Florida Real Estate News: The End is Near / The End Probably isn't Near ... by gimleteye

When Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner spoke to the Economic Club in Washington yesterday and said the United States bears a substantial share of responsibility for a global economic crisis and its multi-trillion dollar costs, he might have pointedly singled out the epicenter of the housing market crash-- the state of Florida-- where the absence of regulations governing financial derivatives matched laws designed to fail: in particular, regulations protecting the public from the excesses of suburban sprawl.

Official pronouncements from White House officials are still far from informative. Geithner said, "Never before in modern times has so much of the world been simultaneously hit by a confluence of economic and financial turmoil such as we are now living through." Yes, well. Neither Geithner, nor President Obama, seem interested to explain how much turmoil and loss originates from the culture of deception expressed through this formula: that increase in tax base through construction and housing in new, low density "communities" is the primary purpose of government. Never mind the end result whether measured by foreclosures, a declining quality of life, degraded environment, standard of living, and a permanent, immoveable incumbency welded to the interests of production home builders, cement manufacturers, their lobbyists, engineering firms, and trade associations.

This culture is not humbled or bowed by hubris. Far from it, it has states like Florida in a vise grip. These interests are also joined by the state's other big industry: agriculture and land speculation. Here is an contrast from recent news in Florida that helps illustrate these points. In the St. Augustine Record, the preturnaturally sunny Gov. Charlie Crist pumps up the state's economy: "Florida has seen home sales grow by 20 percent over the past year... "Home sales nationwide are up 5.1 percent... and in Lee County in Southwest Florida, once Ground Zero for foreclosures, sales are up 90 percent. If I had money, I'd put it into Florida real estate." (St. Augustine Record, April 17, 2009) Crist is ready to declare the recession over and the race he plans to join to be the next US senator from Florida, complete.

In the New York Times David Leonhardt has another perspective, grounded in another reality. He reports on a Miami foreclosure auction recently where homes" ... sold for just a fraction of what they would have even a year ago. The rate of decline in Miami hasn’t even slowed noticeably in recent months, according to data kept by Real Estate Disposition Corporation, known as R.E.D.C., which runs the auctions." A recently transplanted New Yorker named Michael Houtkin won the bidding on a one-bedroom condominium on the outskirts of Boca Raton, a few blocks from three golf courses, for the incredible price of $30,000. “Things were almost being given away,” he said later.

Out with the old, in with the new.

The St. Pete Times reports, rising from the rubble that is still falling: "A development boom is brewing under the radar of Floridians distracted by deteriorating real estate values and record foreclosures. The state is processing an unprecedented number of proposals for new homes and commercial development. If approved, these projects could pump more than 600,000 rooftops onto a market suffering from a surplus of product and slowdown in population growth." (Florida Builders poised to pounce, April 17, 2009) Crist "said increases in real estate sales have come at the same time property taxes are going down, sweetening the market. Property insurance rates have also dropped by 18 percent in the past two years. "There are bright days ahead," Crist said. It is not clear if those bright days include the forecast for US banks that are being pressured to write down "toxic" derivative debt tied to mortgages, ten cents to the dollar, while being forced to make loans for new housing at one hundred cents to the dollar, and at the same time private equity is redeeming credit default swaps-- bets against the market--at par.

Again, the New York Times: "... Fannie Mae, like many banks, is inundated with foreclosed properties. In recent weeks, banks have begun accelerating foreclosures again, after having held off while waiting to find out which homeowners would be eligible for the Obama administration’s assistance program. The glut of foreclosed homes creates a self-reinforcing cycle. Falling prices lead to more foreclosures. Foreclosures lead to an excess supply of homes for sale. The excess supply then leads to further price declines."

