Thursday, March 29, 2007
A river runs through it by gimleteye
On this blog, we highlight the political origins in Florida, and in Miami in particular, of the housing bubble now bursting. It has a long way to go.
Florida had already mapped out wealth creation through suburban sprawl. Long before former Fed chief Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates, the Florida dredge bucket had replaced the orange blossom as the state flower.
The housing bubble has been an equal opportunity employer for both political parties. The two terms of former governor Miami resident Jeb Bush coincided neatly with the building boom that also propelled George W. Bush to the presidency.
Terry McAuliffe, former chair of the Democratic National Committee, holds mortgage banking interests in Florida. In the 2000 presidential race, Al Gore’s key advisors included Florida real estate lawyers, one reason why environmental issues were supressed in Gore's state campaign.
At a key moment after the November 2000 election, Republican congressional staffers were airlifted to Miami to create chaos at the supervisor of election office and stop the recount.
There was one public official who could have kept the recount alive. His name was Alex Penelas, a Democrat, and at the time he was the mayor of Miami Dade County.
As housing markets crash, every boom town will have its own version of how the public trust was pillaged, how benefits of the boom were privatized and risks were socialized. Miami is the index case.
In Miami, the socialization of risk happened in particularly toxic ways: wealthy rock miners, for instance, who supply aggregate for roadways and construction by excavating Everglades wetlands for lime stone, suppressed information that timed explosives used to expand mines were injecting cancer-causing benzene into the drinking water aquifer supplying 2.4 million people.
Today, cracks in the foundation are showing everywhere, and they lead to interesting places.
Local elected officials have long served the purpose of facilitating land speculation and development in farmland. When too much light shone on decision makers or county department heads, providing that they weren’t indicted, more often than not they moved out of government service and into consulting jobs with big engineering firms, or, lesser municipalities.
In either case, having done their service to the housing bubble, they could ride out pensions to retirement.
But the collapse of housing markets is like a messy divorce: details of the bust-up emerge that might otherwise never have appeared.
Now Alex Penelas had been a prodigy of the Democratic party in Florida, even mentioned as high on the lists for candidate for Vice President. In Miami, the telegenic, youthful Cuban American had the full faith and support of the Latin Builders Association—the powerful industry group that runs permitting and zoning through designated elected officials.
The lobbyists Penelas empowered while mayor as conduits for county business—Rodney Barreto, Chris Korge, and Brian May—quickly became wealthy developers, riding the housing boom ignited by low interest rates, compliant regulators, and a clear mandate from the Republican legislature: “let a thousand housing subdivisions bloom”.
After the 2000 presidential election, Penelas fell off the face of the political map to seek a quieter life as a private attorney in Miami Lakes.
This week, Penelas’ name resurfaced in an article in the local weekly, Miami New Times, about the recent firing by Carlos Alvarez, the current mayor of Miami Dade county, of the county planning and zoning director, Diane O’Quinn Williams.
According to the New Times, an elected officials who asked to remain anonymous claims “O’Quinn Williams displayed favoritism for projects involving Miami Lakes-based land use consultant Reinaldo Villar. In 1998 Villar lost his high-profile county position as assistant director of permitting and zoning when he was arrested and charged with four felony counts of official misconduct for failing to disclose $62,000 in unexplained pay. A year later, prosecutors dropped the charges.”
Villar is partners with Alicio Pina, a real estate investor. According to New Times, “the two men are partners in A & R Investments… they share their Miami Lakes office with former Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas.”
Penelas was mayor in 1997, when Pina bought land around the county well field that is virtually surrounded by rock mining interests.
Pena and his partnership paid $76,000 for 26 acres, through a county tax sale. The deed wasn’t recorded, for some reason, until 2001. The average price per acre, about $3,000.
In 2005, an adjacent property sold for an average price of $312,000 per acre.
If there is a good explanation for what happened to the price of land, near the well fields in Miami Dade County, between 2001, when the Pena deed was recorded, and 2005, it awaits further investigation.
You can’t draw conclusions, just because the price of land bought by a politically connected person through a county tax sale increased 100 times in apparent value over a few years.
But there is one conclusion to reach. For all its palm trees, and breathless night life, Miami Dade County is a place of shadows.
Our traffic, underfunded schools, decrepid infrastructure are just the outward manifestation—as they are in so many other cities—of attention paid to personal gain by the powerful.
President George Bush calls it “the ownership society”, but as the housing boom unravels it is exposing a thousand stories that the mainstream media is having a hard time getting its hands around.
On Capitol Hill, Fed Chief Ben Berrnanke is assuring Congress that the damage to the subprime mortgage industry is contained.
But the market is doubtful and the market should know: it was the market, after all, that employed collateral mortgage obligations, a form of financial derivatives, like kindling to keep the fire burning.
The US economy is on the edge of a major recession because of excesses in lending that fueled land speculation and, in Florida, the biggest housing bubble in history.
So far, the blame—to the extent it is being ascribed in Congressional hearings—is on the outward manifestation of the problem: lax standards and regulation of exotic mortgages foisted on unwitting buyers, threatening to put millions of homes into foreclosure.
