Shifting baselines, by gimleteye

These photos, from Florida Wildlife Federation, tell the long and sad story of "shifting baselines" in Florida. Any one of our Miami readers--if they have the opportunity--can put on a face mask and snorkel in Biscayne Bay and see the same result. A few weeks ago, I showed you how this looks in the Florida Keys.

What are shifting baselines? Here are a few more examples.

There was a chance to protect our "baselines" many decades ago when experts began shouting about the costs of unlimited growth. Their voices were drowned out by the Chambers of Commerce, the builders, developers, Big Ag and their army of consultants and lawyers and lobbyists.

Here is how I define shifting baselines: over time, and in the absence of laws and regulations strong enough to protect the public commons, the quality of what we value changes hue until, after a period of time, the very soul of what we value transmorgrifies into something indescribable-- and finally, we are persuaded that the original color did not exist and that its disappearance is of no consequence.

And so shifting baselines is not only about the environment. It is about the step-by-step transformation of democracy because the rules of engagement in political elections are weighted toward accepting shifting baselines as a de facto standard.

That is what the pictures show.

Still more on Jorge Perez's Affordable Housing Loft 1 by Geniusofdespair

Takes hours to search this stuff out...am tired have been at all morning. This is a continuation of previous post Loft 1. Remember: The purpose of the $2,000,000 we chipped in to this development was to provide affordable, workforce housing. It was so that firefighters, hospital workers, teachers, sanitation workers, etc. could afford to live downtown. That was the goal.

The reality is not anywhere near the goal. No guidelines were in place, no strings were attached to the money we gave. So we subsidized investors and flippers who cashed in (or they are collecting rent). It is highly unusual for a condo not to have residency requirements. Most condos I have lived in have a one or two year waiting period before you can lease out a unit. Since this Loft 1's goal was residents, not transients, they should have at least had a one year if not two year waiting period. That discourages transients. However, it would seem since a lot these people are not living there, many must have renters in them (and the eviction document I found, noted in the last post, proves that).

Here is some background on the people who actually bought the affordable units (see both posts).

Tamara bought an apartment 1/04/06 for $202,000 however she lived on Collins Avenue. She sold loft property 2/20/07 for $248,000.

Ricardo A. paid $205,000 1/04/06. He owns 3 properties and takes his Homestead exemption in Kendall. Paid $666,000 total for all three properties.

Carlos C. paid $158,000 1/04/06. Seems to own a lot of properties, does not take a homestead exemption at the loft.

Arminda bought a unit 1/04/06 for $185,00 and took out an interest only mortgage. Owns three properties recently bought. Gives one as a legal address on City Clerk documents - not the Loft address. Her total purchases were $838,000. In 2003 there were foreclosures for a person with this name. Do not know if it is the same person.

Many of these people seem to not indicate on their mortgages that this is a second home when it obviously is.

The Miami Dade County Commission wastes more of our money and the natives are getting restless! By Geniusofdespair

In an article in the Miami Herald, reporter Chuck Rabin reported that Miami Dade County has decided to sue the State over an incorporation fee ban that the State imposed on the county. I wouldn't care, except they are using our tax money to sue the State.

Mayor of Palmetto Bay Eugene Flinn was quoted saying: "I think everybody's frustrated with the County Commission." Ya think?

Mild mannered State Rep. Julio Robaina said, with less tact, regarding our County Commission's vote: "They're out of control." He was so angry he threatened to do another statewide referendum to repeal our home rule charter which doles out the power to the Commission.

Maybe it isn't such a bad idea this time to repeal it.

The fight between State and County is over whether more affluent cities should be paying multi million dollar fees to the County over years to get the right to incorporate (get out from under the control of the County). I would suppose it is also a punishment for 'Cherry Picking' the City borders. Less affluent areas are sometimes not included. Don't really know why the County charges the fee to a fledgling City. Extortion?

Anyway, citizen unrest is alive and well: Everywhere. Just look at what Florida International University focus group participant, Wendy Stephan of Buena Vista, said:

"I was amazed at the absolute fury of the other group members, none of whom were activists in any sense, most of them condo residents themselves.  This random group of voters could not have been more disgusted with our local political leaders and their complete failure to implement even basic standards of urban planning.  Taking part in this focus group really gave me the courage to keep fighting."

Rebecca Wakefield of the SunPost in the article Water Worlds said about this focus group:

"One of the researchers, Marcos Feldman, told me they were trying to get a sense of what people in different neighborhoods and economic classes of Miami were thinking about development. While there were many different issues and opinions expressed, Feldman said there was “a striking convergence of opinion that crossed socio-economic lines.” Regardless of background, these voters felt excluded by the development process and disappointed in the accountability of their local government in protecting their interests."

P.S. Rebecca Sosa voted with Katy Sorenson and Carlos Gimenez against the lawsuit. Pepe Diaz had to vote with them or it would have been political suicide for him (Doral is in his district and it is one of the cities that wants the fee dropped). But what I was going to say is, Rebecca hasn't been bad...She often is the swing vote, I think of her as the Sandra Day O'Connor of the commission.

From Nouriel Roubini's blog-- worth reading-- gimleteye

Falling Remittances from the U.S. to Latin America as Evidence of the Housing Slump

Nouriel Roubini | Apr 23, 2007
Last week this blog interpreted the mystery of the apparent lack of fall of housing jobs in the official US statistics - in spite of a fall in housing starts of over 30% - as being partly due to layoffs of undocumented and illegal workers in the housing sector.

As reported today in the Wall Street Journal there is now evidence - coming from research by Walter Molano at BCP Securities - that remittances to Latin America from the U.S. are significantly falling signaling that documented and undocumented workers with families in Latin America are now suffering because of the housing slump. As reported by Molano:

The rapid slowdown of the U.S. housing sector could have dangerous implications for Latin America and the other emerging market countries that depend on remittances for their balance of payment needs.

