In my informal interviews with voters, I found that none of them listened to the robocalls or they were annoyed by them. The voters said they made their decisions based on other things like the newspaper, emails, etc. Carlos, I heard your wife is your greatest asset. My advice is, get her off the phone and have her meet and greet people. You can't be in 10 places at once but you have many volunteers that can get out there and inspire people. This election is going to hinge on community wide appeal. As you can see by these two maps, this is where opportunity knocks. You can garner some votes in areas where other candidates excelled (Llorente or Campbell) and you can also get out more voters in low turnout areas that you won (i.e. just about the entire coast).
Good luck in the runoff.
17 comments:
Gimenez is so clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the field it should have been a no-brainer, obviating a run off.
If TBO wins the runoff, this county is lost, and we will have brought it on ourselves.
You can't take poison and expect it to kill someone else!
I don't think he has much to worry about. I sincerely doubt people who voted Llorente or Campbell are going to turn around and vote Robaina. Those votes were largely message votes and the message they were trying to get across doesn't bode well for Robaina.
My concern is that those who voted for Campbell won't even come out to vote again. They often feel disenfranchised. Nothing is for certain. If you want Carlos in - sign up and do some foot work.
If Bell moblilizes her people in that Leisure City precinct for Robaina, that could be good for a couple of thousand votes. Dont underestimate her drive or willingness to get to the top by aligning with anyone who can get her there that she can step on later.
There is no excuse why Gimenez left so many precincts without someone campaigning for him on election day. The Gimenez campaign now has a full month to schedule people for the next election. Every polling place and precinct should be covered. No exceptions. Please get your act together for the sake of this county.
Figure that the turnout will be about 2/3rds of the special election, about 10 percent. Campbell has to decide if he's going to endorse a candidate or try to run in 2012. An endorsement rules that out. The supporters of Bradley, Bell, and Campbell will probably sit the runoff election out. Therefore, someone needs to mount an outside negative campaign against Robaina and give him the same "swiftboating" Kerry got on 2004. Plus, Carlos needs to motivate the non Hispanic Whites in Pinecrest and Homestead and Kendall to reject Hialeah Julio.
The Llorente/Luther voting sect was just as much an anti-Gimenez vote as it was anti-Robaina. Where those votes fall now, if they go anywhere at all, will be the difference.
I agree 100% with your advice...
STOP THE ROBO CALLS!!! It is backfiring... I received 3 to 4 a day, and after a while, it was very annoying and would delete it from my answering machine without hearin the message.
Why on earth would Campbell run again? He was just trounced by Robaina and Gimenez. He didn't even beat Llorente. Not to mention that Campbell's candidacy was a "spoof" run out of the New Times offices and he raised no money. If you think Campbell is running in 2012, you must be smoking the same thing that he is.
I think I have an idea of how to get voters out. Instead of asking people to vote for someone, let's ask them to vote against someone. Perhaps we need to shift the paradigm. It matches the sentiments of the populous.
To L above,
Gimenez's work needs to be done before election day. Getting people to actually go to the polls in order to vote for him. I don't know of anyone, especially in an election like this, that is going to show up undecided and be swayed by the guy handing out palm cards as you walk in.
i want to comment on the LLorente vote being anti-candidate. Your right.
I have known Fmr. Commissioner Gimenez for years. I have even given him money. Then, I ran into him at Easter Mass (he had never been to that mass before and i go allmost every week). I was outside the church with friends and family when Fmr. Commissioner Gimenez comes by. I said: "Happy Easter Commssioner" Without stopping to say thank you, or ceasing his stride he blurted, "Former commsissioner as of last week" and continued his walk to intercept Xavier and Francis Suarez.
Four voters there (My wife, myself and freinds) were aghast. He did not say likewise, or seek our votes, just took them for granted. The man has the peoples skills of a Congolese Warlord. Don't be fooled people. This is a man i have known, given money too, run into every Halloween, and i get that? Well, he lost all four votes. In fact I voted for LLorente. I will vote for Robaina, not because he's better--i recognize that--but yes, as an anti-Gimenez vote.
Check your ego at the door. If you don't like Gimenez anymore then don't vote for him. But voting for Robaina out of spite is stupid. What is with you religious folks? Turn the other cheek or something. He was trying to be funny. Didn't you get that? When I see him anywhere, he knows me and we hardly say more than hello (if that)...he knows I am in his corner and that he doesn't have to butter me up. Maybe he felt that way with you too. He is in a glad-handing frenzy right now...give him a break.
Gimenez may not be a true politician or have great people skills, but at least he is honest and he does follow the pulse of the electorate. Robaina is better at shaking hands and kissing babies, but he is also sleazy, associates with known mobsters, and he is under a federal criminal investigation. Is Robaina's sleaze really what you want in the Mayor's Office?
By the way, if you ever met the controversial Rep. David Rivera, you would find he is the most polite, friendly, and personable politician out there. But you still need to make sure you have your ring and watch after shaking his hand.
I received 4 robo calls from Robaina and one from Gimenez. The one from Gimenez was a good one with the recorded voice of Gwen Margolis. They didn't bother me any more than the campaign literature that was sent to my mailbox. The campaign literature, visible campaign workers, phone calls (live and robo) are all signs of a vibrant campaign. The more I see from my candidate, the more confident I become.
Genius: Your dig at religious folks is under the belt. In fact I am not that overally religious. He was not being funny. He was/is arrogant and you can be in his corner all you want; I won't.
Anonymous ... you were the one with the dig and you aimed it at Gimenez. You said, "he had never been to that mass before and i go almost every week." What does his weekly attendance have to do with the fact that he said he was an ex-commissioner and walked away?
As a fellow Catholic and Gimenez supporter, I am offended. See you at confession.
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