The real problem is what you can't see: the proliferation of financial derivatives, “structured financial products”, that have made Wall Street bankers so much money they have created their own housing bubble.
While the bubble expanded, the mainstream media sat by silently—grateful for the advertising revenue in real estate sections, and unwilling to jeopardize friendships and associations of senior executives with big downtown law firms, like Greenberg Traurig in Miami, that built major businesses from zoning and permitting work at the county and city.
All for the greater good of the building boom, and through the boom, a virtually untraceable network of shareholders hidden in shell corporations with interlocking interests all pointing in one direction: more development in more wetlands to satisfy the cravings for wealth, irrespective of social or environmental costs.
And it is still going on.
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6 comments:
As usual, great blog entry. Thanks for such active and insightful civic-mindedness (very un-Miami of you though).
But I still ask the following...
Isn't it possible that the housing bubble won't fully burst as predicted in Miami? While condo prices will certainly suffer, single-family homes may not (prices are still positive and there are far fewer price reductions today than many experts had predicted for early 2007).
Maybe all our manipulative developers, realtors, and greedy officials can collectively outsmart the so-called fundamentals and keep the real estate market afloat.
The sweeping theme of this blog is the backwardness of Miami-Dade, where realities of all sorts have been outsmarted many times before. So why not again with our housing market?
The only reason I ask these questions is because, to my eye, I do not see a housing crash in Miami. People say just wait, but they've been saying that for years. I understand market fundamentals make good sense in predicting a steep housing downturn, but they also made sense two years ago.
Dont' get me wrong, I'm a native and renter who would love to buy a house in Miami. I moved out of state and came back four years late to find $250,000 houses now selling for $550,000??!! Ha! While that makes me chuckle at a seller's nerve, some other guy/buyer is telling his broker to start negotiating. So what if that guy gets the house for $40,000 less than the asking price. That's still NOT a housing crash.
I'm just trying to stay realistic. Just because Tampa's market is getting beaten down doesn't mean Miami's will too. Remember, we're "special" in Miami.
Real estate markets are unique combos of local and macro economic factors. Who knows what will happen, however, now more than ever the factors for a big fall are in place. Again who knows, without the asset bubble in real estate there is little else really positive in the global economy for the USA. More likely nationally is that the fall will progress as more baby boomers retire and rely upon their home equity for savings.
The problem is that houses are not selling. There is a mathmatical explanation for why the median price has not changed very much. The houses that do sell seem to be in the million dollar plus range because these buyers are more resistant to inflated prices. But houses in the "average" category are selling poorly. It does not take many high priced home sales to push the median toward the high end. Prices have come down but the number of sales are so small that they have an insignificant effect on the "median".
"So why not again with our housing market?"
We are at the end of a very long running economic cycle, whose momentum has been kept aloft for the past six years by interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve and manipulation of statistics on the economy by the US Treasury and federal agencies.
The unreported inflation (and massive growth of income disparities between the low and upper end, reported yesterday to be the most extreme since the Great Depression) and housing market boom/crash cannot be addressed by simple interest rate cuts, as the markets are hoping.
In other words, the Fed has spent its ammunition over the past six years. The consumer is exhausted and stressed. That is Miami's story, too., though rarely reported that way.
Before house prices fall, inventories have to rise (which they are) and the number of transactions have to fall (as they have). In certain areas, mortgage foreclosures (subprime weaknesses leaking upwards toward prime) will eventually cause neighboring home prices to fall... it will happen. It is taking time.
In some respects, this is a slow motion housing market crash. And industry will continue to put the best spin on it, until they've run out of believers and/or easy credit.
Thanks for the comments!
So why not Miami? Ha! Ha Ha Ha! The crash has begun in Miami--all the unsold inventory and the 'for sale' signs everywhere are the first stage of a crash. !)Inventory piles up because people won't pay the asking price 2) The price goes down to an affordable level, then people will buy.
Now there are houses and condos with sighns on them for months. That means the asking price is too high.
Economics 101, amigo.
I just moved to Miami from Durham, NC. In Durham $300K buys you a nice mansion on 1+ acres 20-30 minutes from work. In Miami $300K buys you a shithole in the slums.
Right now I am renting a 2/2 for $1400/mo. The house is for sale @ $350K. If I would buy the house I am living in I would pay (assuming 20% down & 6%):
interest: 16800 (~11800 after tax write-off)
taxes: 7954 (looked it up on county web site ~5570 after write-off)
insurance: about $4500.-
loss of 5% interest on $70K downpayment after taxes about: $2450
That comes to around $2020/month. Repairs like a leaky roof, hurricane deductibles, broken HVAC system, etc. are extra. Repairs usually come in $10K increments.
So why would anybody in their right mind buy? If I put 20% down I expect to pay no more than what I am renting for. At bare ass minimum I'd guess prices have to decline 30-40% or rent has to go up 30-40% before that's the case. With all the new condos being build I'd say the chance of rent increasing is slim to none. Actually I might find something cheaper when my lease expires in December....crazy.
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