new parks and a fire station, the county's comptroller Tuesday told a House committee looking at providing federal assistance to similarly strapped state and local governments."

How's this for an idea for Congress: I want federal stimulus money to patch up unrealized losses in my personal account for blue chip American companies, rated AAA, like GE and Berkshire Hathaway whose corporate executives played bets on derivatives that were impossible to understand through 10K's and other required reports to the SEC?

OK. Here's a more realistic request: a detailed list of investments by the State of Florida through Lehman before it disappeared down a black hole of its own making. Disclose a full inventory, details and covenants of bonds purchased through Lehman and other dealers so the public, including investors who are Republican, can know; what is in the Lehman trash compared to other bonds owned by the State? What percentage of bond business did Lehman get from the State Administration Board while it was run by a Bush insider? What was the rate of increase in bonds sold to the state by Lehman, month to month, as a percentage of total during the time that Jeb Bush was governor and, then, afterwards when he was a paid consultant to Lehman Brothers? What did Jeb Bush do when he was a consultant to Lehman Brothers?

These are fair questions that have either not been asked or published by the mainstream press. They are bound to irritate the former Governor, but since he has tapped himself to help revive his party based on conservative values; let's hear more about those values as they were expressed through solid gold investments in Lehman Brothers that are not worth the paper they are printed on.

Posted on Wed, May. 06, 2009
Local governments that suffered Lehman losses ask Congress for help

BY LESLEY CLARK
lclark@MiamiHerald.com

The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings has pinched Florida, forcing Sarasota County to slice library and transit budgets and forgo new parks and a fire station, the county's comptroller Tuesday told a House committee looking at providing federal assistance to similarly strapped state and local governments.

Karen Rushing told the House Financial Services Committee that Florida held over $300 million in Lehman investments when the company fell into bankruptcy last fall; Sarasota was holding about $40 million. An economic analysis, she said, estimates that for every $10 million in losses, the local economy lost 95 jobs.

She and several other local government officials from across the country testified in support of a House bill that would require the Treasury Department to cover the losses with money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the $700 billion federal bailout for troubled institutions.

''The decision to treat Lehman Brothers financial situation differently than other failing financial institutions resulted in devastating consequences on state and local governments,'' Rushing said.

She said the county has taken an ''unrealized loss'' in its accounting books, but has yet to sell the Lehman bonds.

''We're holding them now, trying to determine what to do next,'' she said of the bonds that represented less than 5 percent of the county's investment pool.

Rep. Anna Eshoo, D-Calif., a co-sponsor of the legislation requiring Treasury to purchase government-owned Lehman assets, said in prepared testimony that no TARP dollars have been spent to assist local governments, though governments in California, Florida, Colorado, Michigan, Missouri and Arizona have been affected.

''It's been said that some banks are too big to fail,'' she said. ``It can also be said that counties, school districts and cities are too small to be noticed.

''To date,'' she said, ``Lehman Brothers is the only financial institution that was allowed to collapse and our schools, public safety, and social services will suffer if we don't return these dollars back to our local governments.''

Not every lawmaker was sympathetic. ''You guys were chasing yield,'' Rep. John Campbell, R-Calif., said after noting that the governments could have invested in safer ways. ``There's nothing wrong with that, but with that comes risk.''

And he argued that the TARP bailout was aimed at stemming systemic failure, preventing the banks from failing.



© 2009 Miami Herald Media Company. All Rights Reserved.
http://www.miamiherald.com

TheResults of the Transit Tax Vote Today. By Geniusofdespair

Here are the County Commission voting results regarding putting the transit tax half penny tax back on the ballot.

Joe Martinez, as I guessed, seconded Gimenez's resolution. Barreiro and Souto voted with them to put it on the ballot. Pepe Diaz and Rebeca Sosa were absent. It lost by 7 to 4. Will there be a petition drive next???

Finding new work for bulldozers: destroying houses that should never have been zoned or permitted ... by gimleteye

Thanks to the Wall Street Journal for pointing out this video, in "Banks wreck new houses". The lede for the story: "A Texas bank is about done demolishing 16 new and partially built houses acquired in Southern California through foreclosure, figuring it was better to knock them down than to try selling them in the depressed housing market."

Of course, we have many of our own versions of this story scattered throughout Miami Dade. How many homes did Miami Dade County Commissioners permit to be built, through zoning changes demanded by land speculators, the LBA and high-paid land use lawyers, in farmland and Everglades wetlands that could similarly be torn down for lack of market? Thousands. Why do we continue listening to the destroyers?

Gonzalo Sanabria is now OFFICIALLY OUT! By Geniusofdespair

My God! Those County Commissioners have no shame! Really. It is just puke inducing. They did try to do an end-run a couple of minutes ago, at the County Commission Meeting, trying to do a re-vote on the MDX Board vote. It was sponsored by the Vile Natacha Seijas: MDX do-over vote. Angry words were spewed towards Sorenson by Commissioner Pepe Diaz. She mentioned some of the shenanigans going on which he took great offense to. Well, I reported on it May 4th, so I heard about the shenanigans too. The vote: Gimenez voted no on the re-vote (even though he originally voted for Gonzalo Sanabria) which killed the measure. The offending, sticking up for counting Pepe Diaz's late vote: Sally Heyman, Joe Martinez, Pepe Diaz, Vile Natacha Seijas, Bruno Barreiro. Against: Gimenez, Sorenson, Edmonson, Rolle, Moss, Jordan, Souto. Sosa is absent.

So Gonzalo Sanabria DID NOT GET BACK ON THE MDX BOARD. Al Maloof is in. Too bad Armando Gutierrez. It didn't work. This is baby stuff. "Do over" is what a kid wants.

Deutsche Bank Dumping Foreclosed Homes In Miami. By Geniusofdespair

Deutsche Bank has sold a slew of foreclosed homes in the North section Miami-Dade County for bargain basement prices. Maybe what is happening is that this bank is finally recognizing derivative losses to its balance sheet, and writing off the underlying mortgages.