Today, the Florida legislature is speeding a new bill toward Gov. Crist's desk to eliminate the pesky business of growth management, by eliminating the Florida Department of Community Affairs, the state agency that regulates growth. In last year's legislative session, the DCA budget was slashed to the bone. The remaining officials are literally like the last soldiers at the Alamo. The St. Pete Times reports, "When the department recently pulled together data on all major developments pending and approved since 2007, the totals were staggering: projects covering 410,126 acres, with a potential for 630,965 new homes and 479.5 million square feet of non-residential space. "This really catches me by surprise," said Denslow, who is with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. "I'll have to revise my thinking." As to the market, the Palm Beach Post notes today, "... the state's official people-counters expect that Palm Beach County will follow up its first negative-growth year in decades - a loss of 4,379 people - with further declines through 2010." That is just one Florida county. "The county's 2010 population projection is expected to be 70,000 fewer residents than predicted just two years ago. The updated projection for 2025 is down 16 percent in Palm Beach County, 13.5 percent in Martin and 8 percent in St. Lucie. The figures from the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research are the official state population projections, used to divvy up state revenue. Declines like this haven't been seen since the 1940s." ('The Population Battle", Palm Beach Post, April 23, 2009)

Speaking of revised thinking, The Augustine Record reports, "In his real estate percentages, Crist was actually conservative. Realtor Ed Paucek cited figures from the Florida Association of Realtors that indicate the state's increase is really 27 percent, not 20. And Lee County's sales were up 97 percent, not 90 as Crist said. "Sales in the Greater Jacksonville area, which includes St. Augustine, are up 6 percent," Paucek said. "Fort Myers' sales, though higher, are down 50 percent in dollar value. Here, sales are down 11 percent in dollar value. But that's a good indicator of stability. We're obviously not rising as quick as some (counties), but also not losing as much value."

The end is near. The end probably isn't near. For Jennifer Seney, an environmental activist who lives in Wesley Chapel, overdevelopment is not an abstract threat. "In her Pasco neighborhood, about one-third of the houses are for sale. Home prices are down 27 percent from a year ago. The Cypress Creek well field, on which Seney's home depends for water, is bordered on all but one side by residential development. Now the county wants to put more than 4,000 homes on the untapped portion. "It's like we can't win against this force of money and greed," Seney said. "I'm just sitting here waiting for my well to go dry." (St. Pete Times, cited above.)

Moreover, the fiscal stimulus trillions are being used by the status quo to build hardened bunkers against reality's bunker-busting bombs. Today, at the very same time the Florida legislature is humping for the Growth Machine, another new bill aimed at suppressing Florida voters --hand delivered to the legislature by Miami state senator Alex Diaz de la Portilla and Growth Machine lobbyists-- is moving at lightning speed. The bill was allowed six minutes debate in committee. It would: expand the "no-solicitation zone" at polling places creating an area, constantly shifting and impossible to enforce; restrict voters' ability to receive important non-partisan information about voting at the polling place; limit acceptable IDs for voter registration without proposing acceptable alternatives, preventing eligible citizens from registering to vote, and preventing properly registered voters from exercising their right to vote; increase the frequency of "list maintenance programs" causing more validly registered voters to be removed from the voter rolls; and discourage voter registration drives by authorizing fines up to $250 if completed registrations aren’t turned in within 48 hours.

An economy built on foundations of sand cannot stand. The longer that fictions are maintained in the service of a status quo that controls local and state legislatures, the risk increases of an economic collapse different from anything the United States has experienced in its short history. Whether the end comes in five minutes, five hours, or five months; count on the ratings for Florida's general obligation bonds first be downgraded. The rating agencies are on the case. The frikkin chickens are coming home to roost.


Florida builders poised to pounce

By Kris Hundley, Times Staff Writer

Published Friday, April 17, 2009

TALLAHASSEE — A development boom is brewing under the radar of Floridians distracted by deteriorating real estate values and record foreclosures.

The state is processing an unprecedented number of proposals for new homes and commercial development. If approved, these projects could pump more than 600,000 rooftops onto a market suffering from a surplus of product and slowdown in population growth.

Also on developers' wish lists: the right to build a half-billion square feet of non-residential space.

Such pipe dreams might seem laughable in today's depressed economy and moribund housing market. But property owners with an eye on the future are spinning plans that have the potential to unlock hundreds of thousands of agricultural and environmentally sensitive acres to residential and retail development over the coming decades.

Mike McDaniel, a planner at the state's Department of Community Affairs for 22 years, finds the surge stunning.