Remittances became important a few years ago, when they began to eclipse other forms of capital flows, such as foreign direct investment, multilateral assistance and loans. In 2005, the World Bank estimated that the total level of money sent home by immigrants from emerging market countries was $223 billion. In 2006, Latin America received $62 billion in remittances, of which 75% was from the U.S. The multilaterals and Latin American governments were ecstatic about the increase in remitted funds. They attributed the inflows to changes in regulatory framework, the proliferation of financial transfer networks and a reduction in transfer costs. Some Central American governments issued long-term bonds, modeling their balance of payments on the steady increase in remitted funds. However, few people bothered to realize that much of the generated money was a result of the large increase in U.S. home construction and associated services. A jaunt around most U.S. construction sites revealed a cacophony of Spanish and Portuguese accents, along with a sea of Latino food vending cars. Latin American electricians, masons, painters, carpenters, plumbers and landscapers thrived as North American homeowners used second mortgages to modernize their dwellings. Unfortunately, everything that goes up must come down—and the decline in the U.S. housing market has dangerous implications for some emerging market countries.

A look at the remittance data and U.S. housing starts reveals a worrisome correlation. Regressing panel data provided by the IMF on annual remittances to Latin America against annual U.S. housing starts shows a high degree of correlation between 1997and 2005. The panel data consists of 15 countries, and the correlation was higher than 90% in 12 of the cases. The outlier was Paraguay, which had a negative correlation of .03%. This was not too surprising, given that most Paraguayan immigrants head off to Argentina. Unfortunately, Argentina suffered a severe crisis during the sample years, explaining the massive decline in Paraguayan remittances. Although the conclusions were fascinating, the sample sets had a small N (number of observations). Therefore, we decided to examine another sample set. Banco de Mexico has monthly remittance data through February 2007, and the fit was remarkable. Monthly remittances peaked in May 2006, at the same time that housing starts reached their zenith. However, the decline in remittances is occurring at a faster pace than the drop in housing starts, falling 26% from the peak. This is logical, given that Mexican immigrants will harbor their savings as they see job opportunities evaporate. The implication of these results is that some Latin American countries could see pressure on their current account balances, despite the increase in commodity prices. The contraction in remittances will dampen domestic consumption and hamper GDP growth rates. Countries which are extremely dependent on remittances, such as Mexico, Colombia and the Central American states, could see weaker exchange rates as transfers decline. The problems in the U.S. housing sector could have dire implications for home construction activity in Europe and the Middle East. This could affect emerging market countries in North Africa, as well as Pakistan and the Philippines, which also depend on remittances to cover their balance of payment requirements.

This is one more piece of strong evidence that official US employment statistics do not properly capture the loss of housing jobs that has accompanied the most severe housing recession in decades.

Florida Power and Light, for shame by gimleteye

Every single component of Florida’s destructive growth machine is on view in the struggle by FPL and citizens whether or not to build a new coal fired power plant at the edge of the dying Lake Okeechobee in Glades County.

It is a demonstration project: how the economic elite team up with local mainstream media to perpetuate false Chamber of Commerce values—that all expanded tax base is good and when it is bigger, better.

The liar’s miracle of expanded tax base has turned Florida into an old painted whore who can still pass for pretty in certain rural communities that are desperate to be like the big city.

Oh yes, we can already hear the howling complaints: "we just want jobs for our children".

One step at a time, drained aquifers, degraded springs, choked infrastructure, burning fires surrounding islands of the natural world defended as arks by environmentalists, all ringed by a polluted coastline: this is the frame for "jobs for our children".
Damn if you don’t need a Hazmat suit just to protect yourself from news stories like this one, from the Glades County Democrat.

“A group of local citizens has organized in support of a power plant. Citizens Power Coalition is a local organization made up of residents from Glades and Hendry counties who are pushing to help FPL’s proposal to build a power plant near Moore Haven. The group organized about six months ago when some residents began to feel that the power plant would be a positive beginning for the inevitable growth of rural Glades County.”

What the Glades County Democrat doesn’t say is that the citizens group is organized by the Miami public relations firm, Wragg and Casas, funded by Florida Power and Light.

In a letter to the editor, Rhonda Roff—an indomitable foe of the power plant—writes, “Knowing that the Power Coalition is funded by FPL and orchestrated by Wragg and Casas, the public relations firm that has done more harm to the Everglades than any other, I cannot understand what Nena Bolan (the writer) was thinking, or why her editors did not see this failure to understand the English language!”

Indeed, Wragg and Casas is the spin machine for the sugar industry.

The sugar industry itches for zoning and permitting to build suburban tract housing in the Everglades Agricultural Area. Its dominance of the mechanics of water management in Florida assured that Lake Okeechobee would turn into a cesspit, that Florida’s estuaries would be ruined on not one but two coasts, and that drinking water for millions of South Floridians would depend on a system designed to optimized sugar production but leave rate payers vulnerable to drought.

Whenever the status quo of water management in South Florida is called into question, Wragg and Casas arrive like the fire brigade—whether it is pressuring US Senators to preserve the vast profitability of the Farm Bill, or, turning out middle schoolers or church go’ers, or, persuading county commissions to let a little sun shine into its plans for suburbia in the Everglades—Wragg and Casas is walking point.

The Glades County Democrat reports on opposition by “environmental activists” like Rhonda Roff but spins the article like a Wragg and Casas press release: “… there are some, including the parents in Glades County who do not want their children to leave the area in search of jobs…” and “many people support the project… because of the estimated $21 million in annual tax benefits to Glades county and several million for Hendry county.”

Wragg and Casas is just doing its job.

In Miami, Joanna Wragg was a senior editor of the Knight Ridder Miami Herald and mightily contributed to the Big Sugar aura as an immoveable placeholder in the Everglades.