1. 425 NE 114 Street which sold for $325,000 in 4/2006, sold recently for $100,000. The assessed value in ‘08 was $295,053. EQUITY LOSS: $225,000
2. 345 NW 118 Street which sold for $499,500 in 9/2006, sold recently for $174,000. The assessed value in ‘08 was $225,250. EQUITY LOSS: $325,500
3. 661 NE 52 Terrace which sold for $759,000 in 5/2005, sold recently for $350,000. The assessed value in ‘08 was $510,373. EQUITY LOSS: $409,000
4. 224 NW 64 Street which sold for $339,000 in 5/2006, sold recently for $135,000. The assessed value in ‘08 was $337,252. EQUITY LOSS: $204,000
5. 11940 NW 16th Avenue which sold for $230,000 in 7/2006, sold recently for $64,900. The assessed value in ‘08 was $137,144. EQUITY LOSS: $165,100
6. 11930 N. Bayshore Drive (I could only find a comp. in the same line, 2 floors below that sold for $190,000 in 4/2007) sold recently for $56,000. The assessed value in ‘08 was $178,130. EQUITY LOSS (estimate): $134,000
7. 780 NE 69 St. which sold for $460,000 in 12/2005, sold recently for $155,000. The assessed value in ‘08 was $244,000. EQUITY LOSS: $305,000

How long will it take for consumers, who are badly shaken by job losses around the country, to come back into the South Florida real estate markets? At the height of the boom, as much as 70 percent of new housing construction was being purchased by flippers and speculators. I strongly doubt that this segment of the market is coming back, at all, in our lifetimes. So: two conclusions. Not only do we have a supply of housing inventory that far, far exceeds demand (Parkland, Krome Gold, anyone?), we also have sharply falling government revenues.


If banks are unloading mortgages at a fraction of a dollar, how long will it be before tax assessments are geared downward? If we look at only these 7 properties and compare the combined assessed value of $1,927,202 to the combined actual value (the selling price) of $1,034,900. That is about a 46% drop in taxable equity from 2008 assessments.

Multiply this effect by millions of homeowners and you can see that the "green shoots" in the economy probably mean that once the housing markets find a bottom, we will be bouncing there for years while taxes go up and inflation increases. It is not a pretty picture, but before blaming Obama; remember how we got here and who profited from this misery.

Marco Rubio, for US Senate? ... by gimleteye

With former state House Speaker and Miamian Marco Rubio to announce his candidacy this morning, battle lines to be the next US Senator from Florida are being drawn. Within the Florida Republican Party. It is a interesting conflict, pitting the strain of extremist leadership-- embodied by former Gov. Jeb Bush-- against moderate Gov. Charlie Crist. Rubio is a stand-in for Bush and the dilemma of re-organizing the Republican base at a time when the Republican Party carries the legacy of the economic bust. Crist has been more in tune with state-wide demographics. The general population is far more moderate and growing in numerical advantage compared to the radical right. But that is for the general election. Whether being moderate helps Crist, who has yet to announce, or Rubio--who is set to announce this morning--in the Republican primary is the question of the hour.

Type the rest of the post here

Connecting the dots: on the Miami Herald's tepid coverage of economic collapse and its political origins in Miami ... by gimleteye

Buried in the Editor's Note in Business Monday in The Miami Herald, "When bubbles burst": the editor reports of a business journalism conference in Denver and an underlying theme: "whether business journalists should have done more to warn the public of the dangers of subprime lending, securitized mortgages and toxic assets on bank balance sheets..." (please click, 'read more')

Well, yes. My first blog post here was on November 11, 2006. Since the early 1990's in Miami, I had been part of the small group of civic activists and environmentalists trying to nudge public policy in another direction from the rampant suburban sprawl destroying the quality of life and natural resources of South Florida, fighting against the nonsense of special interests that low cost, low density housing in farmland was "what the market wanted".

The Dow Jones was as 12,000 on its way to 14,000. The exuberance of the housing boom in Miami was in full swing. The Miami Herald was the biggest cheerleader of the housing bubble-- with newsprint pompoms and high kicks-- suppressing critical stories (like the overdevelopment in farmland in South Dade) and dissent. I couldn't be quiet about the tsunami of overdevelopment and the failure of local leadership, including the newspaper's, and started writing Eyeonmiami with G.O.D. for our loyal audience that includes, naturally, the embattled status quo we rail against.

In that first post, I wrote: "Where did you ever read about the Herald dealing with a building moratorium ... how there's no difference between a developer and a big farmer any more. How about puff pieces on public officials or govt appointees that never even mention their land holdings out by Krome Avenue and the Everglades. How every time there's an effort to manage growth for citizens who already live here, the overwhelming flood of lobbyists representing land speculators drowns city and county hall. Or taking commissioners to task for belittling citizens who have the guts to take a day to testify against decisions they know will go against them, their communities, and common sense! Hard hitting stories? Not when the sacred cow of advertising revenues in the real estate section are on the line!"

So perhaps three and a half years later, the Herald is struggling to find a footing its readers can believe in. Yesterday's Business Section note acknowledges: "Perhaps the fault was in not taking the next step--following the trends upstream," said Jane Bryant Quinn... Connecting the dots might have led to more scrutiny of Wall Street, big banks and regulators."

Might?

Consider this: how the Herald's award-winning series, "Borrowers Betrayed", might have won a Pulitzer if Herald editors had supported connecting the dots. But Herald editors betrayed the paper's readers by keeping "Borrowers Betrayed" a story about abuses by criminals working in the mortgage industry afflicting poor people and failed to provide the support for the investigative team to chase up the political food chain to the highest offices in Florida. It is not too late.

Everywhere, the story how the Republican Party has lost its way is on the front pages. The Miami Herald has had this story right in front of its eyes, but has never reported the Miami-based links of big campaign contributors from the development industry who control local and state legislatures and propelled the Bush political dynasty in Florida and nationally. The seeds of "the ownership society" began right here, in Miami, in the mid-1990's, as point men like Al Hoffman and Al Cardenas blazed the trail for Jeb Bush to the Governor's Mansion.

By avoiding ruffling feathers of the politically influential, who profited mightily from suburban sprawl, The Herald missed out on reporting the story of influence peddling in service of a narrow political spectrum-- the radical Republican right-- that unfolded into the biggest economic collapse since the 1920's.

Last week's news: how top Republicans, including former Gov. Bush, are going to "rebrand" the party. But even today, the Herald appears blind to the story of the struggle within the Republican party: the damaging battle between current and former legislators connected to former Gov. Jeb Bush and moderate Gov. Charlie Crist.

This story has national "legs", and central to the fiasco of the legislative session and the upcoming US Senate and governor's race: yet it is nowhere to be seen in the Herald.

The Editor's Note ends: "What seems clear is there is plenty of blame to spread around as well as an abundance of cautionary lessons that should be heeded when the next bubble soars." In my opinion, it is not too late for the Herald to go back and connect all the dots. In doing so, it might even provide customers a reason to keep reading the newspaper.