"Instinctively, most people would think there would be a slowdown,'' he said. "And it may be true at the other end, where the developers apply for the permit (to build). But there's been no letup here. It's a gold rush."

McDaniel said land owners, eager to turn dirt into money, are behind the push for a record number of new planned communities. Regardless of whether these mega projects become reality, the owners stand to win.

"They want to get the land-use change, strike it rich, then move off to where there are not a lot of people,'' he said.

But where will that leave Florida?

• • •

McDaniel's office at DCA is in a cluster of state office buildings on the southeast edge of Tallahassee. Down the road, a sprawling apartment complex offers a month's free rent. For sale signs dot lawns nearby. Inside DCA's offices, regulators are poring over developers' plans to put more inventory in the pipeline.

McDaniel came to DCA more than two decades ago. Now the 57-year-old chief of comprehensive planning is on the front line, riding herd over the hundreds of projects submitted for state review. His staff of about 30 must analyze huge planning proposals and report back to cities and counties within 60 days. It has been working out to an average of about two rulings a day.

"My nose is so close to grindstone, I don't look up," he said. "We used to see plans calling for 400 and 500 homes and think, 'Woo-woo, big deal!' Now those numbers have quadrupled."

Among the proposals on deck for review at DCA on just a single recent morning:

• Plans for the town of Edgewater, south of New Smyrna Beach, to double in size by jumping I-95 and annexing 5,181 acres. The project, "Restoration," would put 8,500 housing units and 3.3-million square feet of non-residential space on land that includes wetlands, agriculture and bear habitat.

• Fellsmere, a crossroads of about 4,000 in Indian River County and home of the Fellsmere Frog Leg Festival, has annexed about 22,000 acres of farmland for 42,000 homes.

• Wildwood, known for the clogged junction of I-75 and the Florida Turnpike, has stretched its north-south boundaries 15 miles, snapping up empty parcels with plans for up to about 87,000 new homes.

• Bunnell, a burg of 2,000 in Flagler County, has annexed about 80,000 acres.

McDaniel points to a satellite map of Flagler and St. Johns counties that shows plans for four projects totaling more than 20,000 homes and 7-million square feet of non-residential space. "My jaw dropped when I saw this,'' he said.

"Can there possibly be this much need? And is this area really suitable for this intensity of development?"

• • •

The planners at DCA see themselves as gatekeepers of the state's growth management laws. Now there's a sense inside the department that the sentries are being stormed at the gate.

Florida's legislators, eager to jump-start the economy, have proposed everything from eliminating the oversight agency to carving out exemptions for bigger and bigger sections of the state.

Landowners and developers, meanwhile, are taking advantage of the lull to push ahead with approvals so they'll be ready to move at the slightest sign of an uptick. It's not cheap to change an orange grove's potential use from agricultural to residential, but it's a great investment.

"Your property value goes way up,'' said Charles Gauthier, DCA's director of community planning. "Land with an urban designation is going to sell for a higher amount than land with a rural designation."

Another factor behind the deluge of requests for land use changes? Developers' fear that the Florida Hometown Democracy amendment will pass in 2010. It would give local residents, not just municipal or county officials, the right to vote on land-use changes in their neighborhoods.

"We hear from large land owners all the time that they just want to get their property entitled before Hometown Democracy goes into effect," McDaniel said. "They say, 'We might not do anything with this land for 50 years, but we want these entitlements now!' "

While the rest of his staff enjoyed the Easter weekend, McDaniel was preparing DCA's response to the mother of all development dreams, a plan to transform tiny Yeehaw Junction in Osceola County into Destiny, a city of 100,000 homes.

"I keep asking, 'Why me? Why now?' " McDaniel said. "It's daunting."

• • •

In Gainesville, veteran economist David Denslow analyzes what has happened to Florida's real estate market in the past and tries to predict what's coming in the future. Figuring into his projections are the impacts of everything from rising property taxes to falling timber prices.

Denslow said he never considered the possibility that, in light of the current downturn, a glut of new projects would be under review at the DCA. When the department recently pulled together data on all major developments pending and approved since 2007, the totals were staggering: projects covering 410,126 acres, with a potential for 630,965 new homes and 479.5 million square feet of non-residential space.