Additionally, sugar’s retainers with virtually every big downtown law firm in Miami assured no criticism of sugar would ever leak out of Florida’s largest county to Tallahassee, or, to Washington.

Rhonda Roff’s letter to the editor “outs” the fake citizens group, calling it an example of “astroturfing”: “The goal of (astroturfing) is to disguise the agenda of a client as an independent public reaction to some political entity.” Indeed.

Cooked coral reefs, dead hooded Arctic seal in a Florida waterway, disappearing bees, drought, fire—with carbon dioxide levels approaching levels not seen for 600,000 years and racing higher, what Florida needs is a tough conservation program that pushes the electric utilities into line, with clear incentives based on reducing energy—and not investment in a single new coal-fired power plant, no matter how “clean”.

We would like to think that the world is capable of adjusting to the threats of global warming, but if the Miami-Dade county commission won’t whisper a word about reconciling development patterns with a serious drought, and if Glades county elected officials are determined to sell its citizens the same Chamber of Commerce version of liar’s poker that has pummeled Florida—what hope is there for the future?

It is a shame: Florida Power and Light understands perfectly well the nature of the challenge to humanity, by global warming. One of its divisions is the largest producer of wind energy in the nation. The company is staffed by engineers and experts who can parse the difference in regulatory policies in every state in the nation.

What it is doing in Glades county is simply pushing its own corporate agenda—shareholder profits—to the edge of what is practical, including the same spin machinery that has had a devastating impact on Florida.

It is hard to reach any other conclusion: the way Florida Power and Light is slamming its coal-fired power plant into Glades County, Florida, is a frightful indicator that society will not curb greed and avarice in time to beat back the impacts of global warming.

Funding for Museum in City of Miami Park Pulled from Agenda Today by Geniusofdespair

The Museum funding request for new digs in Bicentennial Park was pulled from the City Agenda. It is deferred till next month.
Type the rest of the post here

NOW you tell me? by gimleteye

How seriously local and state water managers view the drought in Florida can be glimpsed through today's Miami Herald story about the lens of salt water pushing into drinking water wells along the coast.

South Florida's shallow water aquifer, under hydraulic pressure from the vast expanse of Everglades, holds back the intrusion of salt water through Florida's porous limestone. As the Everglades and the aquifers dry out, salt water seeps in, a phenomenon that began with the draining of the Everglades and is now rapidly accelerating.

Developers have been driven to flights of fancy through the biggest construction boom in Florida history. They scoff at the notion that construction should be curtailed. What would bring about such a catastrophe? Not enough water.

There is a connection between the drought, planning initiatives that are throttled by the building lobby (like the South Miami-Dade Watershed Study), and the constant pressure to change zoning and speed permits by such powerful downtown law firms like Greenberg Traurig.

Florida is burning and its aquifers are draining. And, in the midst of the biggest housing market crash since 1926, the development lobby is still pressing forward in the only way it knows how to: more zoning changes and more building permits.

As we have frequently noted, overdevelopment of South Florida has stripped the elasticity from supply and demand of fresh water to millions of Floridians—supply from the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee and demand from big agriculture and cities.

Restoring the elasticity means providing more surface water storage. That’s the ‘service’ nature used to provide in the Everglades until water managers ditched and diked it, decades ago, and allowed massive fresh water withdrawals whose consequence is severe drought in a region that averages more than fifty inches of rain a year.

In Miami-Dade County, it would seem obvious that it is a very bad time for the development lobby to be yammering for more zoning changes and more permits for large scale developments in farmland, especially land outside the Urban Development Boundary.

But building in farmland is the model that drives county government--here, and in the rest of Florida--, the same way that building condominiums drives the city of Miami.

On May 4th Goldman Sachs released a report, “Florida—The Epicenter of the US Housing Bust”.

“Although the housing downturn has long featured prominently in our call for US economic weakness, we do not expect it to cause an outright recession. But there is at least one state—namely Florida—where the housing downturn is likely to cause an outright recession.”

The irony of high rise condos topping off the Miami skyline, funded by speculators likely to run away from their deposits, at the very same moment water is running out is biblical.

“Our analysis implies that businesses with significant sales in Florida could encounter problems for an extended period of time. Moreover, Florida could be a ‘canary in the coal mine’ for other regions of the world economy that have recently seen runaway housing and construction booms.”

On Monday at the county commission, there was not a hint—not even a scent—that local elected officials were taking into account the drought, or, crashing housing markets.

A majority of Miami-Dade county commissioners, led by Natacha Seijas, had been poised to kill the study meant to insure that there would be enough water, in the future, to accommodate growth and protect Biscayne Bay.

The county commission is supporting more than a billion dollars of public investment in new drinking water infrastructure that taps into the Floridan—a much deeper aquifer than the fresh-water bearing Biscayne Aquifer, replenished by the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee. (Floridians will rue the day that the federal government, through the US EPA, delegated authority for managing the Biscayne Aquifer to the State of Florida.)

But destroying the aquifer that you can see and measure above ground (that would be the sole source Biscayne Aquifer), in favor of a deep, underground aquifer that may or may not be plentiful enough for future needs—is idiocy on a grand scale.

The Floridan may contain vast quantities of brackish, prehistoric water (it is also the layer where trillions of gallons of municipal and county wastewater is leaking, but that’s another story). But exploiting the Floridan could turn out to be a very expensive pipe dream. It will take years to fund and build adequate infrastructure.

In the meantime, pray for rain. Pray that sanity rushes in, and not salt water.

Goldman Sachs writes: “Florida has the largest amount of excess housing supply in America. … the reason for the record supply-demand imbalance is that housing starts in Florida have been far in excess of underlying demographic demand for several years. As of 2006, we estimate that the housing stock was growing roughly twice as fast as the population.”

