Notes from the edge ... guest blog

"Despite being outspent 9 to 1 in "independent" expenditures, the Democrats have started to claw their way back in races across the country. The outcome now depends on undecided voters, and whether or not they break decidedly for the GOP. This can happen in wave elections, particularly if Democratic "drop off' voters do not make it to the polls." for full report...

"Anger is an energy." ... John Lydon

Mr. Lydon, a musician, might have added to his original refrain that anger fueled by faulty information can be a lethal political combination. Disinformation is everywhere from Fox News to the ubiquitous "independent" ads from Karl Rove and the Chamber of Commerce. There have been well over 60,000 right wing independent ads since August 11. The number could reach 90,000 by Election Day. With little available to counter the deceptive content, many voters may enter the polling booth with lies in their heads. Of course, this is an historical feature of GOP campaigning, not a bug.

The press has begun to notice that the "Tea Party" is not a separate entity from the Republican Party, but rather its well-financed conservative base. In polling Tea Party members, 58% said African Americans and other minorities "were getting too much attention from the government." Nearly half of the Tea Partiers say they belong to the religious right. The Tea Partiers also are overwhelmingly concerned about government spending. As Matt Taibbi noted in Rolling Stone, however, "the vast majority of its members are former Bush supporters who yawned through two terms of record deficits. The average Tea Partier is sincerely against government spending with the exception of money spent on them." "Keep the Government out of Medicare" as one Tea Party sign read. As their leader, the former two-year Alaska Governor would say, "You betcha."

The right wing wants to have it both ways: when running the government, the GOP is incompetent ("heck of a job, Brownie") and inefficient (pallets full of cash disappearing from Baghdad airport). When out of power, they say government is the enemy. The right also has an answer when right wing governance is a failure. With Bush, conservatism was "corrupted."

Here is one recent illustration of the GOP's "a la carte" approach to government. In Tennessee, firefighters consulted their delinquency list and let a man's house burn to the ground for want of a $75.00 fee. This resulted from the GOP county commissioner's decision against a countrywide fire department. It was more important for them to campaign against a miniscule property tax increase. Since the fire department is at the top of needed "public" services, a putative GOP Congress will make Marie Antoinette proud. As patron saint Newt says, the election is between the "food stamp and paycheck party." Any code word, any wedge issue will be used. Public faith in government is at a record low, and the GOP is doing every thing it can to drive this sentiment.

There remains a significant election "enthusiasm" gap between partisans. One problem with this election is simple communication. The Democrats and their allies were not clear about the success of the legislation passed in the past 22 months. While not everything progressives wanted, this was the most accomplished Congress in 45 years. A recent poll shows that a clear majority of Democrats do not know this. The economy remains the overwhelming driver of this election, and it has drowned out any Democratic accomplishments.

The Administration might have been more politically successful if it followed GOP protocol in the winter of 2009. If a Republican was in the White House, the right wing echo chamber and GOP politicians would have filled the airwaves that a "Democratic recession" had driven the country off a cliff and the capital gains tax had to be immediately eliminated. Instead, the Obama team hardly mentioned Bush. When asked in a poll "which Party was responsible for the economic collapse, 70% said "Bush and the Republicans." So there was clear room here. But the Administration tried to govern with only GOP obstruction for their effort. Democratic policy saved the country from another Depression but it was never sold properly to the public.

Despite being outspent 9 to 1 in "independent" expenditures, the Democrats have started to claw their way back in races across the country. The outcome now depends on undecided voters, and whether or not they break decidedly for the GOP. This can happen in wave elections, particularly if Democratic "drop off' voters do not make it to the polls.

Luckily, the GOP is helping the Democratic cause. Each day brings new and interesting revelations and statements to light: Congressional candidates dressing up like the SS on weekends or saying there needs to be more "white activism" to prevent race mingling. A Congressional candidate in Michigan said the President could solve the "birther" question by gathering Rush Limbaugh, Alan Colmes, and a Supreme Court justice, among others, into the Oval office and producing his certificate. Impeachment was mentioned as a threat if he did not. Sharron Angle in Nevada said in early October that "Muslim law" has been instituted in Frankford, Texas - a town that ceased to exist when it was annexed into Dallas around 1975. On and on, one literally could not make this madness up. It is beyond satire, a dangerous clown show. Jon Stewart can barely keep up.

