Monday, June 20, 2011
Bad news bears and a double-dip recession: whose "narrative" do you believe? by gimleteye
Last week, economist Robert Shiller said there was a "substantial" probability the US will enter into recession again. Again? Wonder what the 17.3 percent of unemployed in Hialeah think about the narrative of a "double dip" recession. When, the question begs asking, was there a recovery? Americans on fixed income or who have squirreled savings into the stock market might also have a different narrative about the decade in which the best investment category was precious metals. But back to Hialeah. What, I wonder, is the true unemployment rate if the stated rate is 17.3 percent? Surely, adding the underground economy and long-term unemployed who have given up, it is considerably more: at least 25 percent. What does a double dip recession mean? For one, it is a better way to tell the news than a long-term decline through which our politics have been commandeered by charlatans. If a recession is "called", don't count on the limited benefits of federal stimulus. That has been politicked out. A decade from now, looking in the rear view mirror, will we be wondering: what in the world were we thinking?