< Go To Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor Main Page
The thinkers who predicted early on many aspects of this financial crisis

Nouriel Roubini | May 1, 2009
Time magazine has kindly included me in its annual list of The 100 Most Influential People in the World. I do not know if I deserve to be in such a list as there are so many others who influence so much of our world. But I certainly recognize that there were a small but significant number of economists, thinkers and analysts who – early on – predicted many of the risks and vulnerabilities that eventually led to this crisis. In many ways I simply connected the dot in these different strands of thinking and warnings.

Among a few others Robert Shiller was one of the earliest ones to study in detail and warn about a housing bubble; Kenneth Rogoff and a few other economists warned early on about the unsustainability of the US current account deficits and of the global imbalances; Raghu Rajan presented one of the earliest and sharpest analyses of the agency problems and incentive distortions deriving from compensation schemes in financial institutions; Nassim Taleb and a few other finance scholars stressed the risk of fat tail extreme events in financial markets; Paul Krugman – who received his Nobel for his trade contributions – was the father of currency and financial crisis theories in international macro as at least three generations of currency crisis models were developed from his seminal work; Stephen Roach, David Rosenberg and a few other financial sector analysts warned about the shopped-out, saving-less, bubble-addict and debt-burdened US consumer ; Niall Ferguson provided vivid comparisons between historical episodes of financial crises and current vulnerabilities; Hyun Shin and other scholars in academia provided early modeling of illiquidity and of the perverse effects of leverage during asset bubbles; William White and his colleagues at the BIS were among the first – following the scholarship of Hyman Minsky – to analyze how the “Great Moderation” may paradoxically lead to “Financial Instability”, asset and credit bubbles and financial crises; Gillian Tett and a few other journalists at the Financial Times provided early clear explanations of the arcane complexity of credit derivatives and structured finance and of the systemic risks deriving from these new exotic financial instruments; dozen of serious and deep thinking scholars in academia modeled analytically – and tested empirically - the various aspects of systemic financial crises and the interactions between currency crises, systemic banking crises, systemic corporate and household debt crises and sovereign debt crises.

Given the important work done by these and other scholars and thinkers it was certainly easier for me to connect the analytically and empirical dots and warn early on in the middle of 2006 about the incoming economic and financial tsunami. It is important to recognize that a small but significant number of thinkers were willing to think outside the box and were aware of many risks and vulnerabilities. These thinkers - like myself - were not Dr. Dooms; they were rather Dr. Realists, analytically rigorous and intellectually honest and willing to engage in critical thinking rather than follow the herd of the easy consensus. And even among the policy makers there was a difference in views. Alan Greenspan, Don Kohn and Bernanke repeated the mantra that it is impossible to prick asset bubbles and that monetary policy should do nothing when a bubble was rising and then, asymmetrically, aggressively ease when the bubble was bursting to avoid the collateral damage to the real economy. Instead thinkers at the BIS and policy makers such as Tim Geithner, Jean Claude Trichet and Mervyn King had a more nuanced approach on how monetary and credit policy could be used to contain such bubbles. Tim Geithner devoted his first five speeches as President of the New York Fed to the issue of systemic risk in financial markets; he also warned about the unsustainability of the US twin deficits at the time when Bernanke was blaming it all on the global savings glut caused by China and other surplus countries.

One may also partially agree or disagree with the specific policy actions undertaken by policy makers in managing and resolving this economic and financial crisis. And I do disagree on some specific policy actions, among other on how the banking crisis is being handled. But one should also recognize that the current administration – the President, Geithner, Summers and the rest of the economic team – did a lot to contain and resolve the worst economic and financial crisis since the Great Depression, a crisis that it had inherited from the previous administration. In the first 30 days (not 100) of this administration three major policy actions were undertaken: a $800 billion dollar fiscal stimulus program that is necessary to stimulate aggregate demand; a housing plan that addresses more aggressively the need to slow down defaults and foreclosures; and bank stress tests and a bad assets resolution plan whose initial launch was botched because of the lack of specific details but that was much more favorably received by the markets once its details became clearer. And even monetary policy has become more creative via a zero interest rate policy, quantitative/credit easing and a range of unconventional policy actions aimed at thawing frozen money markets and credit markets. The recent weeks’ improvement in markets and investors’ risk sentiment is partially related to the development of these monetary, fiscal, credit and banking resolution plans.

Given the justifiable rush of getting these policy actions implemented in short order (the three major ones were announced in 30 days) many details, flaws and shortcomings remain. Fiscal policy stimulus should have been more front-loaded in 2009 and ineffective tax cuts (out of last year’s one of $100 billion only 30% was spent and the rest saved) should have been avoided; the foreclosure avoidance plan may require principal value reduction of mortgages as millions of households are underwater rather than mortgage debt payments relief alone; the Geithner plan for dealing with toxic assets has some design flaws that can be fixed and while it can be used to deal with the toxic assets of solvent banks it cannot resolve the capital problems of near insolvent banks. But one should recognize that US policy authorities – as well as the authorities of many other countries looked into the abyss of the risk of a near depression - given the free fall in global economic activity in the last two quarters – and decided to start using most of the weapons in their arsenals – bazookas, missiles, rockets, artillery, etc – in a financial policy equivalent of a Powell doctrine of overwhelming force in order to avoid a near depression. This is why now the risks of an L-shaped near depression – like the one that hit Japan after the bursting of its real estate and equity bubble – have been reduced.

We are still in a severe and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that – unlike the forecast of the current consensus economists – will not be over in Q3 but will last until the beginning of 2010. So there may be finally light at the end of the tunnel but later rather than sooner, in 2010 rather than in the second half of 2009. There are still significant downside risks and while optimists speak about green shoots there are still plenty of yellow weeds; and while second derivatives are becoming positive especially in the US but, partially, also in other countries, they are not positive enough yet to suggest that the recession will bottom out in Q3 – as predicted by the consensus – as opposed to some time in 2010. The toxic mess and damage caused by this leverage-driven financial crisis and economic recession – including a brutal shedding of employment that shows no sign of letting up – will take much longer to truly heal the financial markets, the financial institutions and the real economy.

More on St. Stephen's Church disaster in Coconut Grove ... by gimleteye

News from the site of the destruction of Miami's St. Stephen's Historic 1912 Church Building and Cloisters. This morning at 7AM, a handful of activists watched the destruction of St. Stephen's Church. An observer requesting anonymity said, "The way they (The Related Companies) came in has all the earmarks of a mean developer. They didn't do any of the green reclamation they said they were going to do. They came in with heavy equipment and got out before anyone could stop them."