While the pundit class has pronounced the Democrats dead, there are enough close races that a path to hold Congress still exists. Despite the economy, the President's approval rating keeps inching up. The Republicans remain less popular than the Democrats. There are an unprecedented 87 seats currently listed as up for grabs in the House. A wide range of outcomes is clearly possible, from the Democrats maintaining narrow control (i.e. losing 35 seats) to facing a disaster (losing 60+ seats). In the Senate, California, Connecticut and Washington look better for the Democrats, while Missouri, Wisconsin, Ohio, and New Hampshire look more difficult. Illinois, Colorado and Pennsylvania could go either way. The Republican candidate in West Virginia is against the minimum wage while his wife lives in Florida to avoid state taxes and cannot vote for him. Ken Buck, the GOP candidate in Colorado, once told an alleged rape victim she had "buyers remorse" when he was a prosecutor and refused to move her case forward. Buck noted, "being gay is similar to alcoholism." Ron Johnson, the plastics manufacturer turned Senate candidate in Wisconsin, thinks, "sunspots cause global warming." He wants the U.S. to have a business climate more like China. Right now, the Democrats face a loss of four seats, with five seats that could still tip either way.
This report will cover the Northeast.

Once a manufacturing powerhouse, New York was the entry point for immigrants. It is the economic center of the financial industry. The daisy chain of fraud in housing finance is not haunting the banks again, as sloppy paperwork has clouded titles across the nation. New York City is the product of major investments in infrastructure, from bridges and tunnels to highways. Now a badly needed train tunnel from New Jersey to New York cannot be dug because the Governor of New Jersey doesn't want to help pay for it.

New York has become a Democratic state, and the President easily carried the state in 2008. Rockefeller Republicans can no longer win GOP primaries. In the Governor's race, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is running against Carl Paladino, a Buffalo real estate developer. Paladino, bug-eyed with anger, is always on the attack. He is the "Howard Beale" candidate from the movie Network and that media satire is not far from the current TV landscape. He was caught sending racist and sexist emails, and threatened to "take out" a news reporter. One televised debate was a free-for-all as it featured all the candidates including a New York City madam and Jimmy McMillan of the "rent is too damn high" party. Cuomo will win this race by a large margin. Paladino will go back to his real estate empire that is subsidized by public money.
In the first of the two Senate races, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer is safe in his re-election bid. He entered the race with well over $20 million in the bank. Hopefully, he has started to spread the money around. In the second seat, appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is running against Republican former U.S. Representative Joe DioGuardi. She is averaging a double-digit lead in the polls, and will easily win this race.

In Congress, the Democrats have made great strides in the last two election cycles. These wins are in jeopardy, but the collapse of the top of the GOP ticket will help Democrats. In NY-19, Democratic incumbent John Hall is running against self-financed ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth. The district is closely divided and Hall is working hard to appeal to the center in this toss up race. In New York's 23rd Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Bill Owens is in a difficult race against Republican businessman Matt Doheny. Doug Hoffman, who lost the Republican primary and was the Conservative Party candidate, recently dropped out. Doheny has spent about $1 million of his own money. Democrat Michael Arcuri is in a rematch in NY - 24 against Republican businessman Richard Hanna. Arcuri has taken heat from Democrats for voting against health care.

Four other Democratic seats could possibly swing to the GOP. All are contested races. In Long Island's 1 sl District, Tim Bishop is up against self-financed Republican Randy Altschuler. In NY -13, incumbent Mike McMahon is trying to fend off attacks from FBI Agent Michael Grimm. McMahon benefits from an endorsement by Mayor Bloomberg. Democratic Representative Scott Murphy won his seat in NY-20 via special election in 2009 and faces retired Army Colonel Chris Gibson. There is significant GOP outside spending in this race. In the 251h District, Democrat Dan Maffei faces Ann Marie Buerkle, a right wing extremist who formerly led Operation Rescue. Maffei is still considered a slight favorite. The state will lose one Congressional seat. Upstate will be the loser as districts are consolidated. There is also a battle for control of the State Senate.

Connecticut has the highest per capita income in the nation. The state was once a manufacturing powerhouse and its people sparked many innovations from firearms to the cotton gin to the brass industry. Now, the big drivers are insurance, finance, defense contracting and New York City suburbs.
Democrat Dan Malloy, former Mayor of Stamford, is facing former Ireland Ambassador and Bush fundraiser, Tom Foley for Governor. Like most states, the economy is the big issue in this race. Foley presided over the bankruptcy of a factory in Georgia. A high roller who shut down a factory is not the profile one wants in these times. Malloy has consistently held a single-digit lead in the polls, and the retiring Republican governor, and the anti-incumbent fervor in the state helps him.

