Thursday, December 09, 2010

Myth Buster: Absentee Ballots are Lopsided Because Republicans Are Better At Getting Them. By Geniusofdespair

Over and over people said in comments, on my post earlier this week and Gimleteye's post yesterday, that lopsided Absentee Ballot results were due to Republicans focusing more on getting Absentee Ballots. I decided it was time to take Democrats out of the picture entirely to see if Absentee Ballots made sense with just Republicans. Guess what? They didn't, the anomalies persisted. There is something fundamentally wrong with Absentee Ballots in Miami Dade County and this pretty much proves it. I looked at 5 Republican primary races. To get lopsided results such as these, someone clearly had an Absentee Ballot advantage in each of these race. (Hit on images to enlarge them.)


Julio Robaina without Absentees had 6,010 votes and Miguel Diaz de la Portilla without Absentees had 6,348. There was a 338 vote difference. Add in the Absentees the advantage for Miguel jumps to 2,218.


Look at Carlos Manrique's absentee ballot numbers compared to Francisco Amador's. Amador had 943 votes without Absentees, with Absentees 1,589. Manrique had 661 votes without Absentees, with Absentees 1,654, winning second place. The first place winner with 1,062 votes (without absentees) got less absentee votes then Manrique.


Look at Ralph Rosado's absentee numbers, 1,229. He got 1/3 the votes of Bileca on election day yet he had almost as many absentee ballots. Rosado got twice as many votes in absentee ballots as he did on election day. Note everyone else in the race were pretty close between their absentee ballot and election day numbers.


Tony Japour got half the votes of Gustavo Barreiro early and election day but absentee Barreiro got more than 3 times as many votes, 2,098. When someone gets more votes in absentee then they do on election day and early voting combined, as Barrerio did here and Rosado did above, it makes me very suspicious.

In the general election Gustavo Barreiro got 5,656 votes on election day, Absentee he got 4,725 (1,313 more than his Democratic opponent who won).


David Rivera almost got as many absentee votes as he did adding election day and early voting together. Paul Crespo got half the votes on election day but in Absentee he got a quarter of the votes. Rivera went on to win the general election by his Absentee votes: Twice as many as Joe Garcia (who won in early voting and election day).

The more I look at absentee ballot results, the more disgusted I become. All you election losers, send me an email - lets work together!

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Where are the newspapers? Silent. Great work! Now what can we do?

Blue To The Core said...

I know this post is specifically not about Democrats but they had better learn to mine for absentee votes like the Republicans or they will be left in the dust. Campaigns have to be stronger earlier or Republicans will rule South Florida, oh wait they do.

Anonymous said...

The democrates have a majority in the state, but somehow have managed to lose most elections. The AB system currently favors republicans because they know how to use the system put in place by the state legislature better than the democrates.

Anonymous said...

Who has relatives or friends in the senior centers or communities? Will someone step-up here?

Anonymous said...

While we are talking openly about the cold hard truth, typically, early voting favors the Dem's. The effort there is to get the African-American voters out after church on Sunday to go early vote. It is no secret that church buses are used to take the congregants to go vote, or the candidates provide transportation. Early voting is an expensive joke. With the easy availability of AB's and 12 hours to vote on election day, there shoudl be little or no reason to have the extended early voting that now exists. There is no consistency of early voting times between the various counties and municipalities can establish their own schedules. IF we are going ot have fair early voting, then there needs to be a set standard throughout the state and limited to a very short time frame.

Anonymous said...

Agree early voting numbers don't make sense when you factor in the cost but there is more room for abuse with absentee ballots, as we can plainy see. We don't want to see politians taking unfair advantage of our seniors.

Love & War Daily said...

The reason why is because they hire a few women that dedicate themselves to gathering the absentee ballots from certain sections of the county. This includes the senior citizen centers. If you pay one of these ladies $5,000 to $10,000 they will get you 2500,5000,10000,or more AB's. This is how its done here in town.

Anonymous said...

Nursing homes, section 8 housing, assisted living facilities. It's a cottage industry. Let's get real, they are bending and breaking the rules everywhere. Do you have the cash to win an election in South Florida? If so, sign up and go to work.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the previous post. Having run a clean campaign I can tell you that if you don't have the money to buy into the absentee ballot machine you don't have a prayer. I have a voter that the ballot was never received at her daughters house and yet she voted. Why? Good question. I let the department of elections know and that was the end of that. They should be looking at the signatures of voters from nursing home etc. just like they are looking into the recall signatures. Voters with alzheimer, or any mental illness that affects their ability to make sound judgement, should not be allowed to vote. Are they allowed to drive? It is up to the children to revoke their voting rights and I guarantee that many don't know that the parents are voting (or someone is voting for them)and those that do know are playing the game...I have 3 votes for you ;)

Anonymous said...