Miami historian and preservationist Arva Moore Parks said:
"We had a meeting scheduled for last Thursday with the builders (that never happened). On Saturday, after hours, they started demolition. We were able to halt the demolition. Yesterday (Sunday) at 5:45 PM we finally had our meeting. We asked for a week to sit with the architects. We pleaded with them not to damage the church. Last night at 11PM, they said no deal. This morning at 7 AM they brought in sledge hammers to make sure there would be no chance for us to intervene. It took them fifteen minutes to knock down the 1912 cross at the top of the church. Then the historic bell came down. They destroyed all the good features of the facade. While it is true they notified neighbors and complied with city permit requirements, I've reviewed what was published and it is deeply disturbing. They never specifically said that they were going to destroy this landmark church where so much of Miami's history gathered to worship. I've been in this business for 40 years. I've never seen anything like this. I'm very sad."

MDX: Do Over? I don't think so. by Geniusofdespair

The County Commission's vote for members of the MDX Board left Gonzalo Sanabria out in the cold and Al Maloof took the spot by one vote. Sources tell me that Armando Gutierrez wanted Pepe Diaz, who was absent, to vote after the fact for Gonzalo to create a tie. I guess this would have then caused a re-vote with plenty of time to try to persuade Maloof supporters to change their vote, if that is what was planned.

I don't think this is going to come up Tuesday at the County Commission Meeting. It seems as though Gonzalo Sanabria's political capital is spent if he couldn't even make this Board appointment. Maritiza Gutierrez will have to chair the Board with Maloof.

It is interesting to note who did not vote for Maloof:

Barreiro, Martinez and Seijas. Gimenez and Heyman: What were you thinking? I guess Heyman had to vote for Gonzalo, he was her appointment to the Planning Advisory Board. This is not to say Maloof is a bargain. I put his lobbyist list after Robert Holland's below.

Some of you out there should run for these Boards. I shudder when I look at the choices, as many seem conflicted at best. However, if a good candidate was there the County Commissioners wouldn't put them on the Board. We are in this crappy loop where all the Boards are appointed by the County Commissioners so we can never get out of having a pile of lobbyists on our Boards (and lobbyist's spouses). Look at who Robert Holland, also on the MDX Board, Lobbies for (Maloof's list is below Holland's list):

FOUNTAINBLEAU LAKES, LLC 4/3/2009
NONE Open
BCC ENGINEERING , INC. 3/13/2009
ENGINEERING ISSUES Open
RAILWORKS CORPORATION 2/19/2009
NORTH TERMINAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM AUTOMATED PEOPLE MOVER SYSTEM-WAGE DETERMINATION Open
AMERICAN EARTH MOVERS INC 1/22/2009
CSBE CONTRACT Open
LARO SERVICE SYSTEMS INC 6/16/2008
CORPORAE ISSUES Open
SCHEIDT & BACHMANN USA, INC 4/16/2008
AUTOMATED FARE COLLECTION SYSTEM Open
PURYEAR, INC 12/18/2007
NONE Open
BEST USED TRUCKS OF MIAMI, INC 10/16/2007
NONE Open
WASTE SERVICES INC 10/16/2007
COUNTY CURBSIDE RECYCLING PROGRAM Open
MIDTOWN TOWING OF MIAMI 7/17/2007
NONE Open
ALL DAY RENT A CAR CORP 10/19/2006
RENTAL CAR FACILITY SPACE ALLOCATION Open
FAMILY AUTO RENT 10/19/2006
RENTAL CAR FACILITY SPACE ALLOCATION Open
GLOBAL RAC 10/19/2006
RENTAL CAR FACILITY SPACE ALLOCATION Open
SIBONEY AUTO RENTALS INC 10/19/2006
RENTAL CAR FACILITY SPACE ALLOCATION Open
CORNERSTONE GROUP 6/22/2006
DRI AMENDMENT Withdrawn
ODEBRECHT CONSTRUCTION INC 4/20/2006
NONE Open

MALOOF:

H&CR REALTY, LLC 2/9/2009
NONE Open
FABER COE & GREGG 8/27/2008
MARKETING & RETAIL REVENUE ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM Open
TWIN VISION 7/25/2008
NONE Open
BANKERS FINANCIAL 5/30/2008
NONE Open
EMPLOYMENT RESOURCES, INC 2/22/2008
DBE, TEAMING AND OTHER MATTERS Open
EYE FLY MIAMI (MIA) LLC 2/13/2008
ADVERTISING CONTRACTS Open
ACS STATE AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, INC. 12/13/2007
RFP 8181-2/22 Open
SMI SECURITY MANAGEMENT 11/5/2007
NONE Open
CLEVER DEVICES INC 10/17/2007
INFORMATION & DATA TRACKING SYSTEMS Withdrawn
TOD ADVISORS LLC 9/12/2007
COMMUNITY & TRANSIT DEVELOPMENT Open
ALL CARE RESIDENTIAL TREATMENT PROGRAMS 5/29/2007
COMMUNITY & SOCIAL SERVICES PROGRAMS Open
GOVERNMENT CONSULTING LLC 5/18/2007
PUBLIC POLICY & SERVICES PLANNING Open
LEO A DALY- ARCHITECTS ENGINEERS 2/27/2007
AIRPORT & SEAPORT ENGINEERING Open
THE HASKELL COMPANY 1/9/2007
SEAPORT, ENGINEERING, HOMELAND SECURITY Open
JAMAICA TOURIST BOARD 8/1/2006
NONE Open
OPTIMA BUS CORPORATION 4/25/2006
RFP 407 AND ALL BUS PROCUREMENTS FOR MIAMI-DADE Open
RED FLEX TRAFFIC SYSTEMS 3/20/2006
TRAFFIC SAFETY, TECHNOLOGY, PUBLIC POLICY, LEGISLATION Open
DOZIER & DOZIER CONSTRUCTION 11/18/2005
NONE Withdrawn
CAFUSA INC 11/3/2005
RAIL CAR TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS Withdrawn
SUNSHINE 2000 CONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT, INC 10/13/2005
NONE Open
FABER MIA LLC 9/21/2005
RETAIL/POINT OF SALE PROGRAMS & OPERATIONS Open
GENOVESE, JOBLOVE & BATTISTA PA 9/1/2005
PROCUREMENT, BIDS, CONTRACTS Open
FORUM BENEFITS OF AMERICA 8/16/2005
EMPLOYEE BENEFITS, HEALTHCARE, DENTAL, PHARMACY Open
GOVERNMENT & BUSINESS CONSULTANTS 8/16/2005
PROCUREMENT, BIDS, PROPOSALS , NEGOTIATIONS Open
RISK MANAGEMENT SAFETY CONSULTANTS 8/16/2005
NONE Open
OPTIMA BUS CORPORATION 8/11/2005
NONE Open
GJB CONSULTING LLC 5/4/2005
PROCUREMENT, BIDS, RFP'S, PROJECT TEAM ASSEMBLY Open
ROSS & BARUZZINI ENGINEERS 12/1/2004
TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES/ ACCESS-CONTROL SYSTEMS Open
NESTOR TRAFFIC SYSTEMS INC 9/15/2004
TRAFFIC / TRANSPORTATION / PUBLIC SAFETY Withdrawn
CENTURIAN 7/16/2004
CUSTOMER SERVICE AUTOMATED INFORMATION RESPONSE Open
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS 1/22/2004
NONE Open
PENN CORP 9/10/2003

