President Obama didn't have to put much political capital at risk in his overture to Cuba, to get the first points on the score board since Fidel became sick and infirm.
It went something like this. Raul Castro reacted favorably to Obama's overture to a new beginning, and Fidel-- old, ill, and indignant-- lashed out through the media that dares not contract him, even in its enfeebled state. In a Wednesday editorial, Fidel wrote, "Obama "without a doubt misinterpreted Raul's declarations." It would delight, if only for the presumption of a wedge between the brothers.
I'm going hazard a guess that the young technocrats are not going to say much now, but that their bets are with the new and not with the old leader. Be patient.
The mad scramble is in Miami and in Florida politics where, according to a recent Bendixen and Associates poll: "President Barack Obama receives surprisingly high ratings from Cuban Americans - a group that has very strong ties to the Republican Party. Two-thirds of all Cuban adults (67%) give him a favorable rating while only 20 percent give him an unfavorable rating."
The truth is that the antagonism between reactionaries in Miami and in Havana served both very well, helping cement a status quo that has been immoveable until now. The barbs and missiles, the spies and persecution, created hegemonies that are proving vulnerable to reality as the Wicked Witch of the West was, to water. But time is the great solvent of impenetrable politics, and a rotten economy can also solve resistance to change.
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