"This really catches me by surprise," said Denslow, who is with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. "I'll have to revise my thinking."

He understands developers reacting to a perceived threat like Hometown Democracy. "We saw a little bit of the same phenomenon before the growth management laws first went into effect in 1985, when there was a huge surge in permits," he said.

Also, what local public official would reject a developer who dangles promises of new tax revenues? "It's hard to find a city or county that's antigrowth these days," he said.

Denslow fears that the behind-the-scenes gold rush will doom Florida to relive its past. His assessment: When migration to Florida picks up again, newcomers will find affordable housing aplenty. Existing Florida homeowners, on the other hand, can kiss goodbye any dreams of cashing out big on their homes.

"In the 1980s, Florida had a huge increase in population but house prices, adjusted for inflation, didn't rise at all because the state and counties had been very friendly to development," Denslow said.

"Now nobody in their right mind, even an amateur flipper, could look and say that (housing) prices are going to double in the next 10 years. Prices just won't go up all that much when you've got that number of projects in the pipeline."

• • •

The spigot on that pipeline is controlled by the DCA, which can send plans back to the local authorities for revisions or reject the project outright. Most often the two sides hammer out an agreement.

"I always think the truth will out. That's nice to think, but money can buy a lot of expertise," said McDaniel, who often finds himself the only one in khakis in a roomful of suits.

One such showdown took place this month, when Haines City officials flew up to DCA's offices, two lawyers in tow. The city, well known as one of the last restroom breaks off I-4 before Disney, had proposed big changes for property just outside municipal limits.

Sitting in on the meeting was DCA Secretary Tom Pelham. A lawyer and certified planner, Pelham rejoined the agency in 2007 after having led it from 1987-91 under Gov. Bob Martinez. As one of Haines City's lawyers argued, Pelham rocked back, eyes closing, waiting for an opening. Then he pounced.

"Your plan is meaningless until you annex the land," Pelham said, citing chapter and verse in the law. "This is not something you can casually ignore or it will become a precedent that will spread across the state. And there's a lot of interest in avoiding the land-use process."

Karen Brodeen, a lawyer for the city, cut to the chase: State approval would allow development to start the minute annexation is complete. "If we have to reapply, that will add another 10 months," she pleaded.

Pelham wouldn't budge.

State planners also are holding the line on plans for more houses in Pasco County. Recently the DCA sent back a project for revision that could put 4,500 homes on cattle land south of State Road 52. Regulators point out that Pasco already is drowning in an oversupply of housing units approved but not built: 277,983 units to be exact.

About 8,400 of those lots are in the stillborn community of Connerton, immediately adjacent to the rejected development.

Started in the boom but stalled by the bust, Connerton promises a work/play environment, according to its Web site, with a shiny new clubhouse, playground and retail space. What's missing are the people. The lights are on, but only about 230 families call Connerton home.

"We're facing the same challenges everyone else is," said Stewart Gibbons, president of Connerton. "But I can't disagree that there's an awful lot of residential approved and planned for Pasco."

At the DCA, McDaniel is considerably more blunt. He said that if Pasco stopped approving new housing today, the county could accommodate new residents through 2035 — and still have more than 90,000 empty homes.

But McDaniel has learned that open spaces in Florida, whether they're in cattle or crops, are often treated as little more than a placeholder.

"Many people seem to believe that agriculture is temporary; that someday the land will be developed for housing," he said, saying that kind of thinking led to the quick-flip behavior fueling the last real estate boom. "A lot of that is the bubble mentality."

For Jennifer Seney, an environmental activist who lives in Wesley Chapel, overdevelopment is not an abstract threat. In her Pasco neighborhood, about one-third of the houses are for sale. Home prices are down 27 percent from a year ago. The Cypress Creek well field, on which Seney's home depends for water, is bordered on all but one side by residential development. Now the county wants to put more than 4,000 homes on the untapped portion.

"It's like we can't win against this force of money and greed," Seney said. "I'm just sitting here waiting for my well to go dry."

