Friday, April 24, 2009

On budget crises, the X-rated version ... by gimleteye

No surprise that government budget deficits are everywhere and especially in a state where most of the revenue stream is from real estate transactions and property taxes. Sure there have been tax reform commissions and every sort of wriggling. The pain for governments is only just starting. As 2008 tax revenue receipts begin to be scrutinized, the news is going to be worse-- much worse. Tax loss carry-forwards should continue at least into 2009, further hobbling revenue. 2010 is anyone's guess (and I mean, anyone). So far, government and the media are loathe to roll out what it means to be in the worst economic crisis since the Depression. This is a slow motion version, compared to the 1930's, because the financial system is well geared to stretch out extreme monetary events. I'm reminded of McCain economic advisor and former US senator Phil Gramm's bizarre comment in the heat of the campaign that Americans should stop whining. He said, we are in "a mental recession". Gramm and today's newspaper publishers are of the view that the public can't stand too much bad news, that a downward cycle is self-reinforcing. Gramm, naturally, became a multi-multi millionaire at UBS after doing the major work for deregulation of the banking and investment industries. Newspaper publishers are just hoping that their real estate advertising sections will revive before their stocks are de-listed. In Tallahassee, the Republican majority is in "secret budget meetings". Too bad they're secret, because all the blather and demagoguery is being stripped bare as a newborn babe. Only taxpayers and voters are not wise enough--apparently-- to be exposed to unadulterated facts.


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