Of course, in Miami-Dade County we know first-hand that what Goldman Sachs prints is true. All we have to do is go outside and look around: we have watched the scamming for decades. The Miami mayor, city commission, and the majority of the county commission justify one zoning change after another in favor of developer/campaign contributors like addicts rationalizing whatever they need for their next fix.

And don't forget the Florida legislature in Tallahassee, an extension of the farmer/builder lobby that has spent the past eight years insulating the Florida constitution from citizens, creating a virtual fortress to protect the prerogatives of suburban sprawl.

Here in Miami, consultants and engineers, with maps showing demographic surges, shortage of land, various obstructions to building densities in areas already served by municipal services—are no different from lobbyists for the tobacco industry that persuaded the states and Congress that cigarette smoking was not harmful to public health.

The ownership of a platted subdivision or a condominium in downtown Miami can go through receivership, or not, can be sold or re-sold, can be purchased by a hedge fund, a vulture fund, or money launderers. Some builders can get rich or lose their fortunes.

Once the concrete pad is poured, the landscape is permanently altered.

Once the cement hardens, every argument about 'mitigation' is moot. In the absence of precaution, wisdom, or caring for the public good, what happens next is almost as certain as death and taxes.

And here is the consequence in Florida: “The potential for large house price declines is also greater in Florida than just about anywhere else in the country. Prices in the major metropolitan areas have risen further than anywhere else since 2000, even compared with erstwhile boom cities such as Los Angeles or Las Vegas.”

“… house prices would have to fall by over 40 percent to get back to fair value immediately.”

“… businesses with significant sales in Florida could see problems for an extended period of time. This is most obvious for the homebuilding industry but is likely to extend to retailers and other businesses that rely significantly on state demand. … Florida may be the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for other regions that have recently seen runaway housing booms.”

Goldman Sachs also writes, “At this point, a Florida recession is still a forecast, not a fact.” The investment bank expects indexes to turn negative before the end of 2007.

We estimate that the county commission will begin talking about rescuing the building industry with incentives and more streamlined permitting around the same time.

More on Jorge Perez's Affordable Loft One: By Geniusofdespair

This "workforce" affordable housing scam has got to stop. It is a fraud in the way it is administered.

I agree with Jorge Perez on Loft One when he says in a Letter to the Editor today in the Miami Herald:

"In retrospect, both the developer and the public sector should have put more income and time restrictions on re-sales to avoid speculation and profiteering. As in all affordable jobs, there are lessons to be learned and room for improvement."
"...If the system had cracks that produced unintended consequences, let's work together to close those loopholes."

I don't blame the developer as much as what he politely calls the "Public Sector." The public sector is the City of Miami and Miami Dade County. They should have imposed restrictions BEFORE they forked over our hard earned dough: $2,000,000. Let's face it, a developer is not going to look out for our best interests. Ever.

There shouldn't be cracks. Anyone without a noodle for a brain could have figured out the loopholes BEFORE the condo's were up for sale. Greenberg Trauig attorney Clifford Shulman is a master at figuring out loopholes. Just ask the City of Sunny Isles. He could have sniffed out every loophole for the County and the City of Miami in two minutes. Do some good with that skill, Clifford!

Why, Jorge, did the county and city employees get first dibbs on the apartments?

I took a quick look at the public records on the earliest buyers:

Irain Gonzalez, is he the Chief of Operations for the City of Miami? He paid $128,83 for his unit however he doesn’t live there. He took his 2005 and 2006 homestead at another address.

Rolgues _____ is a award winning (and purse winning) poker player, if he is the same one who purchased an apartment for $205,900. He took his homestead for 2005 and 2006 at another address near the Venetian Causeway.

A guy named Alejandro ____ bought in 12/05 owns 3 other properties in excess of a million dollars.

A person first name Naeem ___, President of a mortgage company, bought one at the Loft for $125,900 December '05. In May ‘06 she/he was having a tenant evicted at that address. It would appear it was rented out immediately. Was there no one or two year living requirement? Most condo's have those. Naeem does not take a homestead exemption at the Loft address.

Not even a residency clause Jorge? That is your fault.

"The Donald" with Our Jorge by Geniusofdespair

Our own homegrown billionaire Jorge Perez with "The Donald": Wannabe billionaire. Couldn't resist posting the photo op. Jorge has been in the news a lot lately. Maybe they will fashion a TV show around him. Instead of saying "Your'e Fired!" he could say: "Higher!"

Update on Johnny Winton by Geniusofdespair

Johnny Winton: TRIAL HEARING SCHEDULED FOR 06/18/2007 AT 09:00.

From A, to B, to C... by gimleteye

“Kentward C. Forbes, aka Ken Forbes, was notified by the Florida Elections Commission that there is probable cause that he has committed five counts of violating Chapter 106 of the Florida Statutes. Forbes was the driving force in a failed attempt to recall Dr. Pat Wade, a sitting member of Community Council 14, the Redland Zoning Board.”

That’s from the Redland Country News. Not necessarily a paper you pick up ever day, but a story worth recounting nonetheless.

The Redland is an area of Miami-Dade County that is severely threatened by the over-development pattern of suburban sprawl that wrecked Kendall, slightly to the north and in the western suburbs of Miami. At stake is hundreds of millions in property value locked up by zoning outside the Urban Development Boundary.

As a vocal and persuasive opponent of more suburban sprawl in platted subdivisions on farmland, Wade has incurred the enmity of big farmer/developers and their allies on the county commission, lead by the de facto chair of the county commission, Natacha Seijas.

Pat Wade was one of the leaders of the 2005/2006 campaign to recall Seijas, the first election recall since 1972. Seijas defeated the recall handily, raising hundreds of thousands of dollars from the development lobby.

On Spanish language television, Seijas said her enemies were ‘anti-Cuban’. “These are a bunch of racists from South Dade who don’t want us in power. They want everything for themselves. People really need to be careful about opening their doors. They will do anything, including lie to you about being my friend, to get your signature.”