• • •

If DCA accepts a land use change, that doesn't mean it becomes a reality. Financing, local site planning and market forces determine whether a project comes to fruition.

Dan Molloy, a land-use attorney and developer in Tampa, said people shouldn't be too worried about grandiose plans.

"I could go around the state and pick out lots of different areas and you'd almost laugh about the densities (of development) proposed that are never going to happen," he said. "They'll never be marketable for practical purposes."

But having witnessed the last real estate boom, regulators and environmentalists are reluctant to hand planners a big blank check, assuming it will never be cashed. Once the state approves a land use, only local authorities can initiate a change.

"If there was ever a time for the state to catch its breath, look into the future and decide what's in the best public interest, now is the time,'' said David Guest, managing attorney of Earthjustice's Tallahassee office.

"Instead what's happening is the same syndrome that brought us to financial panic: More money for me, regardless of the future consequences. That leads long term to an unworkable community. It's about as crazy as you can get."

McDaniel fears that if Florida green-lights the huge develop ments pending, the state will repeat the mistakes of the 1960s and '70s,when places like Lehigh Acres and Cape Coral were platted with subdivisions that stood vacant for decades.

He's stumped when people say Florida's economy has suffered because growth management laws restrained development. Said he: "I thought just the opposite."

Times staffer writers Craig Pittman, James Thorner and Lisa Buie contributed to this report. Kris Hundley can be reached at hundley@sptimes.com or (727) 892-2996.


Booms in waiting

Megaprojects either approved, pending or proposed before the Department of Community Affairs would allow the development of 410,126 acres across Florida, with potentially 630,965 new homes and 479.5-million square feet of non-residential space. Here is a partial list of the proposed projects:

1. Escambia County

16,000 acres

15,000 residential units

10 million square feet non-residential

2. Washington County

55,000 acres

30,000 housing units (estimate)

12 million square feet non-residential

3. Bay County

2,045 acres

6,100 housing units

390,000 square feet non-residential

4. Old Kings Park, St. Johns County

6,149 acres

3,630 housing units

2.2 million square feet non-residential

5. Southwood Preserve, St. Johns County

2,800 acres

3,600 housing units

250,000 square feet non-residential

6. Old Brick Township, Flagler County

5,216 acres

5,000 housing units

1.15 million square feet non-residential

7. Edgewater, Volusia County

5,181 acres

8,500 housing units

3.3 million square feet non-residential

8. Farmton, Brevard/Volusia counties

47,000 acres

28,000 housing units

4 million square feet non-residential

9. Fellsmere, Indian River County

21,568 acres

42,084 housing units

6 million square feet non-residential

10. Wildwood, Sumter County

20,409 acres

86,932 housing units

109.6 million square feet non-residential

11. Central Pasco Employment Village, Pasco County

2,384 acres

4,500 housing units

4.65 million square feet non-residential

12. Bartow, Polk County

17,696 acres

11,016 housing units

28.6 million square feet non-residential

13. Yeehaw Junction, Osceola County

20,000 acres

100,000 housing units

(non-residential not yet specified)

14. North Port, Sarasota County

5,771 acres

13,000 housing units

4.2 million square feet non-residential

15. DeSoto County

3,840 acres

12,518 housing units

614,000 square feet non-residential

16. Blue Head Ranch, Highlands County

65,000 acres

54,600 housing units

3.4 million square feet non-residential

17. Okeechobee County

5,683 acres

14,000 housing units

2 million square feet non-residential

18. Miami-Dade County

960 acres

6,941 housing units

900,000 square feet non-residential

Source: Florida Department of Community Affairs

By the numbers

Since 2007, projects approved or requested would allow the development of:

410,126 acres

630,965 homes

479.5m square feet of non-residential space

Build or bust

Why do legislators seem to think we can develop our way out of the state's economic crisis? In Perspective, 1P

© 2009 • All Rights Reserved • St. Petersburg Times
490 First Avenue South • St. Petersburg, FL 33701 • 727-893-8111
Contact Us | Join Us | Advertise with Us | Subscribe to the St. Petersburg Times
Privacy Policy | Standard of Accuracy | Terms, Conditions & Copyright