While not as staged as a World Wrestling Entertainment match, the Senate race is receiving lots of national attention. WWE CEO Linda McMahon is spending tens of millions of her own money to defeat the Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. October polling shows Blumenthal with a double-digit lead over McMahon, but other polls have shown a tighter race. Blumenthal has highlighted the raunchy underbelly of entertainment wrestling to draw a correlation between McMahon and her product. McMahon, a plutocrat, favors lowering the minimum wage. Blumenthal is not a great candidate on the stump and he damaged two decades of public service with his ridiculous claims about Vietnam. This mishap gave McMahon an opening, but Blumenthal should still be able to prevail, albeit without a comfortable margin.
In the 4th "Gold Coast" Congressional District, Democrat Jim Himes is polling even with Republican State Senator Dan Debicella. Himes needs to motivate voters in Bridgeport and Stamford. The NRCC is spending in Connecticut's 5th District where Democratic Representative Chris Murphy is in a race against GOP State Senator Sam Caligiuri. Democrats should hold the other districts and the state will not lose a district in 2012.

Rhode Island was once a major manufacturing center. Textile mills drew many immigrants in the early 20th century and the state turned heavily Catholic. Tourism is now the state's second-largest industry. The economy still has a long way to go as unemployment is close to 12%. Rhode Island is politically Democratic and there should be little or no change in district boundaries.

In Rhode Island's 1 st Congressional District, Patrick Kennedy is retiring. The district is host to a close race between Providence Mayor David Cicilline and Republican State Representative John Loughlin. Cicilline is openly gay. Unfortunately, Mayors of Providence have had a checkered history (see Cianci, Buddy), so it has been more difficult to win votes in suburbia. Cicilline won the Democratic primary with only 37% so this will be a closer race than it should be.

Republican Governor Donald Carcieri is term-limited and there is a three-way race to succeed him. Democratic Treasurer Frank Caprio has been polling with a slight lead for the past few months over former GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee, who is running as an Independent. Chafee is way ahead of Republican John Robitaille, who was communications director under Carcieri. Democrat Caprio will win the 1 st Congressional District, while Chafee fares better in the 2nd District. A Democrat has not won the Governor's seat in Rhode Island since 1984.

Massachusetts was the spark of the American Revolution. Boston existed as the central hub of New England commerce and its docks and factories offered plenty of opportunity. The state population increased rapidly with immigration from Ireland and Italy.

The state slowly shifted from manufacturing to service and industrial innovation from its universities. There was a housing bubble, but not as severe as in other states. In September, the state's unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, following seven consecutive months of job growth and lower unemployment.
The Irish came to dominate the Democratic Party and eventually helped oust the Yankee Republicans who had dominated state politics and commerce. Sports and politics are big pastimes in Massachusetts, and it is expected that the play is smart and aggressive in both. The state, once known for its liberalism, stunned the political world when Republican Scott Brown filled the seat of the late Ted Kennedy. With his term expiring in 2012, Brown will be heavily challenged. Democrats currently hold all statewide offices and all U.S. House seats.

Incumbent Governor Deval Patrick is in a tight three-way race against Republican businessman Charles Baker and Independent Tim Cahill. Cahill's campaign has floundered of late in the midst of staff resignations with charges of conspiracy and tampering. There are lawsuits, intrigue and a number of "only in the Bay State" incidents. Patrick has averaged single-digit leads in most polls, but Republicans are more energized. The President was there last weekend to rally support for the Democrats.

Incumbent Democrat Bill Delahunt is retiring in Massachusetts's 10th District, leading to a battle between Norfolk County DA Bill Keating, the Democrat, and Republican State Representative Jeff Perry. Keating moved into the district at the last minute to run in an open seat. Three other Independent candidates are running in this race. In MA-4, Barney Frank is facing a major challenge for the first time in years from Republican Sean Bielat. His opponent's campaign is focused on the Federal Housing Authorities. The state is expected to lose one seat in the census count.