To Miami New Times, Seijas said that the leaders of the recall effort against her were “people I despise.” In retaliation, Seijas' supporters organized the campaign to recall Wade from the community zoning board.

Redland Country News reports, “On October 6, 2006, Florida Elections Commission Investigator Keith Smith was conducting a phone interview about irregularities in Forbes’ financial reports when Forbes told Smith that he had decided not to provide any further information. Forbes was subsequently subpoenaed for his deposition. At his deposition, Forbes testified that he did not know the individuals involved with his committee. He stated that committee members did not want to be identified. Forbes said that in December, 2005, “A” approached him about starting the committee to recall Wade. Forbes subsequently obtained from DeGrandy P.A. a $500 contribution. Forbes testified that he would call “A” who would call “B” who called “C” for a conference call. Forbes stated that he could not remember when the meetings were held or what was discussed.”

(For more information reference cases FEC-06-206, FEC06-334 and FEC 06-403 at Florida Elections Commission, 107 West Gaines Street, Collins Bldg., Suite 224, Tallahassee, FL 32399-150.)

The questionable use of political action committees in Miami-Dade County includes efforts to defeat the strong mayor referendum in 2006, a measure that Commissioner Seijas strongly opposed. In that election, political action committees opposed to Mayor Alvarez used race-baiting mailers that should also be the focus of a FEC investigation.

Another Mortgage Broker Bites the Dust by Geniusofdespair

I left my doctor’s office and while waiting for the elevator saw a yellow sign on a door. It was an eviction notice: Court Case 07570cc24. The sign on the side of the door: First Universal Mortgage Brokers. Couldn’t find the Corporation named, nor could I find any activity so I looked up the Case Number. It is: First Universal Network, Inc. It was some guy in New York, the Corporation was dissolved in 2004.

Good luck in getting your back rent building owner.

Miami Today: Unfair Press Before an Election? by Geniusofdespair

First let me say I like North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns very much and congratulate him on his win yesterday. However, for “Miami Today” to feature him, including a big picture on the cover above the fold, of the May 3rd issue (with a 2 page story) under a caption which said: “The Achiever” seems unfair to his opponent. Was that an editorial Michael Lewis or was that an incredibly well-timed news story for an incumbent’s campaign?

All I ask: We should be fair to challengers.

Another day in paradise by gimleteye

At the county commission on Monday afternoon, daggers were drawn at the South Miami Dade Watershed Study. Then, they were put back in their sheaths.

The Watershed Study, long anticipated, long held out as a sign, a totem, a symbol, a Rorsach test for developers, farmers, and environmentalists, the Watershed Study, finally on the commission agenda, though it was discussed in specifics not at all, though not one of its 68 recommendations to ameliorate or upset, to solve, or dissolve--not one specific was discussed about the plan, roadmap, cypher to a better Miami-Dade County.

The Study had not even been reviewed by the Natacha Seijas Government Operations and Environment Subcommittee. Weeks ago the Study was acccepted and proposed as a resolution with no discussion, no controversy, no mention of dark dealings and language changes and poison pills inserted craftily.

Now County commissioner Carlos Gimenez signaled the displeasure spreading among fellow commissioners, though still a minority, how the appearance of Seijas’ positive resolution had been crafted out of sight with a little poisonous pill slipped in, as though no one were paying attention to the alteration.

Many were paying attention. The whispering had spread. Where to? To Tallahassee? To Washington? Plainly, there had been an escalation of consequences that did not serve the majority purpose well.

Natacha Seijas amended her resolution and withdrew the offensive “whereas”. Just like that, the poisonous pill disappeared into ether.

Then one at a time, the rebellious minority on the county commission leveled their gaze and appreciation to all the citizens who had spent years as “advisory” to the consultants. So did Seijas, who seemed squeamish as though she had food poisoning.

At moments like these, you are not sure whether you are watching a performance by actors who garble their lines on purpose, with language that scarcely fits the subject, (transcribed on video monitors suspended from the ceiling, the language veers wierdly from sense to senseless and back-- one can easily imagine that if a live person were doing the translation, that they would be certifiably out of their minds as an occupational hazard or job requirement) or whether events like this prove the purpose of Kabuki theater: ritualized from the dais, from the podium speakers appear on chamber video screens like characters on daytime TV--predictable to a letter for not the first time and not the last--though the outcome was a little surprise: Seijas and her majority did not kill the Watershed Study outright.

Seijas' footsoldiers on the commission seemed bemused by the weighing of consequences. Tilted back in their oversized chairs, or, on the phone: this matter was not their business.

Certainly, if the bared daggers had been slipped into the Study, as she had said they would be, there would be ramifications. Mayor Carlos Alvarez was watching the drama from TV.

At the end of the day, the gathered forces of the majority opted for a strategic retreat. In other places, their divisions are assembling: a plan by Ed Easton and Lennar to apply for zoning changes outside the Urban Development Boundary in order to put a small city to the west of Kendall, along a future transportation corridor that addresses not a whit the complaint of hundreds of thousands of commuters inside the Urban Development Boundary. Smaller assaults on the Urban Development Boundary, again, by Lowes and by a few others.

None of these would have been well-served by an outright killing in plain view. And so the daggers were sheathed. The lobbying class fled the proceedings darkly.

From the dais, there was no mention—not a word—of the severe drought conditions in Florida, or of a miserable housing market that has turned all the dreams of housing in farmland into vacant houses in subdivisions.

Someone has gotten rich. Someone is waiting to get rich. And someone is always balancing what to say from the county commission dais against what is needed to raise campaign cash, or favors, or trips to Cancun or the Bahamas, Paris, Africa, wherever.

But the bottom line was not the encomiums for the environment or Biscayne Bay.

It was the certainty, expressed by Seijas, that when the planning department returns months and years hence with recommendations to amend the county development master plan based on 68 separate issues defined by the watershed study consultants as worthy of review, those recommendations will be “shredded” by the county commission.

