Poppy Bush teed Jeb up for a US Senate run in advance of a future run for president. It made national news. I'm in the group that thinks this huff and puffing is meant to clear the Republican field for an unchallenged primary that will allow Jeb to hoard campaign dollars for a general election run for the open US Senate seat in 2010. The Democrats, on the other hand, have a handful of candidates including Miami's State Senator Dan Gelber and Congressman Kendrick Meek who have their own strengths. Gelber is smart and tough and a very good campaigner; he beats Jeb on fact. Meek is also charismatic, if less seasoned; he has a long history with Bush, including getting under Jeb's skin, that would make an entertaining campaign. But a primary clash among Democratic candidates would do for the Senate race what the governor's race in 2006 did for the Dems; Rod Smith knocked Jim Davis out of the general election, paving the way for Charlie Crist. I'm no fan of Jeb: good opposition research will show how his rigid ideology lead to the worst economic and social crisis in Florida's history. If the Democrats can focus a candidate on the general election, Jeb has formidable obstacles to being elected a US Senator from Florida. I would guess Jeb's chance of winning in that case at 30 percent. But if Democratic candidates tear each other up in a primary, his chances go up because in the end, campaign cash buys a lot of political cover. What do you think?
8 comments:
The Dems made a mistake with Jim Davis. Rod Smith was a better statewide candidate to run against the republicans. He'd still be a good candidate to run today. Neither Gelber, nor Meek, can pull any votes north of Lake Okeechobee.
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Gimleteye writes: maybe, on north of Lake Okeechobee. Davis was limited by cash: he never had a chance because of the burn rate in the primary and the narrow window between primary and general. Maybe someone can provide the statistics.
Jeb is very popular everywhere in Fla. He can raise a lot of money, not only in-state but nation-wide. Jeb can win it. I put his chances at winning at about 80%
Consider also that the race is a year+ out. time heals all wounds.
Jeb was a lousy Gov and would make the same kind of Pres as his brother. It is vital for eery thinking Floridian to do all in their power not to let Jeb back in office. And I am one of those rich guys who are supposed to want republicans in office so that only the poor and middle class suffer and the rich get richer.
Anon has it wrong-the proper phrase here is "time wounds all heels".
Even a year from now, Florida is still going to be recovering from the mess created by the Jebster when he was governor.
It is quite likely that we will have not even approached a bottom by then and memories of who is responsible will be long.
My worst nightmare: to see his face again in a powerful position in our state again. The Bush Brothers are a nightmare I have lived through with eyes wide shut.
Jim Davis is too short Not a Moderate. Short people rarely win.
I meant ROD SMITH.
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