GJB CONSULTING LLC 7/1/2003
Open
LAWSON & LAWSON INDUSTRIES 4/14/2003
PENSKE TRANSPORTATION/VEHICLE MAINTENANCE Open

Daily flu thermometer ... by gimleteye

The Helen Branswell twitter meter is slowing, only up 51%; a measure of increase of people following Branswell on Twitter . Branswell is the leading science journalist on flu. Over the weekend she had an astounding tweet: that the home belonging to the lead influenza official at the CDC had been struck and burned by lighting. Today we have news of confirmed cases in M-D schools. In a front page story, the New York Times: "The best way to track the spread of swine flu across the United States in the coming weeks may be to imagine it riding a dollar bill. The routes taken by millions of them are at the core of a computer model at Northwestern University that is predicting the epidemic’s future. Reassuringly, it foresees only about 2,000 cases by the end of this month, mostly in New York, Los Angeles, Miami and Houston."

The point of quarantine efforts are to keep the number of cases down: the higher volume of transmissions, the more opportunity for the flu gene to mutate. The concern is that a new flu virus that is easily transmittable from human to human, albeit more like an ordinary flu in its effects, will meet up and recombine with the really nasty virus that is moving in some bird populations and really harmful when people are infected. Reducing the chance for that to occur is an excellent and worthy public health goal. No one knows if it is within our means to be successful, but whatever the costs, they are a lot cheaper than a bad flu pandemic.

Do you have the flu? Let us know, what's going on in your flu world. (click, 'read more')

Published: 2009-05-04
Flu movement between species raises concerns
More mutations of the virus possible, meaning it may become more virulent

By ALLISON JONES and HELEN BRANSWELL The Canadian Press


The discovery of the new swine flu in pigs on an Alberta farm raises a spectre that worries influenza experts: the possibility of the virus moving back and forth between humans and pigs, giving it more chances to mutate along the way.

About 220 pigs in a herd of 2,200 began showing signs of the flu April 24, Canadian officials revealed over the weekend. A farmhand who travelled to Mexico and fell ill upon his return is believed to have infected the pigs with the H1N1 influenza virus.

While the development did not come as a surprise to the World Health Organization or other experts, they expressed concern.

"We expected that at some point since this virus has swine virus elements that we would find possibly the virus in swine pigs in the region where the virus is circulating," Dr. Peter Ben Embarek, a WHO food safety scientist, said Sunday from Geneva.

Measures should be taken to prevent further human exposure to sick animals because of a risk people around the pigs could become infected, Embarek said.

"It has happened in the past with classical swine influenza," he said.

Dr. Ruben Donis, head of the molecular genetics branch of the influenza division at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, said the movement of a virus from one species to another creates more opportunities for mutations.

While it isn’t a given that any changes in the virus would mean it becomes more virulent — causes more severe disease — that cannot be ruled out, he said.

"It’s possible," Donis said in an interview from Atlanta. "We have to consider all options."

Donis was especially concerned about the virus getting seeded in pig populations on small farms that don’t have the same level of biosecurity as larger operations.

Another worker on the Alberta farm subsequently fell ill, but it’s not yet known if that person caught the swine flu. The herd in central Alberta has been quarantined, and all of the pigs are recovering or have recovered. The farm worker has also recovered.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s health secretary declared the swine flu outbreak to be declining in his country, though health officials warned against complacency in combatting the spread of the disease.

In Egypt police and armoured cars charged into a crowd of a 1,000 irate pig farmers armed with stones and bottles Sunday.

Twelve people were injured as residents of a Cairo slum resisted government efforts to slaughter the nation’s pigs to guard against swine flu.

Dr. Christopher Olsen, a swine flu expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said having this H1N1 influenza A virus go back into swine creates opportunities for it to pick up genetic mutations or swap genes with other flu viruses. Canada’s swine flu caseload swelled Sunday to 101 after health officials in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba Quebec, Ontario and Nova Scotia reported new confirmed cases. Worldwide the WHO confirmed 787 cases in 17 countries.

But even as the tally of people infected with swine flu continued to rise Sunday — at least six other countries reported new cases — Mexico’s health secretary said the swine flu epidemic in his country "is now in its declining phase."

Jose Angel Cordova said data suggest the epidemic peaked sometime between April 23 and April 28, and that drastic measures — closing the nation’s schools, shuttering most of its businesses and banning mass public gatherings — apparently have helped curb the flu’s spread.

But Gregory Hartl, the WHO spokesman for epidemic and pandemic diseases, cautioned against any premature declarations.

"That might be certainly what the current epidemiology is showing," he said from Geneva in response to Cordova’s comments.

"I also would like to remind people that in 1918 the Spanish flu showed a surge in the spring and then disappeared in the summer months, only to return in the autumn of 1918 with a vengeance."

’In 1918 the Spanish flu showed a surge in the spring and then disappeared in the summer months, only to return in the autumn of 1918 with a vengeance.’

GREGORY HARTLWHO spokesman
CLOSE WINDOW
© 2008 The Halifax Herald Limited

Anyone Need a Plumber? By Geniusofdespair

Hit to enlarge image.

Breaking news! Police call 'backup' to prevent bulldozers destroying Miami's St. Stephen 1912 church on Sunday ... by gimleteye

Reported in today's Herald local section, "Planned demolition of church protested", a church official "told a reporter no demolition would occur over the weekend." Nevertheless, contradicting the rector of St. Stephen's school, yesterday afternoon a demolition crew began knocking holes in the 1912 Mission-style chapel "on the advice of attorneys". The demolition crew suspended operations after outraged protesters appeared. This morning, the demolition crew was back at work. Protesters called the police, who have called "for backup". TV crews are on the way. This "terrible situation", in the words of historian Arva Moore Parks, is getting worse this morning. Perhaps the lesson: we can't save anything in Miami-Dade. What a terrible way for a church to behave on Sunday or any other day of the week.