Shredded. We kid you not. After delivering the Study to the planning department with baby powder and a soft pat, Seijas offered the word—aptly chosen—as a promise. She meant to kill the watershed study. Just not today.

What Natacha Seijas Actually Said by Geniusofdespair

“In no way should we forget about the coastal wetlands needs. In no way should we forget that we have target lands that need to be protected."

"I don’t think we need to forget we also are charged with and should have the moral and political need to protect Biscayne Bay and the Everglades."

"I don’t think any of this wipes that out. I think that is a desire of consciousness and a desire to do good government and would never stop us in any way. I think once it is accepted it need to be shredded a little bit to see the good, the bad and indifferent and try to move on it. I am sure we will.”

She then said something like:
This is the product of a consulting firm, that is how the people who stood in front of us us saw it and I saw it myself. I think it is time to move on, we need to look at the whole county so we can respond to the needs that come in front of us. SORRY I GOT TIRED OF WATCHING HER TALK, THE FIRST HALF IS EXACT.

Okay I Was dead wrong! by Geniusofdespair

In an upset of my mental stability, Natacha Seijas actually said nice things about the environment!! She talked about preserving the Bay and the Everglades. I AM IN SHOCK. I have to reevaluate my belief system. Maybe the trip to Africa transformed Natacha. Then it was worth the money to send her there.

Anyway, all went well they accepted the Watershed Study with no caveats and NATACHA herself took out her whereas poison pill. Could have been because Gimenez was going to pull it.

What this all means? The Planning Dept. now can use components of the study in their work, probably other benefits but I don't know them.

I am including photos I took off my TV set. I was too lazy to go since there was no public comment allowed. I was laying in bed so my foot was in a lot of my camera phone photos. Love this phone. And I will say this with great difficulty: Thank you Natacha.

(correction of photo - I feel like the Herald - that was Jamie Furgang).

Natacha Seijas doesn’t “do” parks or drinking water, she does “development” by gimleteye

It’s too bad the Miami Herald hasn’t weighed in on the item buried in today’s county commission agenda, with a 2:00PM “time certain” at County Hall: approval of the South Miami Dade Watershed Plan. Turn on your TV, or go to the commission, or watch on the internet .

“Approval” of the watershed plan would be good, you might think. In this case, you would be wrong: as now proposed the resolution contains a poison pill meant to kill it.

The three year study, costing nearly $4 million dollars, lays out the case for accomodating future development until 2025 within existing service areas and municipalities and not moving the Urban Development Boundary. That is why it has attracted the ire of Seijas’ key supporters—the builders, developers, land speculators/farmers, and lobbyists who control the majority of the county commission through the outsized influence of campaign contributions. They also own land outside the Urban Development Boundary.

It is too bad the Miami Herald does not spend more energy connecting the dots for its readers. How Seijas is trying to kill the watershed study should be a front page story. Too often, the stories involving the consequences of government bowing to special interests are not told, or, buried in the Neighbors section like last Saturday's (“The growing YMCA soccer program in South Miami is plagued by a shortage of good-quality available fields to play on. Parents are angry and tired of waiting for action”) reporting the pitiful state of playing fields for youth and adults.

Anyone who has cared to have a look knows that the few public playing fields in Miami Dade and the municipalities are chronically over-used. The issue doesn't rise to the urgent public health and welfare threshold of drinking water (as in the watershed study), but still, it is a very important quality of life indicator.

The same way that the county commission has ignored the broader need to coordinate recreational space and budgets with municipalities serving youth sports, it has also failed to protect public health and welfare related to future watershed and drinking water needs.

“They had rocks the size of my husband’s fist on the field”, is how one soccer mom of an 8 year old girl described the pitiful conditions at the YMCA youth soccer program at David Fairchild fields in South Miami, that have been a disgrace for nearly two decades.

And for as long, the Miami Dade county commission has let the protections of our drinking water wellfields slip away, a matter the sole responsibility of the committee that Natacha Seijas has chaired.

Commissioner Seijas has time to burn in her no-show job at the YMCA (reported by Miami New Times). Instead of pandering to the political elite, she should spend a little time at the YMCA ferreting out why the County and municipalities can’t provide anything resembling adequate playing fields for Miami-Dade kids. (At least Javier Souto, a long-time county commissioner, has made playing fields in his district a priority—but why hasn’t he insisted on major parks improvements throughout the county, and made his participation in the unreformable majority a condition of his pro-development votes?)

Local governments have allowed so much profit to be extracted from neighborhoods through zoning changes benefiting developers that quality of life concerns have been lost in the dust.

(It is simply too difficult for parents to travel on over-congested roads to youth sports practices where any single accident can double or triple travel time. If you live in the eastern sections of the county and have to travel to kids’ sporting events in the west, or vice versa, fuggedaboudit.)

Today, at the county commission (or on the county website) you will see how Miami Dade County Commissioners treat our quality of life like a chop shop.

Planning watershed needs, given the likelihood of drought conditions persisting into the future, would seem to be a priority for your local government. But it’s not, apparently.

Seijas wants to kill the watershed study. She’s said so, a million times, and she inserted a little poison pill in the resolution to be addressed by the full county commission today, without remark or comment when it was on her agenda at the Government and Environment Subcommittee a few weeks ago. (That was before her all-important trip and county business to Africa, with county commissioner allies.)

In the future, we won’t have safe and affordable drinking water, thanks to your county commissioners who gave away the store.

People wonder why it is so hard to attract high-wage jobs to Miami. It is no mystery. Watch how it works, today at 2 PM.

The Miami Dade Public Muzzled Once Again! by Geniusofdespair

This note was just received from the County:

We have been notified by the Office of Commission Chairman Bruno Barreiro that the Watershed Plan is scheduled for "Time Certain" at 2:00 P.M. tomorrow, May 8th. Only Committee members present will be recognized, and limited to a three-minute comment period each.

