We're fascinated watching the South Florida Water Management District governing board struggle with the historic drought now unfolding in our region. The Miami Herald reports, today, "Water managers set to order stricter cuts."
Spend an hour to listen to the conference call organized by the National Environmental Trust in advance of next week's release of the second report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change.
Carol Wehle, district director, is quoted in the Miami Herald, "Just two weeks ago, no one could have predicted the precipitous water level drops we've seen recently." That is plain wrong.
If Ms. Wehle were honest, she would be talking about global warming and raise the issue of counties needing to halt development permits, as well as rationing water for lawns, until consumptive use by counties and municipalities adjust for chronic drought conditions.
Even without global warming, the population of Florida has risen faster than that capacity of natural rainfall cycles to respond with elasticity to the demands of burgeoning urban areas and agriculture.
With global warming, you can throw all the equations of accommodating endless growth, right out the window. In Miami-Dade County, this has implications for the soon-to-be-released South Miami Dade Watershed Study because functional watersheds during drought is doubly important (but you'll never get the farmers to agree who want to sell their land now for tract housing--despite the housing crash.)
It is ironic water managers might be hoping for a wet hurricane to refill Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades (where our drinking water comes from), but in the long term, the water managers know that extreme weather events will not deliver South Florida from chronic drought associated with temperature extremes. (That is one of the points raised by climate scientists: because of abnormally high temperatures, extreme rainfall will not recharge aquifers.)
These days the news is filled with optimistic farmers in the Midwest shifting crop production massively to corn to meet the surging demand for biofuel like ethanol, championed by President Bush.
The corn price is surging, as a result. But global warming also predicts highly unstable growing conditions in the Midwest--including historic drought.
The scientists tell us that environmental changes are piling up much more quickly than consensus predicted even five years ago. The release of the IPCC report, for regions, is scheduled on April 10th.
Based on conditioned behavior, we'd guess local elected officials will die of thirst before they even begin talking about a building moratorium.
But that doesn't stop us from asking the question: at what point, will there be a discussion about a building moratorium in South Florida? and how much power, by the way, will be required to pump water to the top floors of all those brand-new condominiums now topping off without tenants, on Brickell Avenue?
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And Florida won't be affected by sea-level rise????
SYDNEY (AFP) - Australia will suffer more droughts, fires, floods and storms due to global warming and its famous Great Barrier Reef will be devastated by 2030, according to leaked extracts Friday of a UN report.
The draft UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report warns that temperatures in Australia would rise by 6.7 degrees Celsius before the end of the century, the ABC and Sydney Morning Herald reported.
The report, due to be released on April 6, said rising temperatures would cause more intense bushfires and lead to deaths from heatwaves.
It also predicted rising sea levels would push the coast back 110 metres (yards) in some Sydney beachside suburbs, swamping some of the city's most exclusive real estate.
Wednesday the County Commission approved Master Plan changes to convert more acres of farmland to 10 units to the acre. The property is down south by Robert Is Here. The State DCA said no; no water, no roads, don't do it! But the ever water-conscious County Commission said, hell yes! Until our commissioners stop pandering to the construction industry, we are in for a long draught.
And here is more bad news from NOAA
DESPITE RECORD COLD START, APRIL TEMPERATURE NEAR AVERAGE FOR U.S.,
Global April Surface Temperature Third Warmest on Record
NOAA image of April 2007 statewide temperature rankings.May 16, 2007 — The contiguous U.S. temperature for April 2007 overall held to near average, while the surface temperature was third warmest on record globally, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. April began with a record cold outbreak that stretched from the Plains to the Southeast, bringing widespread crop and forest damage. Drier-than-average conditions in the Southeast led to worsening drought conditions, while a strong Nor'easter brought severe flooding to parts of the Northeast. (Click NOAA image for larger view of April 2007 statewide temperature rankings. Please credit “NOAA.”)
U.S. Temperature Highlights
For the contiguous U.S., April's average temperature was 51.7 degrees F (10.9 degrees C), which was only 0.3 degrees F (0.2 degrees C) below the 20th century mean (based on preliminary data).
The record cold outbreak from April 4 to 10, produced crop losses that could reach into the billions of dollars, according to agricultural experts. Approximately 1,200 daily low temperature records were set during the 7-day period.
According to the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, the cold snap killed vegetation and reduced tree leaf area causing more of the sun's energy to be used for heating the atmosphere instead of evaporating water from vegetation. Such impacts can result in warmer air temperatures and less moisture in the atmosphere in a region where drought conditions already exist.
Alaska had its fourth warmest April on record, with a temperature 5.96 degrees F (3.3 degrees C) above the 1971-2000 average.
Cooler-than-average April temperatures in the eastern U.S. helped increase residential energy needs for the nation. Using the Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI—an index developed at NOAA to relate energy usage to climate), the nation's residential energy demand was approximately 1.5 percent higher than what would have occurred under average climate conditions for the month.
NOAA image of April 2007 statewide precipitation rankings.U.S. Precipitation Highlights
The contiguous U.S. was drier than average in April. Abnormally dry conditions were widespread throughout the Southeast and Pacific Northwest, while much wetter-than- average conditions stretched from Maine to New Jersey. (Click NOAA image for larger view of April 2007 statewide precipitation rankings. Please credit “NOAA.”)
The wetness in the Northeast resulted from a strong Nor'easter that impacted the East Coast from April 15 to 17. Heavy rainfall triggered flooding in areas of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. New York City had its second-rainiest day ever, with 7.57 inches April 15.
Drier-than-average conditions persisted across much of the Southeast. Precipitation for the first four months of the year was less than 50 percent of average in some areas, and severe drought stretched from western North Carolina and Tennessee to southern Mississippi by late in the month, with extreme drought affecting much of northern Alabama.
Extreme drought in southern Georgia led to reports of the largest wildfire on record for the state.
The water year (July 1-June 30) in Los Angeles continued to be the driest on record and severe-to-extreme drought stretched from the southern California coast to Arizona and north along the Sierra Nevada Mountains, where seasonal snowpack was less than 50 percent of average.
Global Highlights
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for April was the third warmest on record (1.21 degrees F/0.67 degrees C above the 20th century mean). The global surface temperature for the combined January-April period was the warmest on record.
Separately, the global April land-surface temperature was the warmest on record. Elevated monthly mean temperatures—more than 5 degrees F (3 degrees C) above average—covered large parts of Asia and Western Europe. The April ocean-surface temperature tied for seventh warmest in the 128-year period of record as neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions persisted in the equatorial Pacific.
During the past century, global surface temperatures have increased at a rate near 0.11 degrees F (0.06 degrees C) per decade, but the rate of increase has been three times larger since 1976, or 0.32 degrees F (0.18 degrees C) per decade, with some of the largest temperature increases occurring in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is celebrating 200 years of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the 1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
Relevant Web Sites
NOAA Climate of 2007: April in Historical Perspective
NOAA National Climatic Data Center
Media Contact:
John Leslie, NOAA Satellite and Information Service, (301) 713-1265
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