In its early years, Vermont's economy was mostly agricultural, and the state still has a healthy diary industry. Ben and Jerry's was just one of the formerly small businesses started by immigrants to the state that has grown rapidly. State population ranks second to last, only in front of Wyoming. There is a bustling tourism economy, focused on skiing, fall foliage and the state's natural beauty. This state was once filled with Yankee Republicans, but Democrats have been the party of choice over the past two decades. The President carried almost all of the state's cities and towns with almost two-thirds of the vote.
Republican Governor Jim Douglas is retiring and Democratic State Senator Peter Shumlin now leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie. While the Vermont economy is not as troubled as other states, it is still better to be the "out" party this year. This race is still a toss up.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Pat Leahy will have little trouble defeating Len Britton for his seventh term. Leahy has been polling with a 30-point lead. Democratic Congressman Peter Welch will likely prevail in his re-election bid against Republican Paul Beaudry. Despite heavy NRCC and independent expenditure spending, Welch is still holding his own. Due to the Presidential primary election, New Hampshire has national attention every four years. The state followed the rest of the Northeast by building textile mills along the rivers. Shoe factories followed and then closed. New Hampshire's proximity to Massachusetts's high tech belt and its lack of state taxes allowed southern New Hampshire to grow rapidly in the last two decades. During the tech boom, New Hampshire generated numerous IT jobs and enticed major companies like Liberty Mutual and Timberland. School districts grew and needed more funding and this led to a statewide property tax.

Once home to rock ribbed Republicans, Democrats have had much success as of late, holding majorities in both the state Senate and House. Obama won 54% of the vote in 2008. The state looked like it was swinging from purple to blue. This year the GOP is making a strong comeback.

Democratic Incumbent Governor John Lynch has a lead, but this race remains competitive due to the current political environment. Lynch won in 2008 with 70% of the vote. He could make history this year if he wins a fourth two-year term. His opponent is former Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen who won the GOP primary with 61 percent in a four-way field. Stephen has been touting fiscal discipline, the usual GOP fare. The Governor is promoting his success with the state's economy. Though Lynch's job approval is close to 60%, this is still close.

In the open Senate race, Democratic Representative Paul Hodes is facing a major challenge against former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. Ayotte was appointed Attorney General by Democrat Lynch. She said at the time that she had no electoral ambition, so she must have crossed her fingers. Both candidates had about the same amount of cash on hand at the end of August, but Ayotte has consistently led in all polling. Ayotte also was caught using a death penalty case for her own advantage. Hodes' TV ads are arguing he will stop deficit spending and roll back tax cuts for the rich. Ayotte is running the usual tax and spend campaign. Hodes is five points behind in the most recent poll.

In New Hampshire's 1 st Congressional District, Incumbent Democratic Representative Carol Shea-Porter faces Republican Frank Guinta, the former Manchester Mayor. Despite some controversy, Guinta is ahead in the polls. Shea-Porter must connect with Independents in addition to keeping her base engaged in this race. In the 2nd Congressional District is yet another toss up race between progressive Democrat Ann McLane Kuster and former Representative Charlie Bass. Bass held this seat until beaten by Hodes. Polling shows the two candidates neck and neck, but Kunster had a more contested primary so she has less money. This district is a bit more Democratic than the 1 st District, and it is very important that the Democrats hang on.

Maine's small town atmosphere remained quiet until the high-tech boom reached Portland. The serene landscapes and waterfront properties have long drawn the wealthy for their second homes. Tourism is big business. There is an ongoing political battle over how citizens should use Maine's natural environment. Maine shrimp and lobster remain a seafood industry staple. The state has an aging population, which raises healthcare costs and lowers workforce numbers.

Both Republican Senators, Collins and Snowe, say they are "independent moderates," but vote increasingly like party line Republicans. There is no Senate contest this year, though both Senators will likely face Tea Party primary challengers in their next elections.

Democratic Governor John Baldacci is retiring. A close three-way race to succeed him has evolved. Democratic State Senator Libby Mitchell faces Tea Party¬backed Paul LePage and Independent Eliot Cutler. Polling shows LePage and Mitchell running dead even, with Cutler receiving anywhere from 10-20%. Following in the footsteps of most Tea Party favorites, LePage has been a controversial candidate. Though he was once on welfare, he now proposes major cuts to the program. He has strongly denounced the Obama Administration and was caught out of compliance with Florida laws on his own homestead exemption. Both party committees are now spending in the race. Mitchell must run an energetic campaign and capitalize on LePage's temperament and statements about evolution.

Both Democratic congressional candidates were considered safe. Democrats Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud have outraised their opponents. The Republicans are attacking Pingree because she is engaged to a person of means. Republicans usually consider economic success as a plus, but it apparently is not allowed for Democrats. Maine will maintain both districts after the Census.