Personally,I think the candidates who ran on the republican ticket and lost, ought to be very unhappy about the party dollars (and PAC funds) going to select people to run AB ballot operations against them - Pretty much what the Dems did with Ms. Katy Edwards - they sunk all their money on that horse to the determinant of all the other Dems that were running.

Anonymous said...

Opening your eyes? FINALLY!

Anonymous said...

Can we access the actual absentee ballots for one or more of these races? If so, I'll lend my expertise to build a data base (names, addresses, voting results, etc). Also, if huge amounts of cash are buying votes, is this cash coming from campaign contributions reported on candidate campaign finance reports and to what degree (if any) are these campaign finance reports audited or is this money flowing in from the FL GOP account?

Anonymous said...

the expense reports are not due until january.

the money for the AB operations will be hidden in money paid out to other organizations.

Anonymous said...

You canot judge the Republican Party's absentees ballot plan by looking at Republican primary elections, beause the Party isn't involved in the effort - it operates just in the general election. The data from these primary elections show that some GOP candidates have a better organized AB efforts than others. Sure, there are AB vote-getters in the Latin senior citizen community, and they charge for their services, just as certain "palm card" distributors do in Black precincts in Democratic primaries. Evidence of local political machines is not evidence of voter fraud. Sorry.

Anonymous said...

Well, as the saying goes, ...where there is smoke there is fire...

I don't know if this is a Rep based effort, but I think that it is kinda strange that circumstances tend to be affecting only Rep winners.

It is also amazing that the Dems, Independents and others are too stupid to figure it out...

Hmmm, do you ya think maybe they hesitate doing it because of a tinge of ethical considerations? Or perhaps, they just respect their elders?

Geniusofdespair said...

READER SAID:
The data from these primary elections show that some GOP candidates have a better organized AB efforts than others.
I SAID:
NOT TO THE EXTENT WE ARE SEEING. THERE IS JUST SO MUCH MILK YOU CAN GET FROM A COW. SOMEONE -- MAYBE THE MACHINES KNOW WHERE TO GO TO GET ADDITIONAL MILK --- WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POT FOR THE CANDIDATES....

Anonymous said...

Absentee ballots are for sale. Period.

Ask any candidate willing to answer about calls they get from folks with XX ABs available for YY dollars.

Want to understand ABs? Forget the parties altogether and look at the down-ticket non-partisan races -- judges, school board, etc. You will see race after race that was close in actual voting, but where ABs ran 10- or 15-to-1. You will see races where ABs were massively out of proportion to the split of actual votes cast.

Everyone in this town knows the names of the consultants/lobbyists to call. The corruption is perfectly vertically integrated: "I get you elected, then when you get to Tallahassee or on the bench or at the school board, you're my guy or gal. I'll only charge you $15K per election -- not your money anyway -- because the REAL money comes to me from phosphate miners or the car dealers or the builders or the PBA or whomever it is that hires me to help with their "cause." They pay me because YOU, the candidate I got elected, listen to me. Then we all take pictures together in the shadow the Capitol that I like to think of as my private stable."

Trouble is, these folks will NEVER be prosecuted because the prosecutors call them at election time, too. In any decent town, there would be a special grand jury and the subpoenas would number in the hundreds. Here, it's all settled over lunch at Versailles.

There simply is no democracy here as most people understand that word. Visit the apartment in Sweetwater with the bins of hundreds of completed ABs waiting to be delivered. Visit the comedores, where my people gladly sell out the votes of the viejos who brought them here. Visit with los boleteros as they make their rounds.

It is as bad as you can imagine and it is never going to get better. Best to say eff it, and go to the beach.

Anonymous said...

You have the address of the apartment in sweetwater? Email it.

Anonymous said...

hey... I will call the new governor when he gets sworn in...

Anonymous said...

We need a real investigation by the Feds to stop the voter fraud taking place with absentee ballots and the Cuban American elderly in Miami. If they canvass the absentee ballot envelopes, they will see a disproportionate percentage of signatures LEFT of the flap. This is done so the voter hands their unmarked ballot, but open and signed envelope to the ABS "brokers" who then sell the votes to the highest bidder - even after being hired and paid by one candidate - they take the ballots and sell them to their opponent! It is rumored that one primary state senate candidate won by paying $25 and up to $100 per ballot. If the senior refuses to hand over the unmarked-but-envelope-signed-left-of-the-flap ballot, they are threatened to lose their section 8 apt or the daily meal at the senior center. Where are the state attorney's, AG and Feds that allow this to happen year after year? We all know this is happening, we even talk about it in the Elections Department lobby with the workers, then what does it take to put a stop to it? This nonsense is hurting our democracy, electing crooked politicians, and perpetuating a banana republic mentality in South Florida. Each and every one of us needs to write, call and email the state attorney, the attorney general of Florida, and the Feds to demand an investigation so we stop this once and for all! Let's do it, NOW.

Anonymous said...

Look into Richard Dunn's election to the City of Miami Commission. Massive absentee ballots.