Who Writes These Letters to the Editors? By Geniusofdespair

I often wonder what motivates people to write letters to the editor so I often look them up. I read a letter by Jefferson P. Knight in yesterday’s Miami Herald. He is on the Advisory Council of the Republican National Lawyers Association. He was the Chair of the Florida Chapter of the Republican National Lawyers Association 2004-2006 and he gave $500 to the Republican Party of Miami Dade County in 2008. So I assume he is a Republican. Is it relevant? No, but it does help me understand where he is coming from like he trying to project where Clean Water Action is coming from.

His letter takes Clean Water Action to task regarding their stance on salt-water intrusion if there is expansion at Turkey Point (mostly from digging rock pits to get fill to build the plant to the proper elevation). The 2 new reactors are to be built in a low elevation area that I believe has be be raised 15 feet. Jefferson says that the group: Clean Water Action, is actually against nuclear power, insinuating they are disingenuous to focus on the salt water intrusion issue instead of the broader issue.

My reply to Mr. Knight: So what if the group is against nuclear power and would rather promote renewal sources of energy? They can also zero in on specific problems at this particular site. And, Corporate Lawyer Knight: You might think about living near 4 Reactors....Palmetto Bay is a hop skip and a jump to them! The Miami Herald reported that "Tritium, has been detected at 10 to 30 times expected background levels in at least one well a mile west of Turkey Point." Open your mind to all the negatives, as well at the positive, before you decide you want two NEW reactors in your backyard - the most at any one site in the United States. I thank Clean Water for educating me as the licensing process continue. You also might read this if you have children:

Miami, Florida - A South Florida Baby Teeth and Cancer Case Study, that was officially released today, April 9th 2003, finds that infants and children are especially vulnerable to cancer caused by federally-permitted radiation releases from nuclear reactors, such as the Turkey Point and St. Lucie nuclear power plants, located in southeast Florida.

The five-year baby teeth study, also known as the "Tooth Fairy Project," found a 37% rise in the average levels of radioactive Strontium-90 (Sr-90) in southeast Florida baby teeth from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. When compared with baby teeth collected from 18 Florida counties, the highest levels of Sr-90 were found in the six southeast Florida counties closest to the Turkey Point and St. Lucie nuclear reactors: Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River.

The current rise of radiation levels in baby teeth in Florida and in the U.S. as a whole reverses a long-term downward trend in Sr-90 levels since the 1960s, after President Kennedy banned aboveground testing of nuclear weapons 1963, due to concerns about increasing childhood cancer and leukemia rates from fallout.

Radioactive Sr-90 is a known carcinogen, which is only produced by fission reactions in nuclear weapons or reactors. It enters the body along with chemically similar calcium, and is stored in bone and teeth, where it can be measured years later using well-established laboratory techniques.

Significantly, the study documented that the average levels of Sr-90 found in the teeth of children diagnosed with cancer were nearly twice as high as those found in the teeth of children without cancer.

Dr. Ernest Sternglass, Professor Emeritus of Radiation Physics at the University of Pittsburgh Medical School and co-author of the study said that "although radioactive emissions can enter the air, soil and diet, the most significant source of Sr-90 in southeast Florida children's teeth is groundwater, the primary source of southeast Florida's public drinking supply. This is due to the area's high rainfall and shallow aquifer."

The study found the highest levels of radioactivity in samples of drinking water found within 20 miles of the Turkey Point (located south of Miami) and St. Lucie (located north of West Palm Beach) nuclear power plants, while levels of radioactivity were significantly lower in water samples further away from the reactors. The rise in Sr-90 levels in both drinking water and baby teeth parallels a 32.5% rise in cancer rates in children under 10 in the southeast Florida counties, which are closest to the nuclear power plants. This compares with a average 10.8% rise in national childhood cancer rates from the early 1980s to the late 1990s. http://www.radiation.org/spotlight/florida.html

Sunday, May 3rd: Juanita Greene Day in Miami-Dade County ... by gimleteye

By proclamation, Dennis C. Moss, chairman of the Miami Dade Board of County Commissioners, and Mayor Carlos Alvarez have resolved that tomorrow is Juanita Greene Day in Miami-Dade County. Click on the link to read more about Juanita and her great contributions to the people and place of South Florida: the Everglades.

County Commissioner Carlos Gimenez on Miami Dade County's Transit Tax Bait and Switch. By Geniusofdespair

County Commissioner Carlos Gimenez suggests, in a letter to the Editor of the Miami Herald, that we repeal the transit tax. He says:

On Nov. 5, 2002, Miami-Dade County voters approved a half-cent sales tax under The People's Transportation Plan. The PTP promised to construct eight extensions to the Metrorail system, vastly expand the bus system, improve traffic flow, and provide seniors with free public transportation.

Voters were promised in campaign literature and public meetings that tax revenue would be used solely for new projects. To ensure that the money would be used as promised, a Citizen's Independent Transportation Trust (CITT) would be created. Recognizing the importance of the plan, voters approved the surtax. They understood the need and, more importantly trusted that the dollars would be used as intended.

Unfortunately, the CITT, when created by the County Commission, lacked the power to safeguard the surtax. As a result, PTP dollars were increasingly used to fund existing operations of Miami-Dade Transit, while dollars intended for new projects diminished. Critics, myself included, have contended that the county knew from the beginning that the promises it made could not be kept.

On March 3, 2009, in an effort to finally end the charade, the majority of my colleagues approved a resolution officially allowing the use of surtax funds to operate and maintain the entire transit system. So the People's Transportation Plan, as approved by the voters, no longer exists.

Time and again Miami-Dade voters have responsibly and generously chosen to tax themselves to fund needs in our community. By failing to keep our promises on the PTP, we are ensuring that voters never again trust us to do what we say. It is imperative we regain and preserve that trust.

Given that county government broke its 2002 agreement with the voters, it is only right that they be given a chance to either support the county's recent actions or eliminate the tax altogether. On Tuesday I will be asking my colleagues to support a ballot question in the next countywide election giving voters that choice.

As former chair of the county's Regional Transportation Committee, I am painfully aware of funding shortages in the Transit department. However, in this classic case of bait and switch, the ends do not justify the means. Yes, Transit will receive more money now, but is eroding the public's confidence in county government worth that cost? I think not.

Daily flu thermometer ... by gimleteye

The Helen Branswell twitter meter is up 45%; a measure of increase of people following Branswell on Twitter from my first post on the subject. Branswell, who has been the best science journalist on flu in recent years, is quoted in an interesting St. Pete Times article, "Fast-paced flu keeps media on their toes". Yes, it really is hard to sort out what is happening. Right here in Miami, we could be in the middle of it and not know. I didn't have that much of a problem with Joe Biden's comments: anyone who flies commercial knows that airplanes days are filthy disgusting. I've picked up more colds traveling by plane than anywhere else. The airline industry's comment about great filtration systems on airplanes? Nonsense. So really, being cautious is the best course. It makes me wonder, btw, why gyms in Miami aren't asking members who are don't feel well, to stay home.

