The economy is a perfect storm for Amendment 4, Florida Hometown Democracy... by gimleteye

I'm looking forward to the midnight mailers from shadowy political groups funded by the Growth Machine that will try to sabotage Amendment 4, Florida Hometown Democracy, in the final weeks leading up to the November election. These mailers are in production now, and it is going to be a costly campaign for the real estate development industry and supply chain. I can't wait to see how they try to frighten voters, the way they did in 2006 to persuade voters that evil lobbyists would seize control of Florida unless a supermajority requirement were put on amendments to the Florida constitution by ballot referendum. Of course it made no sense, but the scare tactic worked and its funders had Florida Hometown Democracy squarely in their gunsights.

Lesley Blackner, a founder of Florida Hometown Democracy, calls the constitutional amendment-- that would empower local voters with the chance to shape changes to local growth plans, and not rubber-stamped by proxies for land speculators--a "once-in-a-lifetime" opportunity. She is right. The Third Great Depression we are in the midst of has not only beaten down developers, but also civic activists. (please click, 'read more')

The group of Amendment 4 supporters who are working as volunteers leading up to November will not be re-assembled again. The hardships and difficulties that Ms. Blackner, her co-founder, Ross Burnaman, and key volunteers have endured-- to simply get the constitutional amendment on the ballot and now educate Floridians-- are fearsome. In my view, this is the first and last time Florida voters will have a direct opportunity to vote on growth at the state-wide ballot box.

It is entirely predictable that incumbents and aspiring state-wide politicians (and most local officials, too) fear Florida Hometown Democracy like the plague. None would risk antagonizing their base campaign contributors on both sides of the aisle: real estate development and related interests, including the engineering cartel. While Amendment 4 is one of the hottest issues in the nation, it has attracted scarcely a whisper from candidates for office.

But the public mood is surly for good reason. According to a recent, astounding report by The Miami Herald, "More than 80 percent of home loans Florida are "under water'' -- meaning owners owe more on the loan than the house could sell for -- according to data available as of May 31, and nearly 40 percent of all Florida borrowers owe more than 150 percent of the value of the home, Slump said." Slump, managing director of the ratings agency, Fitch, also said that "Florida already ranks the worst among all states in mortgage delinquencies across all product types.''

The battered economy is a perfect storm for Florida Hometown Democracy. As despondent as its supporters are, on account of the mismatch between their financial resources and the remaining liquid assets of their opponents-- that I expect to be used as a flamethrower against the proposed constitutional amendment-- the costs of overdevelopment have hit Floridians so hard, so violently, that it is possible Florida voters will read the ballot and cast their vote in favor of taking away the rubber stamp that lead to so much overdevelopment from developers and local county and city commissioners.

Put another way, Florida Hometown Democracy has a better chance to win sixty percent of Florida voters than if you own a beachfront condominium in Pensacola and want to sell it at a forty percent discount from your purchase price. The frickin' chickens have come home to roost.



MORTGAGES
Oil spill hits housing market, Fitch confirms


BY JANE WOOLDRIDGE

JWOOLDRIDGE@MIAMIHERALD.COM

Fitch Ratings has confirmed what Floridians already suspected: Homeowners battling high unemployment and decreased home values have a new enemy in the Gulf oil spill.
"Florida already ranks the worst among all states in mortgage delinquencies across all product types,'' Fitch managing director Roelof Slump said.
Half of Florida's mortgage loans are delinquent by 60 days or more, according to the study, which did not include mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. More than 80 percent of home loans Florida are "under water'' -- meaning owners owe more on the loan than the house could sell for -- according to data available as of May 31, and nearly 40 percent of all Florida borrowers owe more than 150 percent of the value of the homes, Slump said.
Impact from the Gulf oil spill will likely make matters worse, especially in areas where oil may affect fishing and tourism.
"It's a little hard to make significant projections about how much home prices are likely to decline,'' Slump said, ``but directionally, it seems pretty clear that given all the pressures these homeowners are under, both the frequency and severity [of defaults] are likely to worsen.''
Florida is unique, Slump said, in that the decrease in property values has occurred statewide, though some areas have been hurt worse. And Florida rates among the hardest hit by unemployment. The most recent government data puts its unemployment rate at 11.7 percent.
Florida accounts for about 10 percent of all securitized mortgages held outside Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, but about 16 percent of the delinquent loans.
The Fitch report confirms a May prediction by Moody's credit rating agency that warned property values could drop in areas affected by the spill.