Watch your Commissioners on TV as Natacha Seijas and some of the rest drag the Watershed Study through the mud.

Or watch it on line:
http://www.miamidade.gov/webcast/ The Webcast is down right now and I have a feeling it might be down tomorrow too. Guess who is in charge of Communication: N-A-T-A-C-H-A.

The Related Group's Loft: City Audit by Geniusofdespair

If you haven’t been keeping up with the latest scandal, check out this video clip by Brian Andrews of Channel 4 For Big Profits: Miami City Employees May Have Benefited By The City Program. The video didn’t mention the $1,000,000 the county kicked in but it is worth seeing. Photo above is Al Lorenzo who ran Manny Diaz's campaign. He got one of the "workforce units" and flipped it the same day he purchased it for a hefty profit. We taxpayers subsidized his windfall. Say thank you Al.

The city audit is due out in a month. Apparently this is a leaked partial audit. the State Attorney is also investigating.

It is my understanding that the developer actually told the City and the County that Related would not be checking income. So the County had to get the dollars for Related through a backdoor (not from HUD money). Read yesterday's Ana Menendez post on this same subject.

Make your Email Subject Line Count by Geniusofdespair

I feel like the Heloise of the internet today. I just realized I have 328 unopened emails in my personal inbox from the last 4 days. I am going through them, throwing out based on subject line, so my advice: Make that subject line count. I always like to see a date in the subject line if it is about a meeting: I am more likely to open time sensitive emails. If you are a political party: I will never open your email. And, I sure wish people would stop sending me cute things I should send to 10 friends.

Housing markets and the broader economy: sniffles, or, flu? by gimleteye

Florida mainstream media is struggling to get its hands around the biggest bust in housing markets since 1926. So you have to look elsewhere for views unfiltered by the demands of advertising revenue supported by local developers and the growth machine.

Two questions emerge as relevant to the outcome of the housing slump.

If you listen to the builders, and to the Florida legislature, those two questions are: property taxes and insurance.

That view was expressed in today’s New York Times, In Florida, a Home Market Still in Flux , “Nancy Riley, a broker in St. Petersburg and president of the Florida Association of Realtors, says the market is returning to preboom “normal conditions.” She is confident that sales would gain more ground if issues like Florida’s high property taxes and soaring post-hurricane home-insurance premiums are resolved. Then, “we will see another boom like we have never seen before.”

While property taxes and insurance are on the tip of everyone’s tongue, what should be in the pit of everyone’s stomach are two other questions: how long will it take for housing markets to recover if consumer demands substantially falters, and, if US consumer demand follows the housing markets, what will the impact be to the global economy?

The uncertainties piling up around these questions mean that there will not be another building boom in the foreseeable future, notwithstanding the determined optimism of the Florida Association of Realtors.

“Michael Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, says it could take up to three years, at the current sales rate, to deplete the huge inventory that accumulated after speculators jumped ship, new home buyers walked away from contracts and nervous sellers flooded the market.”

But the problem for future growth and investment is not just the massive piling up of unsold inventory, noted by instance in staccato quarterly warnings from publicly traded production homebuilders hemorrhaging cash in an effort to keep production homebuilding pumps and pipelines primed.

In three years at the current sales rate, the number of foreclosures on personal real estate will rise dramatically. The overhang of unsold inventory in a multi-year implosion of housing markets calls into question how upper crust markets will fare.

The NY Times noted (March 11, "Crisis Looms in Mortgages) the importance of mortgage securitization to Wall Street managers. "The issuance of mortgage-related securities, which include those backed by home-equity loans, peaked in 2003 at more than $3 trillion... Last year's issuance, reflecting as lowdown in home price appreciation, was $1.93 trillion, a slight decline from 2005... The average daily trading volume of mortgage securities issued by government agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for example, exceeded $250 billion last year. That's up from about $60 billion 2000."

The irony is that as income from securitization of home and commercial mortgages shrinks, Wall Street and hedge funds are pressing into newer, and more imaginative financial derivatives--mostly unregulated--thus preserving year-end bonuses indifferent to impacts on the direction of the economy.

More important to the broader economy is what happens, over this period of time, to families who invested far beyond the standard yardsticks for home ownership relative to disposable income. Call it the disappearing middle class.

So far, most of the damage has been noted in the subprime mortgage sector, where more than 50 financial institutions have closed down, including New Century Financial which was, as recently as six months ago, touted as a good buying opportunity by one of the nation’s premier investment managers.

The over-leveraged US consumer can be urged to borrow more, with lower interest rates, cutting property taxes or insurance reform in Florida and everywhere else. But the Wall Street Journal (May 4, 2007 "Boom Times for Productivity Lose Steam") reports that in the first quarter, gross domestic product grew at its slowest pace in four years and productivity has also slowed.

The Orlando Sentinel tells the story from a different angle ("Perfect storm' of debt puts Floridians in bankrupcy", May 3, 2007). "Some people are just drowning in everything, whether it's debt, job loss, divorce or some health issue," says George Janas, a credit counselor and managing partner of Orlando-based Consumer Debt Counselers... They've been living so close to the edge financially--when something big hits, it's enough to put them behind,' he said, 'And they can't catch up again.'"

Personal bankrupcy cases in the Orlando area have jumped nearly 80 percent in the first quarter, compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the Sentinel.

The growth machine that ran away with the US economy was built on real estate development, just as today's slowdown is almost entirely accounted for by the housing industry. It chewed up wetlands, the environment, and the quality of life for millions of urban residents in Florida. In addition, the growth machine was a political event that secured power and influence in local, state, and federal legislatures.