Fast-paced flu keeps media on their toes

By Eric Deggans, Times TV/Media Critic

Published Friday, May 1, 2009

Dr. Nancy Snyderman was waiting to appear on NBC's Today show to talk about swine flu Thursday when she noticed Vice President Joe Biden was about to speak on the issue.

In the time it took the network's chief medical editor to wonder why Biden was addressing a health emergency, he let loose the gaffe heard round the world — telling the morning show's audience he would advise his own family members to avoid airplanes and subways until the concern had passed.

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"The problem for all of us is there's no quick answer here," said Helen Branswell, a medical reporter for the Canadian Press news service. "And journalists are like a bacterial swarm … there's so much of us, there's no way to keep this all in perspective."

Inmates back on the street. By Guest Blogger Outofsight

Citing the weak economy as a reason for an increase in crime seems like a reasonable thing to do. However, what exactly do you know as a citizen of Florida and of Miami-Dade County about the arrests and release of inmates back on the streets? The information is posted online and I think it would raise the hair on the back of your neck! The State of Florida has a corrections site that will provide you with all sorts of information and reports.

This morning’s search of inmates released or slated to be released to Miami-Dade County for a 3 month period (ending June 29th), produced a list of 571 names: That is almost 200 a month. If you know anything about gangs and tattoos, you can look at the list of tats and know which inmates have gang associations. Trust me, you are about to gain neighbors that have been incarcerated and have not had job training while in prison. Well, actually, the career training they received is more along the lines of how to do what they did better.

We are releasing individuals out in the community in bad economic times with no job skills and without legal means of earning money. If you read the records (and you should) of these inmates, you will see a common thread: drugs, guns, robbery and grand larceny.

What does the future hold for them? What does the future hold for us, the people they will encounter on a daily basis?

As our economy tanks and as our politicians cut taxes, non-profit social services and slash police over-time for proactive prevention, can we expect a safe happy life for the residents in the community and have productive ex-offenders? Your guess is as good as mine. However, I know one thing; I would not be out at Governor Crist’s casinos betting on it!

Purple Rain: new nuclear delayed ... by gimleteye

Things will get gummed up here, too, as they have been in Tampa/St. Pete. Wastewater reuse planned for Turkey Point cooling? 95 million gallons per day of "treated" sewage evaporated straight over Homestead and South Dade and Biscayne National Park: call it purple rain.

May 01, 2009

Progress Energy nuclear plant delayed by at least 20 months

Progress Energy’s $17 billion nuclear project has been delayed by at least 20 months, the St. Petersburg utility announced Friday morning.

The utility was unable to get approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to begin construction before site and safety reviews were complete, said spokeswoman Suzanne Grant. The company does not yet know if the delay will add to the cost, she said.

The delay means the first of Progress Energy’s two new reactors will not start producing power until at least March 2018.

Despite the delay, the utility’s customers will continue to pay for the early construction costs. The utility asked state regulators to allow them to add a monthly charge to customer bills of $6.69 per 1,000 kilowatt hours starting in January.

In 2006, the state legislature passed a law allowing utilities to bill customers for the early costs of building a nuclear power plant. It remains one of the most nuclear-friendly policies in the nation. The Missouri legislature recently balked at passing a similar bill, forcing one energy company to shelve its plans for a new nuclear plant.

When the electric rate increases hit Progress Energy bills in January, cash-strapped Floridians rebelled. Legislators that voted for the bill three years ago were flooded with complaints from outraged constituents. The backlash threatened to undermine the state’s steady support for nuclear power.

Facing threats that the law might be repealed, Progress Energy took a step backward. The St. Petersburg utility in April lowered its monthly nuclear charge to $3.62 per 1,000 kilowatt hours, down from the $11.42 the utility had added in January. A small portion of the nuclear charge, 69 cents per kilowatt hour, pays for improvements to the existing Crystal River nuclear plant.

So far, Progress Energy said it has invested $389 million in the Levy County project, and that approximately $80.5 million has been collected from customers.

The Huffington Post on Turkey Point's 2 Proposed Nuke Reactors. By Geniusofdespair

Read Building a Nuke Underwater? by Sierra Clubs' Carl Pope. Here are two quotes:

“Florida Power and Light wants to build not one, but two new nuclear reactors at its existing nuclear facility at Turkey Point. Turkey Point sits at one of the lowest elevations in the state of Florida..." and:

“You couldn't have a better formula for predictable disaster -- and, of course, like any nuke, this one would be built with your money and mine, just as your money and mine (or our children's) will have to pay for the cataclysm to come.”

Herald Editorial on Scary Growth Bill in Tallahassee. By Geniusofdespair

The Miami Herald is pretty much always on target on growth management with the exception of their non-support of Florida Hometown Democracy (if this bill goes through I am sure they would change and support it.) The Editorial, Unrestricted growth no solution to state's stagnant economy OUR OPINION: Flawed bill would weaken oversight of development is well worth a read.

Let me give you an example. The Herald discusses State oversight on DRI’s (mega developments) which I find incredibly important. They say:

“We believe that DRIs should never be exempt from state oversight. Local governments too often are dazzled by the tax-revenue potential of big subdivisions to consider the negative consequences that such unsustainable growth can bring. The state can act as a more-neutral judge in these cases.”

If we look at Coral Gables, for example, let’s imagine that Gonzalo Sanabria won a Coral Gables Commission seat. If a developer were able to secure a large enough parcel by buying up a square block (like Merrick Park was put together, using City owned land as well) I would guess that Gonzalo would be the first to champion the development just as the Herald described. So we would be forced to rely on good people in office, not always easy with our stupid electorate. At least with the State of Florida as a second tier, we have another layer of government to turn to for sanity when our elected officials are dazzled by the lure of increased tax dollars and the opportunity to return favors to their pals.

Adrienne Arsht Center, Listen Up! By Geniusofdespair

I do not need a daily email from you telling me about your boring programs. I have gotten 6 emails in 10 days! If I need to know what is at the center I will look in the paper or read one of the dozens of expensive glossy mailings you send me.

Leave me alone! I am not going to another show until the Meningitis and Swine Flu horror show is over. And, you might think about your programming if you have to bother people so much.

Adrienne Arsht can you help? I noticed you were at a Heat game Monday, go to your Performing Arts Center and talk to them for me...please!