Miami is the index case for the fallout, its thoracic cavity filled to the point of bursting with liar loans, mortgage fraud, incestuous dealings between builders and lenders, and repetitive zoning decisions by local city and county commissioners controlled by big developers, lobbyists, and black hat lawyers.

Sunday's New York Times reports, “Today, as the gavel comes down on everything from vacant lots to multimillion-dollar estates, sales are still off and foreclosure and mortgage delinquency rates are rising. … In Miami, once the epicenter of giddy buying and selling, the inventory of unsold homes in April was up 58 percent over the same period last year, but real estate brokers and agents say there are some properties that are still attracting buyers. Smaller condo units in prime locations and large luxury condos are in demand, they say, especially those designed by a star architect and loaded with hotel services. Prices for homes on prime waterfront lots, including exclusive islands like Hibiscus and Sunset, which are favored by celebrities, are also stable.”

But how long can the upper crust remain stable, if the foundation built on the voracious appetite of the US consumer for too much debt starts to falter?

Stratospheric prices for New York City residential real estate depend on wealth generated in the financial sector of the economy—huge bonuses, for instance, to Wall Street managers taking a slice from securitized, collateral debt obligations that fueled the growth machine, running now on fumes.

“The glut of high-priced condos in Miami will intensify this year with some 8,000 additional units expected to be completed and 12,000 more coming online in 2008, according to Jack McCabe of McCabe Research and Consulting in Deerfield Beach, Fla.,” the New York Times reports. “To a certain degree, the upper crust hasn’t been affected,” Mr. McCabe said. “But that’s a lot of housing stock, and I question whether every multimillionaire in the world will want to buy a second or third residence in Miami.”

But that isn’t the question. The question concerns the point made in the Sunday Times business section, Does it even matter if the U.S. has a cold , “Consumer spending in the United States, which is still on the rise, accounts for an astonishing 20 percent of the global economy. David Rosenberg, an economist at Merrill Lynch, said “A U.S. recession would dramatically slow growth in China and India.”

Consumer spending hasn’t fallen for a single quarter since the fourth quarter of 1991. With so much of the US economy dependent on crater housing markets, how long can consumer spending remain unaffected?

The anxiety of over-leveraged homeowners, weighed down by for sale signs that will take years to disappear, could push the Fed to lower interest rates later this year. This time around, lower interest rates will not re-prime the growth machine pump any more than insurance or property tax reform in Florida.

We are in an economic cycle and a downdraft made all the more severe by the nation’s fiscal policies that promoted financial bubbles in the first place, bubbles now replicated in China's sizzling property markets.

The US equity exchanges, clearly, don’t care that in Florida, condo sales fell 32 percent in March and single-family existing homes were off 28 percent, compared with the same period a year ago, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is agnostic which country generates profits for multinationals corporations, so long as they keep coming.

It should be noted, too, that in Florida hurricane season starts June 1st.

Must Read: Ana Menendez Column in the Miami Herald Today by Geniusofdespair

In Investors reap windfall from affordability Ana Menenez asks and answers:
"Does affordable housing have a future in Miami? Not so long as politicians blindly throw money at a system that gleefully embraces greed and fantasy."

I wrote about this subject May 4th, but here is a reporter with real credentials writing about it: Masterful! My favorite part was when Ana Menendez commented on the City of Miami and Miami Dade County giving $1,000,000 each to Jorge Perez’s Related Group:

“So the City of Miami donated one million hard-earned tax dollars toward construction of The Loft Condominiums on Northeast Third Street. The county handed over another $1 million to The Related Group, the developer, which was really generous considering The Related Group's 2005 revenues were $3.25 billion.

"It makes as much sense as me donating half my paycheck to Warren Buffett.”

And she is right about that! Pulling quotes out of a really good column isn’t fair but look at this one:

“Or maybe city leaders were itching for a supporting role in the great affordable housing scandal.”

This column is an example of why you should get the Anemic Miami Herald. It is the brilliance we get once in awhile. Read her column!

I have to do one last quote, because Herald columns will be gone in a week and I want you to have this information:

''The intention was for workforce housing -- you know, people who are teachers, firefighters,'' County Commission Chairman Bruno Barreiro told the Herald.

"Teachers, firefighters and politically connected working class folk like lobbyist Al Lorenzo, who ran Mayor Manny Diaz's campaign. Lorenzo bought, flipped and made a cool $92,100 profit on his affordable housing investment, according to a city report."

What is with all the zeroes under our posts? by Geniusofdespair

I know you are reading...but I like your comments or else it feels like we are writing to ourselves. Zero is not a number we strive for... I always hope for at least 10 comments on a post.

Broward's Bankatlantic Center's Sound System Sucks Compared to Miami's American Airlines Arena. By Geniusofdespair

Why do I ever bother with Broward? I always get aggravated when I go there.

There is no finer version of Leon Russell’s “A Song for You” than the Herbie Hancock rendition with Christina Aguilera singing vocals. And, Aguilera singing “It’s Impossible” is pretty great too. I love her voice so I went to hear her concert at the Bankatlantic Center in Broward tonight...yes with the tennyboppers. I didn’t care, I wanted to hear Christina belt out a few songs.

The sound was so bad at Bankatlantic, I couldn’t hear the vocals clearly. I have been to many concerts at the American Airlines Arena and I have never had problems with the sound, whether it was the Rolling Stones or the MTV Awards. But tonight at the Bankatlantic, when Christina talked I couldn’t understand her words and her singing was drowned out. They played videos of people talking about Christina, you couldn’t understand them either. The sound could best be described as “blaringly, loud muffled.” The band and the backup singers over-powered Aguilera's splendid voice. I will never ever go to a concert at the Bankatlantic again, even if the tickets are free. The tickets I bought were $100 a pop, what a colossal waste of money.

P.S. And, barf, the "Pussycat Dolls" was the front band --or should I say show since all they did was dance and sing. What I won't do to hear my favorite Leon Russell song sung by the right diva.