There is no place like home: stress test zoning decisions, not just banks ... by gimleteye

I am certain the following opinion will be waved like a red flag, sending up shouts of objections and alarm through the supply chain feeding into banks and the developer lobby, but what follows needs to be said. Please click 'read more'.

Economists agree that the collapse in housing markets in the United States created a global financial flu that has plunged world economies into the worst crisis since the 1930’s. The principle blame is assessed to a shadow banking system that flourished in an anti-regulatory political atmosphere allowing simple mortgages for all kinds of real estate to be spun into confections of debt and gambles against default of the pyramid scheme incorporated in each mortgage backed security that investors bought, blessed by rating agencies connected to issuers by a culture of greed and excess.

First, to staunch the bleeding economy, the administration quickly moved to inject trillions of taxpayer guarantees into the banks and, hopefully, unfreeze locked credit markets. Second, it assembled a taxpayer bailout of key financial institutions that could not survive once the shadow parts of their enterprise were disclosed as essentially worthless. Called “too big to fail”, it was really a case of resetting the assets of a few supersized financial institutions—wiping out shareholders and many bondholders, too—so that the crumbling net worth of all Americans could retain an appearance of value, while jobs are created, inventories restocked, the economy revived and all good people woken from the dream like Judy Garland’s in the Wizard of Oz.

The restoration of real value is what the “stress test” of banks, required by the Obama administration, is all about. But it is being performed with a wink and a nod: no longer are financial institutions required to “mark to market” all their toxic assets. It is eerily similar to reporting out the pandemic flu but giving up on statistics because there are too many cases to count and too few to count them.

But this top/down governmental response is divorced from the source of so much economic pain: underlying zoning and land use for construction and development that is the fertile soil from which so much bad debt and poor judgment flowed.

Federal regulation of banks and financial institutions recognizes economic activities that link the interests of all Americans. It is imagined, or taken for granted, that land use activities are local concerns or solely the province and jurisdiction of states. The disconnect is so profound and ingrained that all sorts of constituencies simply accept as though a form of life-giving oxygen that “one size fits all” when it comes to federal regulation of banks and insurance companies but that control of private property is whatever owners can persuade local government to allow. And that is exactly what the American landscape looks like: an unfettered opportunity for speculators to commandeer the US Treasury by arbitraging the inefficiency of laws connecting the banking and insurance system to what is built in your town and mine from confections of debt.

One the one hand this sounds complicated and on another hand, it is the simplest expression of greed. Today, for example, the Florida legislature has spent its entire session—not solving the state’s enormous budget crisis on account of plunging real estate values—but eliminating what poorly funded state protections exist for managing growth. Moreover, the GOP majority is seeking to maintain its lock on political power by imposing election “reform” measures. It is the pure expression of real estate developers, their supply chain, and land speculators taking advantage of confusion now and the appearance of relative calm in stock markets to harden their bunkers before citizens decide to take up the pitchforks.

These interests are perfectly aware that the absence of regulations in financial derivatives marched hand in hand with the blushing bride: an empty, hollowed out regulatory structure that has failed to protect Floridians’ quality of life, environment, and communities. On the national scale, from California’s Central Valley to the suburbs of Las Vegas and Phoenix, the marriage was called “the ownership society”.

Today’s news if filled with portentous stories about whether or not to disclose the results to the public of “stress tests” for banks. What is forgotten, or ignored, is that these toxic assets all have physical addresses. They are sprawling, platted subdivisions that sit half-empty and weed strewn, or, condos and strip malls and other commercial space that was built out into wetlands in the last gasp of the artificial boom created by mortgage backed securities that only served the purpose of flippers and speculators when the cost of money was dirt cheap.

A truer scenario for economic recovery would impose a stress test on zoning for land development, incorporating a much higher set of hurdles than “concurrency” models that turn local zoning decisions into a game of counting angels on the head of a pin.

A case in point: Miami’s homegrown production homebuilder, Lennar Corporation. Lennar’s local vice president is president of the Latin Builders Association; the building trade group that has dominated Miami politics and by extension, zoning, for decades. The directors of the trade association are virtually indistinguishable from the banks that make loans for construction and development.

In the midst of the worst housing markets in a century, Lennar is promoting zoning changes in Miami-Dade farmland—a multi-thousand unit development called Parkland-- outside Miami-Dade’s Urban Development Boundary, close to the Everglades. The company wants the zoning change now, even though it doesn’t plan to come to market for five years.

At the very same time, the corporation is trying to offload stale inventory of past developments at fire sale prices. It recently took out this full page advertisement on in the Miami Herald: “Builder Closeout: Every Condo Must Be Sold” in bold red, white and black graphics. No longer, at least in the case of these two enormous developments called the Colonnade and North Bay Village, is Lennar trying to lure buyers with the promise of protection if the buyer loses his or her job. Now it’s a “Sealed-Bid Auction: Your Best Price Plus Zero Dollars Closing Costs!”

Developers complain about the costs of zoning, of running the hoops of state and local environmental agencies, but what they have succeeded in doing is building a regulatory structure that compounds its own difficulties by ratiocination and constantly promoting the erosion of laws intended to protect the public interest. What is missing is wisdom and judgment; ironic, because what the industry has promoted for decades is the “wise use” of private property. Look at the result it achieved.

There is nothing vaguely mystical about the deals and hand-shakes between developers and officials charged with zoning decisions that lead to so much carnage in farmland, on waterfronts where public access was routinely denied. There has been nothing like “wise use”. The pattern of low density suburban sprawl has wrecked aquifers, destroyed natural habitats and, at a time of “family values” torn apart families by imposing huge costs on commuters and consumers. If “wise use” worked, why have American taxpayers been forced to shoulder the trillions in debt, underwriting the horrendous miscalculation of risk that rained a shower of wealth from Wall Street down the supply chain of developers and production homebuilders like Lennar and into the lined pockets of local city and county commissioners?

A “stress test” for local zoning should be created to protect American taxpayers from a system of investment in development that is in key respects the kind of Ponzi scheme that could be subject to RICO prosecution. Put another way, a top-down approach to stress testing financial institutions will not lead to any kind of recovery—because the revolving door of engineers, planners, government agencies, lobbyists, and elected officials is utterly committed to reviving a failed economic model of growth.

The Obama White House has been as careful in addressing the banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies as a snake tamer in a darkened viper pit. Banks should be subject to stress tests. But more, much more could be gleaned by subjecting zoning for property development to stress tests, helping to channel economic growth according to values that benefit society instead of speculators. Indeed, there will be no economic recovery until a public interest test is applied to local land use decisions in a way that stops the deliberate and willful miscalculations of risk involving the fate of every taxpayer.